humanspiral

joined 1 year ago
[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 3 days ago

do you really think that even when Ai will start (if ever) to generate profits these will be able to repay all the investements done today

First, actual investments that have been done are relatively modest. It's still a substantial portion of TSMC fab capacity. All of the deal announcements for datacenters are 50x-100x growth. I doubt all of this capacity will be built for a long time. Coding/reasoning models can have more demand, but openAI (most of the deal announcements) is not that good at those. 100x power growth is also 200x every 2 years token output growth, and if models get better, users need less tokens by getting it right on fewer tries.

Second, they are losing money at current levels. Oracle leaked it lost $100m on existing AI datacenter operating losses. Coreweave is fully levered at 10% interest rates. Everyone is operating like social media startups from 10-20 years ago. Only revenue growth and market share, and being cool, matters. Enshittification will come much later.

Third, datacenters are fundamentally flawed, and local AI has competitive advantage to them. AI is good at datamining the datacenter traffic for output that could be profitable to steal.

Fourth, the only business model is US military and disinformation control. They will pay infinitity, and support infinity investment. Giant datacenters are about Skynet. Not market profits. That US government would protect their oligarch partners in stealing your ideas/llm outputs, and amplify current media's messaging that anti-genocide views are treasonous anti-American sentiment.

how many resources this growth has taken from others places…

If all the money goes towards skynet, energy bills for everyone else will go up, including what little manufacturers there are in US. Insisting on war on China and Russia is helped by forced unemployment, and fascist response to the unemployed's uppityness. Datacenter AI's primary certain value is as a new cold war Arms and disinformation race.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 4 days ago

This is disinformation. They are cheap because of abundance in materials, easy/advanced factory construction, competition, and advanced leadership in robotics. It's just pure smear, not only to baselessly say slave labour exists in Xinxiang, but that it also applies to more prosperous provinces where cars are made.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Serious question; how much does China subsidize EV sales to glut markets and buy market share? I’m guessing it’s non-zero.

Probably less than our subsidies.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 8 points 4 days ago (1 children)

There is/should be a lot of room for compromise.

A mix of "reasonable" tariffs and quotas to start, to make Chinese EVs competitive without destroying domestic manufacturing is a good path. Canada needs investment. Whether foreign auto makers do it, following through on previous commitments, shutting out China can be a reward for them.

Without choosing to provide value cars to Canadians, Canada could offer agriculture for Chinese (solar) energy trade. Pemitting them to boost capacity even more.

Instead of begging the US to buy (and own through investment) our resources, Chinese development would help significantly as well.

Corrupt ideology programmed into Canadians is bad for Canada. We need new friends instead of abusers, and the only reform of an abuser possible comes when they beg for forgiveness when you flirt with new friends.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 2 points 4 days ago

that is how OpenAI measures all of its deals. the GPU providers DGAF about that measure, and "real deals" will be for x number of gpu's instead. OpenAI PR make stonk go up, is vagueness everyone else seems to enjoy. It makes 0 sense in any deals these companies can make. It just scares the rest of us for how much the power bill go brrrr.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 4 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

This is easy. US and EU and Ukraine and Taiwan on Satan's side. UK playing both sides. France, DPRK, ROK, Palestine, Israel all on Jesus side.

Answer is choose China. From Brother where are't thou... They are the only ones remaining unaffiliated.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 4 days ago

Just defining what soft power means. Soft extortion and bribery just as bad as extortion and bribery.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 5 days ago

They are comparing a fairly high bicycle+rider weight of 100kg vs a 2000kg car.

A better way to represent the relationship is per mile of trips.

The actual relationship, I think, should be the difference between psi per road contact patch times tires, or at least per tire. On per tire basis times double the tires, a car would wear road 20k times more. Enough for bike to go around the world for each car mile driven.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 5 days ago

Zionism controls US and its media. Nearly all politicians in US are Zionists even if just a handful are Jews. I'm not the one who said all jews are genocidal zionazi supporters. You have no right to try denying subhuman demonic evil zionazi supremacist control over the US by pretending, passive-agressive supremacistly, me or anyone else is making a remark about Jews.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca -1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

If older computer that works fine, I'd get a new 780m (Amd) mini pc. They support 3+ monitors, have 2 network ports allowing to "daisy chain" the old computer. No transfering of anything, or worrying about getting old stuff still working.

