theBronzeShoe

joined 1 year ago
[–] theBronzeShoe@feddit.org 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

No one is arguing that Europe should avoid involvement in the Middle East; the question is how Europe should engage. The notion that further antagonizing Iran or destabilizing the Middle East, especially through direct conflict, would somehow benefit European interests is not just deeply flawed; it is delusional.

The moral argument against Iran’s regime is beyond dispute. We can all agree that the regime is reprehensible, but we must also carefully assess the direct repercussions for European interests:

  1. Economic Fallout: Europe’s energy security and trade routes depend on Middle Eastern stability. A major conflict would disrupt oil and gas supplies, send energy prices soaring, and fuel inflation at a time when European economies are already fragile. The 2022 energy crisis demonstrated just how vulnerable Europe is to regional instability. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz means any escalation risks severing critical supply lines. If Europe becomes reliant on the US for regional stability, it effectively becomes a hostage to American policy.

  2. Migration and Security: Instability in the Middle East has repeatedly triggered mass displacement and migration waves toward Europe. A collapsed Iranian regime or prolonged conflict would likely intensify this, straining European borders, resources, and political cohesion. The result would be a new migration crisis, further empowering far-right parties and undermining European institutions.

  3. Terrorism and Radicalization: A destabilized Iran or a regional power vacuum could embolden extremist groups, increasing the risk of terrorism in Europe. For all its flaws, Iran’s current regime at least acts as a counterweight to groups like ISIS. Its collapse could unleash chaos that spills over into Europe through radicalized networks or direct attacks. European civilians would likely pay the price for this war and, in effect, for Israel’s foreign policy objectives.

  4. Diplomatic Isolation: Europe’s global influence rests on its ability to act as a mediator and uphold international law. Openly advocating for regime change or conflict (without a clear plan for the aftermath) would alienate partners, erode Europe’s moral standing, and tie it to hardline US or Israeli policies that many Europeans oppose. It would also complicate negotiations on issues like nuclear proliferation or regional conflicts. Moreover, this war lacks legal justification. Spain’s position is perfectly understandable, especially when considering the broader context of US politics, which must be factored in, given that the US is driving the war effort.

  5. Strategic Dependence: Europe is not the US; it lacks the military or economic leverage to unilaterally shape outcomes in the Middle East. Antagonizing Iran would force Europe to either blindly align with US-Israeli actions (losing autonomy) or face retaliation (cyberattacks, proxy conflicts, or economic pressure) without the means to respond effectively. This underscores Europe’s vulnerability in securing trade routes in the short term, before it can develop independent capabilities.

  6. Long-Term Instability: Regime change rarely leads to stable, pro-Western democracies; more often, it creates failed states or hostile governments. A fragmented Iran could become a haven for warlords, extremists, or rival powers like Russia or China (none of which serve European interests). Even among Iranian supporters of liberal reforms, there is widespread contempt for the West. Europe gains nothing by being lumped in with the US and becoming a target for a new generation of Iranian terrorists.

  7. Rising Oil Prices and Russian War Funding: Instability in the Middle East inevitably drives up global oil prices, which directly bolsters Russia’s war economy. Higher oil revenues enable Moscow to sustain and even expand its military mobilization, placing both Europe and Ukraine in an even more precarious strategic position.

In short, while the current Iranian regime is deeply problematic, the war unleashed by Trump and the Republican Party (and the potential collapse of Iran) would pose far greater risks to Europe than the status quo. The prudent course is de-escalation, diplomacy, and pushing for reform, not betting on chaos.

US politics are absolutely relevant here: The US is the driving force behind this escalation, and Europe cannot ignore this reality. Trump is desperate to bury the Epstein scandal and hopes a war and terrorism will distract from his economic policy failures. Leaks suggest that top Republican circles around Trump are hoping to provoke a crisis that could justify martial law and greater control over elections, or even their suspension. Meanwhile, Big Tech is aggressively lobbying Washington to take a stand against European regulation, as seen in the recent exchange between Musk and the Spanish government. The US is well aware of how damaging this war would be for Europe, and very likely is counting on it to fragment the EU and sow division.

And you think Spain, or any reasonable nation, should not condemn these attacks?

