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Overall, the BBC has confirmed the names of almost 160,000 people killed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine.

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The real death toll is believed to be much higher, and military experts we have consulted believe our analysis of cemeteries, war memorials and obituaries might represent 45-65% of the total.

That would put the number of Russian deaths at between 243,000 and 352,000.

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In October [2025], when a planned second Russia-US summit was eventually shelved, and then in November, when the US presented a 28-point peace proposal, an average of 322 obituaries were published per day - twice the average in 2024.

It is difficult to put increased Russian losses down to any one factor, but the Kremlin sees territorial gains as a way of influencing negotiations with the US in its favour: Putin aide Yuri Ushakov stressed recently that "recent successes" had had a positive impact.

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Russian authorities plan to include drone operation as part of the national GTO program—a Soviet-era system formally described as physical education and fitness training for children, standing for “Ready for Labor and Defense.”

Moscow is also strengthening state oversight of military-sports training for minors, effectively treating such activities as part of the formal educational system.

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On the regional level, the militarization of youth is becoming increasingly visible. Children are reportedly being allowed to ride on combat vehicles, handle firearms, and participate in holiday events featuring military equipment—such as New Year celebrations where traditional characters arrive on tanks.

Military symbols are increasingly becoming part of everyday childhood experiences.

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Gillian Tett wrote in the Financial Times (see below) an article on cognitive biases in the global threat landscape, referring to a manual by the Swiss Federal Intelligence Services on cognitive blind spots.

She links to the Situation Report of the Federal Intelligence Service “Switzerland's Security 2025” but not to the manual.

Does anyone in this community have a link to this document?

Why we should know what we don’t know

Cognitive blind spots are undermining our ability to see the world as it is, rather than as we would like it to be

Gillian Tett, Financial Times, 3 January 2026

A decade ago, the Swiss government made an optimistic decision: it dismantled the last of the cold war explosives it had previously installed in its roads, bridges and tunnels to deter an invasion.

The reason? At the start of the 21st century, western elites generally assumed that globalisation, democracy and the free market were self-evidently good, and would keep spreading, creating peace. It thus seemed pointless to plan for a putative invasion.

No longer. As 2026 dawns, “the security situation around Switzerland is deteriorating year by year [and] a global confrontation is emerging”, as a recent report from the Swiss Federal Intelligence Service points out. So, Swiss leaders — like other governments — are now scrambling to rebuild their defences, as they realise that they misread the future.

More striking still, the FIS has also published a manual about cognitive blind spots. “Many people have little to no knowledge of how human thinking works,” the handbook laments, urging the FIS staff to reflect on their mental biases to better understand both the present and future.

More specifically, the manual identifies 18 different cognitive biases that hamper our thinking, such as “group think” (adhering to the cosy assumptions of our tribe), “anchoring” (relying exclusively on whatever information we see first, say on social media), “confirmation bias” (only seeing data that reinforces pre-existing views), “mirror imaging” (assuming others think like us), the “absence of evidence” bias (failing to think about the data we lack) and “survivorship bias” (judging data only with success stories, not failures).

It is excellent advice — and not just for spooks. After all, 2025 was a jarring experience for anyone raised in the late 20th century western zeitgeist: globalisation was undermined by nationalism, free-market principles were corroded by government meddling; and democracy lost ground to oligarchs. The latter is the opposite of what had been expected, as Anne Applebaum notes in her book Autocracy, Inc.

So as 2026 gets under way, the question is how to make sense of these disorienting shocks? History offers one helpful frame. What is happening today echoes, in some ways, the zeitgeist of a century ago, when great powers vied for hegemonic control (ie dominance) between the world wars.

More specifically, what we are essentially witnessing today is a geoeconomic contest between the US, China and Russia, in which economic policy tools are being used for political ends.

America wields hegemonic power in this fight in finance, because it controls the world’s reserve currency. China has hegemonic power in manufacturing because it controls supply chain nodes. Tech hegemony is still contested.

And while each side wants to break the other’s hegemonic power, neither looks able to do so soon. So expect these battles to rumble on. Or for another perspective on events, look at what anthropologists refer to as “social silences”: our tendency to ignore parts of our world because of cultural frames. These are rife today.

One example is that we pay striking little attention to our dependence on vulnerable cyber infrastructure systems. Another is that western discourse pays scant attention to the fact that we live in a golden age of science (a pattern which reflects the largely non-scientific educational background of most western politicians and journalists.)

