theneverfox

This isn't a hysteria, it's a meme... But why?

This isn't the only horse related meme either, I've seen shit like people using feed bags and suddenly betting on old horse races

It's like the zombie/vampire economic thing... But I have no idea what horses mean

It was always for farmers... Capitalism is really bad at sustaining farm output

There's one saving grace... The sheer fucking incompetence

How long do you think this will remain stable? We're in a free fall by every metric. The dollar is down, the stocks are down (except for the ai bubble... That's going to be a big pop), the housing market is crashing, insurance is falling apart, federal workers are getting mass fired by email, job numbers are shrinking...

How long until something important breaks? If we're lucky, we can keep the shutdown going long enough for ICE to drain whatever funds they can misappropriate and see what happens to brown shirts when they aren't getting paid

Bad shit is going to happen. China is going to get Taiwan, hopefully after chip factories are set up elsewhere. The people in Gaza are fucked. Immigrants and minorities are getting terrorized. Ukraine can go either way, Russia is in a bad way and Ukraine is feeling war fatigue.

The Internet is dying, cyber attacks are ramping up, deep fakes are getting very good, palantir is setting up surveillance everywhere, AI is going to do some future crime bullshit

But despite all that, life will go on.

Maybe the military steps in to force elections - at least they so far refuse to even menace the people, if they decide they have to act to save the Constitution as per their oaths nothing could stop them

Trump is actively dying, and Vance doesn't have the juice to keep everyone in line - there will be a power struggle

Trump's end goal is to live out his remaining days in an imaginary kingdom where his legacy will live on forever.

Vance's goal is to go on never ending extravagant vacations

Peter Tiel thinks if society collapses billionaires will be able to step in and make technocratic kingdoms... But again, the military has plans to feed the entire country for extended periods and restore order in every imaginable collapse scenario

This just is not a stable state of affairs, it has to end, but no one is properly preparing for what comes next.

Maybe the country is fucked, but what about your state? Your city? Maybe things only get better locally for a while, and the federal government becomes less relevant

Maybe the military does step in but decides they don't want to organize new elections...a military junta isn't ideal, but it would be more restrained and orderly than this

Maybe lots of people die from starvation and sickness and those that survive have to rebuild

As for how to keep going? I look for the cracks. Watch Trump's speeches - he probably just had another stroke, and he's noticably more incoherent than even this summer. The leaks never stop. They're rehiring a lot of cut workers. Abrego Garcia is still in the country. Candidates like Mumdani are coming out of the woodwork. Learn about economic indicators and watch them plummet. Learn about what happens historically in similar situations.

It'll be painfully slow, but eventually we'll hit rock bottom. And then we can build something new

I've seen no less than 3 people drink it on stream... Why is this a thing now?

Isn't that like his entire arc? He slowly realizes his leash is only as strong as he believes it to be

Because that's not how any of this works.

For one, modern warfare is always asymmetrical. There's no fair fights - the weapons are too strong. There's no way to do this without turning it into a sport, at which point why make it lethal? Either way, the loser could decide to go back to violence

For two, this isn't a war, this is denying aid to starving people, then shooting at the bread lines for reasons such as... Showing up too early

For three, Hamas are hardliners. They want all of Israel, which is obviously impossible. So their method is to make Israel martyr the civilians in the hopes the rest of the world will attack Israel

For three part 2, Israel is propping up Hamas because they're hardliners. When Hamas gets to open to a real piece deal, Israel assassinates the moderate (and often the negotiator)

And beyond all of that... This is violence. This is what happens when you flip the table. We could settle conflict with Yu-Gi-Oh games, but only so long as everyone abides the results.

We have rules of warfare... But even those are broken all the time. In fact, if everyone followed the rules, both sides would only be allowed to hit military targets. Hamas wouldn't be able to hide among civilians, so they'd just occasionally attack Israeli troops before running off to a deep hole somewhere. Israel would only be able to attack that hole, so they'd probably occasionally find one and cut the numbers

So don't ask why the combatants don't duke it out... Ask why the rules aren't working

45 seconds maybe? Depends on what it is

I like my videos to be at least 20 minutes long and in the background

Only if you're incredibly insecure about yourself.

Bullshit. This is hardwired into our brains. False accusations hurt, but only when you can't imagine yourself doing what you're accused of.

If someone doesn't bristle at being treated like a wild animal, that's a huge red flag. They're not confident, either they're manipulative or they could see themselves warranting the protection. They're probably not an immediate threat, but that is what a future abuser looks like

And what good is having a friend next to you as opposed to nearby? That's not safer... What, do you think they're going to grab someone out of the coffee shop and run?

There's lots of normal reasons to have someone you know nearby. You can get dropped off and picked up, have a friend in the area doing things. If you have bad vibes, stay in the damn coffee shop and have your friend come in and get a drink.

You can go somewhere you know a worker. You can get to know a place and spend time with the staff so you have a safe ground.

I've had someone introduce me to their co-workers before walking to a cafe a few doors down, that was a positive experience, because it was very friendly and I could feel I just passed a bunch of vibe checks... I didn't even consider that there was a handful of people who saw my face and had eyes on the car I drove up in nearby until much later

That's about as safe as you could ever be, and it wasn't offensive at all, because it was natural and affirmative. It feels good when people notice I'm a good person, and I think having a community is cool.

At the end of the day, no one is ever truly safe, but having community around is how you make yourself safer.

And I really do mean the manipulator thing, if someone doesn't react at all to an implication like that, that's a red flag... Honest people get angry at accusations, guilty ones get calm, manipulators use that information

Both. He wants violence on others, but wants you to be part of the in group doing it

It's an act of love and hatred. I don't respect it, because I know the hatred will be turned on me soon enough, but you do have to try to understand it

Because it's the only growth area. Speculators need to speculate. There's money to be made on a bubble on the way up, and tons on the way down, as long as you time it right

Sure, the danger is real and that people need to protect themselves

It's also incredibly offensive to do it directly.

The polite thing to do is make being safe a matter of course. It's very normal to meet in public, it's normal to do checkup texts, it's fine to do a group activity if it's a group activity. We've spent decades normalizing subtle ways to do this

There's a degree of social hygiene necessary, or society falls apart.

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