[–] theBronzeShoe@feddit.org 12 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

This is conflation and false equivalence. You are bundling together Hezbollah’s actions, Iranian drones in Ukraine, and Iran’s internal repression as if they’re all the same threat. Each issue is distinct and requires its own response. Hezbollah operates semi-independently, Iran’s drone exports are part of a separate conflict, and domestic repression is a human rights issue. You and your propaganda are trying your best to create a misleading picture of a single, unified enemy, which can justify broad military action rather than targeted, diplomatic solutions. The bigger risk is that this kind of framing escalates tensions instead of resolving them. Treating all these issues as one ignores the complexity of each and can lead to overreach or unintended consequences. A more effective approach is to address each problem on its own terms (through diplomacy, sanctions, or multilateral cooperation) rather than treating them as part of a monolithic threat. Then again, if republicans were ever interested in peace they wouldn't have ripped the nuclear agreement with Iran. Which they did despite no evidence of a nuclear weapons program after it was halted.

[–] theBronzeShoe@feddit.org 17 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (7 children)

Is dying for Israeli foreign policy goals now centrism?

[–] theBronzeShoe@feddit.org 4 points 1 month ago

Kinda yes, this trade agreement does not include the kind of investor-State arbitration (ISDS) we saw in TTIP. Its dispute settlement provisions are different and do not give individual companies the right to sue a government for regulatory decisions. It's much more like what happens in the WTO.

In fact, the treaty doesn’t even regulate investor-to-state dispute settlement between investors and states. On this topic, it just focuses on state-to-state dispute mechanisms for covered provisions, WTO style from my understanding.

The treaty discusses a rebalancing mechanism in the dispute settlement chapter. So, a party state may to take counter-measures if a covered measure by the other nullifies or substantially impairs benefits. So with this treaty, corporations have no standing to sue against national policy.

Still, any investment protections that apply for EU investors in Mercosur countries (or vice versa) will continue to derive from existing bilateral investment treaties (the BITs) between individual EU countries and Mercosur partners, not from the EU–Mercosur trade deal itself. These BITs are still valid until their expiration (if it exists), or a party terminates it. But again, these are separate treaties from this trade agreement.

 

The ideas here in this post are not without precedent. I look up to initiaves like Gaia-X with cautious optimism. However, I believe it is important, nevertheless, to put them out in the public and discuss them ever so often.

Like roads, ports, and power grids, data centers have become critical infrastructure. They underpin almost every function of a modern economy: commerce, communication, healthcare, public administration, defense, and scientific research. Treating them as optional or purely private assets no longer reflects economic reality. The question is therefore not whether they are essential, but whether it is prudent to rely almost exclusively on private, often foreign, providers to operate them.

There are two compelling reasons for the state to offer a public option in data center and cloud infrastructure (amongst others).

First, a public option would introduce natural competitive pressure into a market that is increasingly concentrated. Hyperscale cloud providers benefit from extreme economies of scale, network effects, and high switching costs, which together weaken meaningful price competition. This creates a real risk of price gouging, vendor lock-in, and unilateral changes to terms of service that users, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and public institutions, are powerless to resist. A state-backed alternative does not need to dominate the market to be effective; it only needs to exist as a credible option to discipline pricing and behavior across the sector.

Second, a public offering would provide a genuine guarantee of service for critical systems. Certain workloads (public registries, healthcare platforms, emergency services, scientific archives, and strategic industries) should not be subject to abrupt commercial pressures, geopolitical risk, or shareholder-driven priorities. By enabling these systems to be hosted on publicly owned infrastructure, states can ensure long-term continuity, transparency, and sovereignty, while still benefiting from modern tooling and professional operations.

It is increasingly popular, particularly in open-source circles, to imagine a future in which self-hosting replaces large-scale cloud services. While admirable in spirit, this vision underestimates the economic reality of infrastructure. Self-hosting loses competitiveness precisely where reliability, redundancy, security, and energy efficiency matter most. These are domains where economies of scale are decisive. Expecting individuals, nonprofits, or small organizations to replicate them independently is neither realistic nor efficient. The economies of scale are just not on the side of this strategy.

A state-backed option represents a pragmatic middle ground. Like public transportation, water utilities, or postal services, it leverages collective funding through taxation to achieve scale that no individual contributor could reasonably attain. Crucially, this does not preclude private innovation or competition. Instead, it ensures that essential services remain accessible, affordable, and more resilient.

Part of the resistance to this idea stems from the persistent mystification of data centers and web services. There is a widespread belief that only “Big Tech” can operate them competently. In reality, the technical knowledge required has never been more accessible. Decades of best practices, open standards, and free documentation are available to anyone willing to apply them. What Big Tech primarily offers is not secret knowledge, but capital concentration and scale (both of which governments already possess). I believe this is an important notion we need to spread more diligently. Without a doubt, new agencies created for these purposes will make mistakes, but they will be necessary learning steps towards the provision of an essential service.

