playoffcomputer

Latest from the Commodore64. Usual caveats with the numbers and I don't factor in tie-games as a possibility into the calculations. Apologies to the vocal group that doesn't like some of my 3-letter abbreviations.

• PHI, SFF, DET, DAL, MIN could all lose out and still make the playoffs. Other than PHI, the others shouldn't bank on that as a credible strategy.
• ATL, CAR, TBB, CHI, GBP, NYG, and LAR could mathematically sneak in with 6 wins. NOS, WAS, ARI, and SEA need at least 7 to have any kind of chance.
• If TBB wins out to reach 10 wins they're in, which is the lowest "assured" number of any team. C64 says ATL, NOS, and MIN need 11 wins to avoid any chance of being left out. DET, DAL, PHI, SFF, and SEA look like they need 12.
• CAR, CHI, GBP, NYG, WAS, LAR, and ARI do not control their own destiny.
• The "reasonable" win number that has decent chances of making the playoffs is 9, although 8 is waiting in the shadows to takeover the most likely status.
• Computer projections for wins likely to be good enough to take the divisions (i.e. roughly 2nd place + 1W or winning tiebreaker) are: NFC East 13 wins, North 10 wins, South 8-9 wins, West 10-11 wins.
• Looks like the Eagles clinch a spot this week with a win and a Rams loss. I penciled it out since that seemed weird that a Rams loss would matter as PHI beat them earlier and it looks like without the Rams losing, the possibilitiy would remain of a multi-team tie for all the wildcard spots occuring with the Rams winning the multi-team tiebreaker before h2h with the Eagles became relevant. At least that's the answer I'm going with because my head now hurts after trying to pencil it out.
• Panthers and Cardinals eliminated from contention with losses.
• My subjective analysis says get to 10 wins to be safe with 8 wins having at least moderate hope. Using that criteria, I have PHI (duh), SFF, DET, and DAL being "realistically in" as they could play Chargers football and still get there, and I have CAR, ARI, CHI, WAS, NYG as being "realistically out" as even 8 wins is either impossible for some or a tall order for the rest.
• For the teams in the middle of the fight, as in not on my realistically in or out lists above, there are four intra-conference games this week (SEA v DAL, DET v NOS, CAR v TBB, SFF v PHI), and the following outcomes would be the most beneficial to the non-combatant contenders as shown: Everyone better off with a DAL win over SEA; Everyone better off with a CAR win over TBB; LAR & SEA better off with a NOS win over DET, everyone else better off with a DET win; Computer says ATL better off with a SFF win over PHI and everyone else better off with a PHI win. I wasn't going to argue with the C64 on why that is for ATL.

Since the AFC was done after Sunday I fired up the BBC Micro to try to figure some stuff out. Apologies to the purists for my use of odd three-letter abbreviations for some teams. Usual caveats with the numbers and I don't factor in tie-games as a possibility in the calculations as they make everything unreadable for such a rare event.

• BAL, CLE, PIT, MIA, KCC, and JAC could all lose out and still have a chance to make the playoffs.
• The BBCM says BUF, NEP, LVR, LAC, TEN, and IND need to reach 7 wins to have any mathematical chance. It says CIN, NYJ, DEN, and HOU would need 8 wins.
• Getting to 12 wins should assure a playoff spot.
• By the powers of public school math, the teams that can't reach 12 wins aka CIN, BUF, NEP, NYJ, LVR, LAC, TEN do not currently control their own destiny.
• The computer thingy spit out a realistically likely win number for a playoff spot (i.e. wildcard) being barely under 10 for the first time this season. Call it 10 to likely be good enough without tiebreakers coming into play, 9 is risky but looking certainly reasonable now.
• Semi-reasonable projections for wins likely to take the divisions (i.e. roughly 2nd place + 1W or winning tiebreaker) are: AFC East 9-10 wins, North 11-12 wins, South 10-11 wins, West 10-11 wins.
• Looks like the Patriots will be eliminated with a loss and basically there being football on Sunday, computer says a win by PIT, TEN, HOU, CLE, or CIN does it, I didn't take the time to triple-manually-check that intel though.
• My subjective analysis has BAL being "realistically in" as they could drunken stupor to another win or two to be safe, NEP, TEN, LAC, NYJ and LVR being "realistically out" as they would need divine intervention to get to a win total that has a reasonable chance. Obviously this is subject to change if any of them start on an actual winning streak journey.
• For the teams in the middle of the fight, as in not on either of my nice or naughty lists above, there are four intra-conference games (LAC v NEP, IND v TEN, CIN v JAC, DEN v HOU), and the BBCM says the non-combatant contenders are better off with the following outcomes: Everyone better off with NEP, TEN, and JAC wins (slamming the door on LAC and CIN while bringing IND back down to earth in the wildcard race); For the DEN/HOU game, computer says BUF, MIA, and JAC are better off with a DEN win, CIN, CLE, PIT, KCC, IND are better off with a HOU win.