Anthropology can also shed light on US President Donald Trump’s White House. The current US government has shattered many modern western norms of rule-based, democratic systems, since it is shaped by the capricious whims of Trump, with officials wielding power depending on their proximity to the president, not an org chart.

Moreover Trump’s inner circle act as if their financial interests are with that of the state, with little shame — but an obsessive emphasis on “face” — or “honour.”

This shocks western liberals. But, as the anthropologist Matthew Engelke has noted, honour-based, kinship-focused political systems have been the rule — not exception — elsewhere in the world.

So one way to parse the White House is to treat it like a Tudor royal court — an insight that Swiss business leaders recently took to heart, when they visited Trump bearing symbolic tributes of Rolex watches and a gold bar.

However, the discipline that Swiss intelligence now prefers to stress is psychology. It can help us understand the behaviour of narcissistic rulers such as Trump. But arguably as important is what psychology tells us about our own mental blinkers — including the failure of so many western liberal elites to anticipate Trump’s rise.

Is there any solution to all these biases? The FIS offers some: “stress test your beliefs”; “think statistically”; “ask yourself what you know and what you don’t”; “show intellectual modesty”, deploy “creative thinking” and periodically “think the opposite” of your assumptions, to break out of our cosy intellectual echo chambers.

Call this, if you like, the fight against tunnel vision. It is painfully hard. But in 2026 we need it more than ever. Remember that when you next see a real Swiss tunnel.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44807878

War-driven boom fades

The year 2025 marked the end of Russia’s wartime growth spurt of 2023-24. After two years of expansion of more than 4%, GDP growth for 2025 is expected to slow to around 1% or lower, with the same headwinds likely to persist into 2026.

The economy has largely exhausted the temporary drivers that underpinned growth in 2023 and 2024. In 2023, rapid expansion reflected a rebound from the shock of 2022, when the economy was forced to rapidly reorient toward wartime production.

In 2024, growth rested on a different pillar: a sharp rise in state spending. Federal expenditures increased by roughly a quarter that year, rising to 40.2 trillion rubles ($502.5 billion) from 32.35 trillion rubles ($404.4 billion) in 2023, injecting demand into the economy.

Those drivers were largely absent in 2025, and there is no obvious catalyst to revive growth in 2026.

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Tax burden rises as revenues erode

For the first time since the pandemic, Russia collected less budget revenue in 2025 than originally planned. When the 2025 budget was approved, revenues were set at 40.3 trillion rubles ($503.8 billion). Updated forecasts suggest actual receipts will come in closer to 36.6 trillion rubles ($457.5 billion).

This marks a break from the previous three years, including 2022, when revenues consistently exceeded initial projections.

The shortfall partly reflects weaker tax intake amid slowing growth, as well as falling oil prices and Western sanctions that have widened the discount Russia must offer buyers for its crude.

Oil and gas revenues in 2025 are now projected at 8.7 trillion rubles ($108.8 billion), well below the originally planned 10.9 trillion rubles ($136.3 billion). With growth slowing and oil prices under pressure, 2026 is likely to bring another year of weak budget revenues.

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Despite the economic slowdown, Russian authorities have little room to cut military spending as the war in Ukraine drags on.

President Vladimir Putin has shown no sign of backing down from his maximalist demands, repeatedly saying Russia is prepared to fight until it secures control over the four Ukrainian regions it claims to have annexed.

Officially, spending on national defense is set at 13.5 trillion rubles ($168.8 billion) in 2025 and 12.93 trillion rubles ($161.6 billion) in 2026. But actual outlays, including classified spending, are likely to be higher.

Russia does not disclose full military expenditures in its federal budget, publishing only planned figures.

Officials occasionally provide partial disclosures. In December, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said defense spending amounted to 7.3% of GDP in 2025.

With GDP estimated at 217.3 trillion rubles ($2.72 trillion) in 2025, this implies total defense spending of around 15.86 trillion rubles ($198.3 billion), well above the figures published in the budget.

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Web archive link

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44806589

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The controversy began as soon as Beijing bought the site from real estate groups for £255 million (€292 million), after the then foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, approved the site's diplomatic use. Setting up an embassy at Royal Mint Court, the Conservative official wrote in a letter to his counterpart, Wang Yi, "will be bold expressions of the strength of UK-China bilateral relations," referring to the UK's parallel plan to renovate its embassy in Beijing.