At the European level, the opportunity is especially clear. Twenty-seven economies, aligned by regulatory frameworks and shared interests, could establish interoperable, publicly owned infrastructure following common standards. Such an initiative would reduce dependency on American providers, strengthen digital sovereignty, and dramatically improve access to high-quality networking and computing services for SMEs, startups, and public institutions.

However, such an effort would need to begin at the national level to prove its viability. Pilot projects, limited-scope public clouds, and targeted use cases would allow governments to validate the model before broader adoption. But the potential upside (economic resilience, strategic autonomy, fairer competition, long-term cost control) is substantial.

In short, treating data centers as public infrastructure is neither radical nor unprecedented. It is a rational response to their growing centrality in modern life. The question is no longer whether states can do this, but whether they can afford not to.

[–] theBronzeShoe@feddit.org 2 points 2 months ago

A key issue is that the talent pool itself isn’t meaningfully better. Across every echelon of Big Tech, you’ll find plenty of people who couldn’t care less about the societal consequences of their work. They see themselves as neutral scientists and conveniently ignore the fact that they don’t work in academic labs. They work for multibillion-dollar corporations. These companies will push any breakthrough to market for competitive advantage, without a second thought for its broader social impact. Not to mention to questionable clients.

Ultimately, this situation isn’t driven by a lack of technical brilliance, but by the absence of strong American regulation and a failure to meaningfully rein in these companies. Quite frankly most of them should be broken up. That regulatory vacuum is what puts the rest of the world at risk.

 

Americans seem determined to bring our old ways back 🤔

 

I am incredible concerned about the topic, like many of you. But I also can't help but feel we are missing key arguments beyond "individual rights" which are under attack in many fronts by conservative and right wings groups which have taken over a lot of the discourse in general media. That is why I believe we must bring to light another perspective they cannot ignore, which is also easy to explain to the public. The point I want to touch, which others have done occasionally (but not frequently enough for the general public), is that Chat Control is a national security nightmare. We need to start shifting public discourse to highlight this fact.

Encryption is one of the most powerful defensive tools we have, because any deliberate weakness, any backdoor, can never be reserved solely for “the good guys.” Once a system is built to decrypt private communications, it becomes vulnerable not just to governments but to criminals, hostile actors, and data breaches, and even to misuse by private companies that gain access to sensitive information. In a world where leaked or stolen data can be weaponized to pressure, silence, or blackmail people who have committed no crime, strong end-to-end encryption is not a luxury but a fundamental safeguard for personal safety, freedom of expression, and democratic resilience.

No one is perfect, and that simple truth is exactly what makes large troves of personal data so dangerous in the wrong hands. Everyone has vulnerabilities, mistakes, insecurities, private struggles, or simply aspects of life they would rather keep to themselves. The more data that exists, the easier it is for someone to map those weak spots. With enough insight into a person’s habits, fears, or relationships, almost anyone can be pressured or coerced into actions they would never otherwise consider. This is why mass access to decrypted personal information is not just a theoretical risk; it’s an open invitation for manipulation that threatens the autonomy and integrity of ordinary people.

When entire populations become more vulnerable to coercion because their private lives can be mined for leverage, the threat extends far beyond individual harm, it becomes a national-security liability. A society in which citizens can be more easily blackmailed is a society in which adversaries find it far simpler to recruit insiders, extract sensitive information, or pressure people into acting against their own country’s interests. Strong encryption, by protecting citizens from becoming easy targets, reinforces national resilience: it ensures that loyalty cannot be subverted through exploitation of personal data and that the security of a nation does not hinge on the weakest, most exposed individual.

TLDR:

Strong encryption is essential because any intentional weakness, any backdoor, can never be reserved for “the good guys,” and once private data is exposed through breaches, misuse, or systemic access, it becomes a powerful tool for coercion. No one is perfect. Everyone has vulnerabilities or private struggles that, when revealed, can be exploited to pressure or silence them, even if they’ve committed no crime. At scale, this isn’t just a personal-privacy issue but a national-security risk: a population made easier to blackmail is a population more susceptible to infiltration, manipulation, and recruitment by hostile actors. Protecting encryption protects individuals, and the country, from these cascading threats.

Encryption is far more impactful than decryption!