this post was submitted on 02 Feb 2024
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Will Trudeau end up regretting his decision to walk away from electoral reform? (www.cbc.ca)
submitted 9 months ago by grte@lemmy.ca to c/canadapolitics@lemmy.ca
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[–] Evkob@lemmy.ca 22 points 9 months ago (4 children)

The 2015 federal election was the first in which I was eligible to vote. I considered voting Liberal because of the party's promises that 2015 would be the last federal election under FPTP. I ended up voting NDP. This lie has assured that I will never consider voting for the LPC.

Particularly frustrating are the comments Trudeau made to Le Devoir about the decision to not go through with electoral reform. Here's a translation of the relevant quote:

Under Harper, there were so many people unhappy with the government and with its approach that people were saying "we need electoral reform in order to no longer have governments we don't like". However, under the current system, they now have a government with which they are more satisfied. And the motivation to change the electoral system is less striking.

[–] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 11 points 9 months ago (1 children)

You decide which lie crosses the line, but broken promises are part and parcel of the political system. It's always about compromises and which compromises are critical for you. Personally very much not a fan of dropping electoral reform. That said we got a half-decent government that did a lot of useful changes over the years since 2015. It also oversaw a tumultuous pandemic fairly well all things considered. I shudder at the thought of going through the height of the pandemic with Scheer, O'Toole or pipsqueak.

[–] Hootz@lemmy.ca 3 points 9 months ago

Shhh don't bring logic into this.

[–] Sir_Osis_of_Liver@kbin.social 7 points 9 months ago (2 children)

It wasn't a lie, they did try.

The problem was, the Liberals favoured ranked ballot but would consider STV, the NDP wouldn't support anything other than MMP, the CPC wouldn't support any change, and the Bloc just wanted to play spoiler. The Liberals were in a minority on the committee. The only system they could get agreement on was MMP, which is what the committee recommended.

MMP is good for proportionality, but it can have issues with party lists, members not tied to geographic areas can be difficult to remove, and responsibility for geographic areas is shared, making it easier to dodge. Whether MMP would even pass constitutional muster is an open question. The biggest drawback is explaining the system to a general public who only have known a one vote, one member, one riding system. Ranked or STV are much easier to explain and the current ridings wouldn't need to change.

Anyway, the Bloc and CPC were going to campaign hard on calling any change a Liberal power grab. Internal polling (not the dog and pony show web poll) showed that most voters didn't care about the issue, but the "Liberal Power Grab" would gain traction. With the CPC promising to roll back any changes, the whole thing looked more and more like an effort in futility.

In the end, they decided to take their lumps and move on. After all the heat they took for even trying, as far as the Liberals are concerned, the issue is dead. Basically a similar story arc as every time a provincial government has looked at it.

[–] swordgeek@lemmy.ca 6 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I'm sorry, but their attempt was in bad faith. They set up a committee that was doomed to fail. When the committee came up with some meaningful results, the Liberals ignored them and said "we can't agree on anything!"

Frankly, MMP is a great addition to a voting system, not a replacement. STV with a small number of MMP seats would be ideal, but straight STV would be a vast improvement.

This infographic is pretty straightforward.

[–] Sir_Osis_of_Liver@kbin.social 1 points 9 months ago

Nope. This is strictly a partisan construct.

MMP is the most proportional, also the one most likely to run into constitutional challenges, and the one most likely to fail in a referendum due simply to how difficult it is to explain to people not interested in electoral reform, ie, almost everyone.

If the NDP had agreed to go to ranked ballot or single transferable vote as at least an interim measure, something could have happened. NDP went for broke and rolled snake eyes.

Electoral reform is dead for at least the next 10-20 years. The Liberals are feeling burnt for trying. The NDP are as far from power as ever. The CPC just won't. And the Bloc will remain spoilers.

[–] m0darn@lemmy.ca 2 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I think you and I may have discussed this in the past but it's my opinion that the reason the liberals were in a minority in the committee is because they didn't want electoral reform. They should have just said heres a binding referendum on how the next election will be held.

[–] Sir_Osis_of_Liver@kbin.social 1 points 9 months ago

They knew that if they didn't get buy-in from the other parties, the next time say the CPC government got in, they were going to go back to FPTP. Now they were very unlikely to get the CPC on board, but having the NDP and Bloc would have made it more politically difficult for the CPC to roll back changes.

The CPC and Bloc were absolutely going to run on any change being a Liberal power grab. Being a minority on the committee helped defuse that argument.

Any sort of referendum was going to fail. It was the CPC's poison pill. All of the parties were running internal polls telling them the same thing.

[–] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 6 points 9 months ago

Well, his comment makes sense. And this comment also highlights why we're talking about it again. There's a somewhat unpopular government in power and people begin thinking about electoral reform. Perhaps now is the time for passing electoral reform. 😂

[–] ryan213@lemmy.ca 3 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I don't think he'll regret it as PP will never bring it up either. Maybe the NDP will bring it up but that would mean they'll have to promise something as well.

[–] Evkob@lemmy.ca 11 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Yeah, the Cons have no reason at all to move away from FPTP, it's probably the only electoral system under which they have any chances at power.

I could see the Libs bringing it up again in the future, I don't think they'd go for anything other than ranked ballots though, which would obviously benefit the centrist Liberal party.

[–] ryan213@lemmy.ca 6 points 9 months ago

Trudeau: third time's the charm!

LOL

[–] psvrh@lemmy.ca 10 points 9 months ago (1 children)

No.

Because if he passed meaningful reform, there would never be another Liberal majority. They'd prefer to exchange majorities with the CPC every few years, than to denied exclusive access to the levers of power for ever.

[–] swordgeek@lemmy.ca 3 points 9 months ago

Just to be clear here...

if he passed meaningful reform, there would never be another ~~Liberal~~ majority.

Unless an actual majority of Canadians supported a single party, we would not see another majority government. This is horrid for the two leading parties because they don't get to act as dictators for four years at a time, but would be wonderful for the health of the nation.

Majority governments are poison.

[–] swordgeek@lemmy.ca 4 points 9 months ago

Nope.

Trudeau is primarily in his own authority. It's unlikely the Liberals will win the next election with him at the helm, regardless of the electoral system we have.

His time is basically done, and he knows it. Reform wouldn't extend his leadership or power by any significant amount, so he doesn't fucking care.

I was hoping that his ego would lead him to introduce real reform so he would go down in history with Tommy Douglas and others as an architect of the nation, but it feels like the party won't give him that much rope.

If he does, he'll almost certainly introduce AV which is little more than a variant of FPTP, and won't help us much at all.