"The Sunday Times revealed that Boris Johnson had entrusted Edward Lister, his right-hand man when he was mayor of London [2008-2016], with the task of negotiating the transfer on behalf of the Foreign Office, even though Mr. Lister had previously worked for the company chosen by Beijing to identify the embassy site," said Luke de Pulford, a human rights advocate, founder of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) and one of the main opponents of the mega-embassy.

As is standard procedure, Beijing submitted its development plans to the relevant local authority: the Tower Hamlets borough council. But in 2022 ... the council unanimously rejected the project, citing its impact on the residents of about one hundred homes adjacent to the Royal Mint. "The council was concerned about risks to their safety and the traffic congestion that could be caused by demonstrations in front of the embassy," explained Conservative councilor Peter Golds. "It was a humiliation for Beijing, as the mega-embassy had become a major issue in the bilateral relationship," said de Pulford.

The project appeared to be dead. All the more so as the so-called "Golden Era" between the UK and China has come to an end. The Golden Era was launched by then Conservative prime minister David Cameron in the early 2010s, when the UK prioritized boosting trade with the world's second-largest economy. Now, repression is rampant in Hong Kong, with China reneging on its 1997 promise to preserve the rule of law on the archipelago when London handed over this former British territory.

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Starting in 2021, the UK offered visas to tens of thousands of Hong Kong residents fleeing repression, while successive Conservative prime ministers Liz Truss (2022) and Rishi Sunak (2022-2024) took a harder line against Beijing. Key figures in the Conservative Party (Tom Tugendhat, Iain Duncan Smith, Nusrat Ghani) were banned from entering China due to their criticism of the treatment of Uyghurs.

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Opponents have raised the alarm. In addition to the objections of Royal Mint residents, they put forward geopolitical arguments: "We could never imagine during the height of the Cold War that Margaret Thatcher would have allowed the Soviet Union to build the biggest embassy in Europe in London. It's a completely mad idea. My argument would be that China poses a much more acute threat than the Soviet Union ever did," said de Pulford.

Another issue is the size. "The bigger the building, the greater the risks of interference and influence operations," noted the activist, who pointed out the proximity of Royal Mint Court to the telecommunications cables connecting the City to Canary Wharf, the other major financial center in London.

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Hong Kong dissidents who have taken refuge in the UK also fear increased extraterritorial repression. "There have been a lot of examples before, where China used diplomatic premises to harass citizens or force people to travel back to China to face trials," said Lau. The young woman from Hong Kong is being hunted by authorities on the peninsula, who offered one million Hong Kong dollars (€109,088) to anyone who helped facilitate her arrest. "When I first arrived here, I felt safe. Not anymore: My neighbors received anonymous letters offering them money in exchange for information about me. When I go out, I am constantly looking over my shoulder," she said.

Hong Kong dissidents who sought refuge in the UK still remember the incident in Manchester in October 2022, when, during a peaceful protest outside the Chinese consulate, members of the consulate dragged a demonstrator into the compound and beat him. The crowd managed to rescue the young Hongkonger. The Manchester consul general and five diplomats were recalled by Beijing a few weeks later, before British police had the opportunity to question them. Lau also expressed concern about the many rooms planned for the basement of the mega-embassy. "We have proof that these rooms exist. Beijing refused to specify what they are for," said Golds.

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Announcing a green light [for China's 'mega'-embassy] could in any case trigger unrest even within the ranks of the Labour Party, following a series of warnings about the UK's vulnerability to Chinese espionage. In November, the domestic intelligence service (MI5) warned about recruiters attempting, via LinkedIn, to contact lawmakers at Westminster on behalf of the Chinese Ministry of State Security.

Downing Street has still not provided a clear explanation for why the espionage trial of former parliamentary aide Christopher Cash and academic Christopher Berry was canceled in September. At the time, the director of public prosecutions said that he had not received sufficient assurances from the government that China constituted a "threat to the national security of the UK" to be able to proceed with prosecuting the two men.

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The decision regarding the embassy "has become a flashpoint for the wider debate over how the UK should approach potential national security risks from China," noted the Chatham House think tank in a report dated December 3. However, British authorities' responses to Chinese espionage "appear to be largely reactive, driven by scandal and media scrutiny rather than sustained strategic planning," the authors of the report warned.