The Commodore64 is taking the week off so I had the Tandy1000 do the intel gathering and it spit out the following tidbits that may be of interest...

NFC

• Scenarios in which 6 wins somehow made the playoffs were found for ATL, CAR, TBB, CHI, GBP, MIN, NYG, WAS, LAR, and ARI. Now I personally wouldn't as a head coach aim for that mark and call it good, but it is mathematically possible. T1000 said NOS and SEA had to hit 7W at a minimum. Usual caveat there could be some lottery ticket that eluded it in its scenario searching.
• DET, PHI, DAL, SFF could in theory be coached by Arthur Smith (i.e. not win any games) for the rest of the season and still make it in.
• T1000 said if ATL and TBB hit 11 wins they would be assured of a playoff spot. I believe if either hit 11 wins (i.e. win out) they would by default be the NFC South champion). It said NOS, DET, MIN, DAL, PHI, SFF, SEA would need 12 wins to avoid any wackadoodle scenario that leaves them out.
• CAR, CHI, GBP, NYG, WAS, LAR, and ARI do not control their own destiny.
• Projected number of wins most likely to be good for a wildcard spot is hovering between 9 and 10, with 9 having decent odds of at least a tiebreaker situation.
• Projected number of wins likely to be needed to win each division (i.e. 2nd place + 1W): East 11, North 10-11, South 9, West 10. The East number seems low to me but I ain't going to risk the T1000 going on strike over an argument.
• Computer didn't see any division or playoff clinching scenarios for week 12 nor any that would eliminate a team from playoff contention. The Panthers live to fight another week. I think the Eagles could possibly clinch a playoff spot by next week.
• In my subjective world of what is realistic, I have PHI and DET as IN for they could drunken stumble to 10 wins which "should" be safe and CAR, ARI, NYG, CHI, WAS as OUT as it would be either impossible or unlikely given their current state of football playing ability for them to hit 9 wins which is probably what would be needed to have much real-world chances.

AFC

• Scenarios in which 7 wins could make it into the playoffs were found for CIN, BUF, NEP, NYJ, LVR, LAC, TEN, and IND. Indications are that CLE, PIT, MIA, DEN, KCC, and HOU would need to hit 8 wins for any chance. BAL and JAC are at their minimums already.
• 12 wins was spit out as the number that assures a playoff spot for BAL, CIN, CLE, BUF, MIA, DEN, KCC, IND, JAC, and HOU. T1000 said PIT needed 13, same caveat it might have missed something for PIT and 12.
• NEP, NYJ, LVR, LAC, and TEN do not control their own destiny.
• Projected number of wins most likely to be good for a wildcard spot is sitting at 10.
• Projected number of wins likely to be needed to win each division (i.e. 2nd place + 1W): East 10, North 11-12, South 10-11, West 10-11.
• There do not appear to be any division or playoff clinching scenarios for week 12 nor any that would eliminate a team from contention.
• In my subjective world of what is realistic, I don't have any teams that I would put money down as being IN that could limp without an offensive line to 11 wins and be safe, but I have four that are realistically OUT as getting to 10 wins would either be impossible or quite the feat, NEP, TEN, LAC, and NYJ.