Deskflow is a mouse/keyboard sharing app. If you keep old computer in sleep mode you don't need extra keyboard/mouse, but power outages, mean that if you don't have a floor standing old pc you can stack old keyboard/mouse on top of, then you will need to occasionally plug in keyboard and mouse into old computer to get deskflow restarted (if you don't put it as autostart).

It's far more convenient than dual booting. Can use resources from both computers in network, and seemless mouse/keyboard focus. Switching 1 monitor for occasional use is better than dual booting, because rebooting on older computers especially is slow.

Deskflow needs a modern kernal linux distribution. Ubuntu 24.04 is recent enough. Linux mint has not upgraded kernel yet. AFAIU, the only difference between mint (recommended here) and Ubuntu is a slightly prettier version of kde.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (1 children)

OpenAI alone has 20gw of datacenter/gpu commitments. 20x entire current US corporate deployments. Sure as fuck, sweet US military/NSA overpayment for datacenter time is coming. Not sure AGI is needed to decide (family guy meme) "if it's brown, flush it down" or "sink any boat you find in Carribean sea". LLMs today would do pretty well at "make up a Department of War memo for backstories justifying all the people we killed today."

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

deserts, for example.

floating ocean platforms as well

 

Canada relies on foreign auto executives for its auto industry. It already provides huge taxpayer subsidies per job. There is certainly a possible future where all of those foreign loyal companies side with US to destroy Canadian auto production/investment.

  1. China could help save Canadian auto industry by providing motors and batteries for Canadian made EVs. Chinese investment to make goods from Canadian resources in Canada is a path for scale that includes global export potential of autos and other industrial goods to whole globe including China.

  2. If it doesn't make economic sense to make our own tube socks, it doesn't make sense to make overly expensive cars, either. There is a stronger national security argument for apparel, that needs yearly replacements, than solar, batteries, and autos that last 20+ years. More so, when they are not dependent on continuous international fuel supply chains/geopolitics.

Pressure on foreign executives to support Canadian production includes access to Canadian market. The stability of status quo will appeal to most people. But the threat/plan B of cooperation with China is both a path to manufacturing and resource FDI paid by China instead of taxpayers, and better quality of life through better value goods.

 

emissions down in last 10 months of 2024. Very likely that trailing 12 months are down too (not covered in article, but something they will pick up)

 

28% growth over 2023. Forecast for 2025 is 215-250GW, down, but original forecast from same agency/report for 2024 was only 220GW (achieved 26%+ higher than target). March 2025 report shows 42% increase in solar capacity (or production actually) over last year, at end of February. 930gw. 33gw in 2 months is behind forecast on linear basis, but this is slow period, traditionally . Production can go up higher than capacity if it was sunnier than last year.

Solar module output expanded 13.5% to 588 GW. Forecast for 2025 is up to 583gw. It exported 235gw of solar panels. up 13% in 2024. Europe was down for the year, but up in last quarter. https://www.infolink-group.com/energy-article/solar-topic-china-pv-module-exports-yoy-growth-all-regions-except-europe

500gw per year is enough to match double Germany's annual electricity production. Not that Germany isn't already a leader in renewables, but just that it is a significant permanent displacement of fossil fuel electricity, and with EVs, of Oil.

The important metric of energy transition is the global pace. Whether it's all done by one country doesn't actually matter.

 

Panama, afaik doesn't get paid. Just gets continued invasion threats no matter how much they bend over.

El Salvador could double its GDP if they can just keep 1.75M prisoners alive. ($35B/year)

 

Section is towards middle. They don't disclose how much the surplus is, but the obvious conclusion is that if Canadians never buy another US made vehicle, then it is a net reduction in jobs/revenue for US makers even if entire Canadian auto sector is destroyed. It is a significant ask for US investment if end result is losing money/US jobs for it.

 

Link is Cleveland cliffs closing 2 iron mines. Demand from Canada is a factor.

Nucor, US Steel, and Cleveland Cliffs have all forecasted bigger losses for next quarter despite the extortion pricing that tariffs give them. Narrative is that steel using US manufacturing will not take off as promised.

Canadian policy needs to make sure that damage is maximized.

 

What is Canada/Ontario doing?

 

Best technology for coal electricity capture costs $10/watt (close to new on budget nuclear plants), and only captures 65% of emissions. A better "free" climate strategy would be to put them in "backup peaker" mode for renewables and run them at far less than 35% of year.

DAC can work only if price of carbon is $300/ton ($3/gallon gasoline). Still, 100% renewables is cheapest path to avoiding those taxes, but afterwards, DAC can hope to pay for itself.

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