Archive link

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In December, the governing parties sought to fast-track amendments to the law governing LRT, including changes to the procedure for appointing and dismissing the broadcaster’s director general.

The proposed changes include introducing a secret ballot for appointing and dismissing the head of LRT, and allowing dismissal following a vote of no confidence over improperly performed duties or if the council fails to approve the annual activity report.

The proposals have drawn strong criticism from journalists’ organisations and international bodies, who warn they could weaken LRT and open the door to political interference.

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Almost all new cars sold in Norway last year were fully electric, according to official registration data published Friday. It puts the Nordic country within touching distance of effectively erasing gasoline and diesel cars from its new car market. “2025 has been a very special car year,” Geir Inge Stokke, director of the Norwegian Road Traffic Information Council, said in a statement.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44762814

Plans are under way to drop dozens of devices from military aircraft into the waters off the coast of Ireland to help detect Russian submarines. The project forms part of Government efforts in increase the State’s “maritime domain awareness” in response to increasing concerns about the vulnerability of subsea infrastructure, such as communications cables and energy connectors, to attack or sabotage.

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The technology is viewed as vital due to the increased presence of Russian military ships in the Irish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

This includes Russian intelligence-gathering surface vessels such as the Yantar, which has entered the Irish EEZ on several occasions in recent years. Security officials believe it is usually accompanied by a Russian submarine. It is also capable of deploying its own on-board submersible.

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Archive link

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Germany, the bloc's largest economy, recorded the weakest performance among the eight nations monitored with the PMI reading hitting a 10-month low. Italy and Spain also slipped back into contraction territory.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44744329

Here is an Invidious link for the YT video (18 min) that is embedded in the article.

As Russia enters 2026, many Russian opposition figures, especially those living in exile, have suggested that Putin is leading their country to disaster; even though, to this day, most Russians instinctively dismiss those who advance such views as renegades or even traitors. A new commentary, however, more sweeping and damning than theirs was offered last week by retired Russian Colonel General Leonid Ivashov in response to Putin’s direct line television program held on December 19.

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Ivashov points out that while Putin was beaming to his audience and telling everyone how well the Russian economy was doing, even Moscow television showed scenes of people in Russia’s federal subjects begging for water, road repair, and money for medicines ... "I watched [Putin’s] whole 4-hour show, and I didn’t see a leader, a commander, or a protector of the people. I just saw a guy living in a fairy tale while the rest of the country is struggling to survive on 16,000 rubles [$130] a month.”

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Ivashov is someone whom all Russians recall as the hero of Pristina. In 1999, General Leonid Ivashov, as a senior Russian military official, led a rapid deployment of Russian forces into Pristina ahead of NATO troops blocking their advance in an effort to assert Russian influence during the Kosovo conflict. His act heightened tensions with NATO, signaling Moscow’s willingness to challenge Western operations and complicating alliance coordination in the region.

Ivashov is now appearing once again in a different form, this time emerging once again to challenge Russian President Putin, predicting Russian defeat in its war with Ukraine. While the aging Ivashov – now 82 – has previously criticized Putin and his policies, most notably in 2022 when he denounced the war in Ukraine and even called on Putin to resign, his remarks this past week came immediately after Putin’s live call-in address.

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About Putin’s war in Ukraine that the retired general is the most critical. In a direct jab at the Russian Chief of the General Staff Valerii Gerasimov, and the way he has conducted the war, Ivashov says, the Russian High Command is not impressing anyone, and Putin remains stuck at “the tactical level,” talking about taking this or that tiny village or even a single house, noting that Ukraine, backed by NATO tech and satellite intel, is hitting Russia where it hurts (oil refineries and airfields), while Russia is just firing off its weapons at easy targets like apartment blocks and schools rather than militarily significant ones.

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During his online statement Ivashov offered a long laundry list of things that, in his opinion, were failing inside Russia:

  • Planes: “We can’t build our own passenger jets. We’re basically cannibalizing old Boeing’s for spare parts.”

  • Space: Ivashov describes how the last working manned launchpad at Baikonur was accidentally destroyed due to poor maintenance. Russia in effect can no longer deploy men into space.

  • Food: Ivashov warns that the food available in Russians stores is becoming extremely harmful because it is filled with palm oil because the economy is so constrained.

  • Corruption: He mentions that 11 trillion rubles ($1.2 trillion) were allegedly stolen by the Russian Ministry of Defense. He points out that almost every major corrupt official is a member of the ruling party.