The Commodore64 spit out the following tidbits:

• Showing the power of having good tiebreaker stats, the Bengals at 5-4 with a horrible conference record have roughly the same odds as the Colts at 5-5 who have a much better conference record (and a win over the Texans which obviously the Bengals do not).
• Scenarios in which 7 wins somehow made the playoffs were found for BUF, MIA, NE, NYJ, DEN, LV, LAC, TEN, IND, JAX, HOU. It didn't find any with win totals that low for BAL, CIN, CLE, PIT, KC. As I mentioned in the NFC version, while the C64 searches hard for this intel, there could be a struck by lighting while winning powerball scenario that eluded it.
• It said 12 wins should assure a team of making the playoffs no matter what else happens, although it claims that CIN and PIT need 13. Same caveat on this as above.
• With the above numbers, NE and TEN definitely do not control their own destiny to make the playoffs, but it appears all the other teams still do.
• The number of wins most likely to be good for a wildcard looks like 10.
• Projected number of wins likely to be needed to win each division (i.e. 2nd place +1): North 11-12 heavy on the 12; East 10; West 10-11 favoring 11; South 10-11 also favoring 11.
• There are no division or playoff clinching scenarios and no scenarios that would eliminate anyone from playoff contention for week 11. Patriots don't have much sand left in the hourglass though.
• Contrary to the NFC in which some relative clarity has appeared, the AFC is a quagmire wrapped in a WWE deathmatch, really only the Titans and Patriots are realistically out and nobody is at the point where they could faceplant themselves into enough wins to make it.

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With the NFC retiring for the week by Sunday afternoon I was able to fire up the Commodore64 to run things in that conference for the next week.

Notes, observations, and possible facts:

• The Vikings at 6-4 have slightly better odds than the Cowboys at 6-3 to make the playoffs (using 50/50 coin flip probabilities for each game) owing to their far better conference record and h2h wins over some possible contenders the Cowboys do not have.
• Computer found some wacky paths to the playoffs with just 6 wins for ATL, CAR, TBB, GBP, MIN, NYG, ARI. Everybody else it didn't see anything under 7 wins **. DET and PHI have already hit that mark and could theorectically not show up anymore and still make it.
• It spit out ATL as the only team that could reach as few as 11 wins and be guaranteed a playoff spot (if ATL wins out they become the NFC South champions). It said NOS, TBB, DET, MIN, DAL, PHI, SFF, SEA if reach 12 wins would make the playoffs no matter what **.
• CAR, CHI, GBP, NYG, WAS, LAR, ARI definitively do not control their own destiny. Everyone else likely still does **.
• The win number most realistically likely to be good enough for at least a wildcard spot is 9.5. Since that is difficult to do, call it 10 should be safe with 9 having decent odds of sneaking in or being in a tiebreak situation.
• Mathematically likely number of wins needed to win each division (2nd place +1W or win tiebreak) is around: East 11-12, North 10-11, South 9-10, West 10-11.
• There are no playoff clinching or eliminating scenarios for week 11. My program doesn't do seeds, just in or out. I also don't factor in the possibility of tie games, at least until the last week or so) as it makes things incomphrensible for something with so little chance of happening.
• Bye weeks make this a little fuzzy, but it looks like the absolute earliest PHI could clinch a playoff spot is in 3 weeks.
• The odds of an NFC South team competing for the wildcard are, technically speaking, not good.

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** The C64 runs an awful lot of scenarios and has some semi-logic trying to hunt down these numbers and pin them down, but at this stage of the season it does not run through every last possible scenario of the bazillion left, so while it can definitively tell what teams do not control their own destiny, and the other numbers marked with an asterisk are very very solid, there might be some one in 5 bazillion scenario(s) in which they are not perfectly perfect and there may be some unlikely scenario in which a team it shows as controlling its own destiny actually does not. It does do far more intensive calculations than simple magic number calculations which don't factor in the effects of team B playing team C have on team A, fwiw.

AFC

• Patriots, at least for now, are the first team in the AFC to lose control over their own destiny (this can be rejuvenated with wins and things falling back their way).
• There don't appear to be any scenarios where reaching 12 wins does not make the playoffs.
• There are still some scenarios possible in which 7 wins sneaks in.
• Computer says most likely number of wins needed to get a wildcard spot is between 10 or 11, leaning 10.

NFC

• Bears and Panthers joined the Cardinals in, at least for now, no longer controlling their own destiny. The Giants, however, at 2-6 appear to still COD.
• As with AFC, reaching 12 wins means playoffs no matter what.
• There are some far flung scenarios possible in which just 6 wins gets in.
• Computer says most likely number of wins needed to get a wildcard spot is between 9 and 10.
• This is a rough justice look at the calculations, but it appears the soonest the Eagles could clinch a playoff spot is in four weeks if a lot of things went their way.