I remember saying that there was no reason to believe the explosive growth we've seen from AI would continue, and indeed no way to be sure that our current path in AI and LLM research would not eventually plateau and add a lot of years onto the way to AGI as we essentially go back to the drawing board to figure out a new path.
Got blasted by the GPT hype machine for even daring to suggest that such a thing could potentially happen, possibly. Feels good to have Bill Gates suggest the possibility too!
There's literally been a website you could go on that opens a chat with either a human or GPT, but you do not know which one, and then you get like 30s to figure it out by chatting with them. Then you need to guess if it was a human or an AI you just talked to. And people get it wrong all the time.
Edit: link to the research that came from that https://www.ai21.com/blog/human-or-not-results