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Web archive link

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Finnish police have formally arrested two crew members of the Fitburg, a cargo ship suspected of breaking a data cable between Finland and Estonia on New Year’s Eve. Two other crew members have been placed under travel bans.

Police declined to comment on the nationalities of the individuals.

Authorities began interrogations of crew members on Thursday. They have also launched an underwater investigation of the site around the broken cable.

"Investigative measures have been carried out on the ship and the crew has been interviewed. We are now assessing the situation and the role of the crew," said Detective Superintendent Risto Lohi of the National Bureau of Investigation.

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Damage to an Elisa telecommunications cable was discovered early on Wednesday morning. Finnish authorities seized the Fitburg, which is suspected of damaging the cable, later that same day. The vessel is now at Kantvik port in Kirkkonummi.

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Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen (NCP) confirmed in an interview with Iltalehti on Thursday evening that Russia has offered assistance to the ship’s crew.

According to Häkkänen, Russia has always offered some kind of assistance in cases of hybrid influencing.

"In this case, I will not take a position on what is actually behind it. It should be approached normally and calmly," Häkkänen told IL.

The cargo ship was en route from St Petersburg to Haifa, Israel, carrying a cargo of steel.

According to Häkkänen, it is natural for Moscow to make such offers of assistance.

"But we operate according to our own procedures," he added.

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Financial Times, 2 January 2026

Europe is so far behind the US in digital infrastructure it has “lost the internet”, a top European cyber enforcer has warned.

Miguel De Bruycker, director of the Centre for Cybersecurity Belgium (CCB), told the Financial Times that it was “currently impossible” to store data fully in Europe because US companies dominate digital infrastructure.

“We’ve lost the whole cloud. We have lost the internet, let’s be honest,” De Bruycker said. “If I want my information 100 per cent in the EU . . . keep on dreaming,” he added. “You’re setting an objective that is not realistic.”

The Belgian official warned that Europe’s cyber defences depended on the co-operation of private companies, most of which are American. “In cyber space, everything is commercial. Everything is privately owned,” he said.

This dependence was not an “enormous security problem” for the EU, said De Bruycker, who has led the CCB since it was founded a decade ago. But Europe was missing out on crucial new technologies, which are being spearheaded in the US and elsewhere, he said. These include cloud computing and artificial intelligence — both vital for defending European countries against cyber attacks.

Europe needed to build its own capabilities to strengthen innovation and security, said De Bruycker, adding that legislation such as the EU’s AI Act, which regulates the development of the fast-developing technology, was “blocking” innovation.

He suggested that EU governments should support private initiatives to build scale in areas such as cloud computing or digital identification technologies.

It could be similar to when European countries jointly set up the planemaker Airbus, he said: “Everybody was supporting the Airbus initiatives decades ago. We need the same initiative on [an] EU level in the cyber domain.”

Companies such as OVHcloud in France and Germany’s Schwarz Digital already provide crucial digital infrastructure, according to IT experts.

EU countries have been fretting about their dependency on US tech companies such as Amazon, with calls growing to increase Europe’s “technological sovereignty”.

De Bruycker said those discussions were often “religious” and lacked focus, however. “I think on an EU level we should clearly identify what sovereignty means to us in the digital domain,” he said. “Instead of putting that focus on how can we stop the US ‘hyperscalers’, maybe we put our energy in . . . building up something by ourselves.”

Belgium, as a host of the EU institutions and Nato, has been in the crosshairs of increased hybrid attacks allegedly staged by Russia, with increased cyber assaults and drone incursions into its airspace since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Last year Belgium suffered five waves of DDoS attacks lasting days, in which compromised devices overwhelm websites of businesses and government agencies to temporarily take them down. De Bruycker said the attacks typically targeted up to 20 different organisations per day, with “Russian hacktivists” generally behind them.

Although it was unclear whether the Kremlin was directly sponsoring them, the attacks generally followed as a response to anti-Russian statements by politicians.

“Sometimes . . . it’s not even a Belgian official, it’s an EU official who has said something in Brussels, and they start to attack,” he said.

Although such attacks have increased, De Bruycker does not see them as particularly harmful and says they are mostly aimed at disruption. “It’s temporary, it’s not stealing any information. It’s really disturbing the normal functioning of the website or the portal.”

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the US hyperscalers were crucial in helping salvage data from Russian attacks, he said.

He also expressed confidence in continued co-operation with American companies to crack down on bad actors, despite US tech companies having aligned themselves closely with the Trump administration, which has repeatedly signalled it would step away from supporting Europe’s security.

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Archived version

A politician in the Russian Volga region city of Samara has been charged with “abusing press freedom” for a speech he gave in the regional assembly condemning Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine, independent news channel 7x7 Horizontal Russia reported on Thursday.

Grigory Yeremeyev, 69, a member of the Democratic Party of Russia, a party founded in the 1990s that is currently unrepresented at any level of government in the country, faces a fine of up to 100,000 rubles (€1,080) over a speech he gave in late December when he was the only politician to accept the annual invitation to parties not represented in the Samara Regional Duma to address the assembly.

Yeremeyev also posted a transcript of his speech online, in which he said that Vladimir Putin had “long since understood the error” of invading Ukraine, but was now unable to withdraw his troops without going down in history as having lost the war.

Yeremeyev suggested that the Samara deputies should apologise to their constituents, “share responsibility for the failure with Putin” and advise him to stop the invasion, and urged the body to encourage other regional parliaments to vote for a similar initiative.

Continuing the war would lead to the “moral degradation of both parties to the conflict” as propaganda and the daily murder of hundreds of citizens “become commonplace”, Yeremeyev warned. He said that if NATO could not defeat Russia, and vice versa, “the special military operation would crush human lives and destinies” and was “an irrational waste of financial resources”.

...

The Duma also passed a resolution calling for Yeremeyev to be assessed as a “foreign agent”, and describing his speech as “a deliberate attempt to discredit” the assembly.

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Deepl translation of this Dutch article by Marloes de Koning in NRC Handelsblad (30 Dec. 2025)

Cristina Caffarra is wearing a dark red evening gown. Her hair is styled in a sleek wave, Beatrix-style. With a smile, she walks around the tables and introduces people to each other during the speakers' dinner prior to the annual conference she organises in Brussels. This time, her theme is digital sovereignty.

It is 29 January, just over a week after Donald Trump began his second term as president. The bosses of American tech companies sat in the front row at his inauguration. The Trump administration, together with the leaders of the tech companies, forms a front against European tech regulation. According to the new American president, enforcing those laws is tantamount to unfairly taxing American companies. And that makes him angry.

Governments, companies and citizens in Europe are vulnerable. Over the past decades, they have become almost completely dependent on American tech companies. This realisation is causing growing unease in the European capital. The motley crew gathering for drinks and dinner in Brussels on 29 January believes it is high time for action. They believe that European governments should do some of their procurement in Europe, rather than spending all their software and data storage budgets in America.

Italian economist and competition expert Cristina Caffarra is one of the driving forces behind this group. She uses the hashtag “EuroStack” in her efforts to spur European governments into action. Entrepreneurs, academics, tech lawyers and politicians from different countries usually communicate online and via Signal. The chic dinner at the Bellevue Museum in Brussels is an opportunity to get to know each other better. Hostess Caffarra has earned well from jobs for large American tech companies such as Apple and Amazon and the European Commission (in lawsuits against Google) and can now afford to do what she enjoys and considers important. She is good at networking and giving pep talks. And she does not mince her words, clearly preferring doers from the business world to politicians and think tankers.

We need to get cracking now, Caffarra kicks off as she says a few words during the starter. The next day, she repeats this from a high stool on stage, wearing another red dress that stands out among the suits. ‘In previous years, we were optimistic. Looking back, you could say that Europe was sleepwalking. (...) Now, the prevailing feeling is that we are under serious threat in Europe.’

Caffarra has seen from the inside how the power of the big American tech companies has grown. European companies were taken over and could not compete with the Americans. Talented Europeans emigrated. Entrepreneurs in need of capital moved to the US. And the EU rapidly turned into what Caffarra calls a ‘digital colony of America.’ It frustrates her, and she wants this development to stop. But how do you get entrepreneurs, politicians and regulators in 27 member states to take action?

Launching a movement

Together with another passionate Italian economist, Francesca Bria, and the boss of messaging service Signal, Meredith Wittaker, Caffarra is organising a meeting in the European Parliament in September 2024 entitled “Toward European Digital Independence”. The subtitle is “Building the EuroStack”. A long list of speakers explains to politicians what it will take to make European alternatives to the overwhelming American tech offering succeed.

In hindsight, the meeting marks the launch of a movement. The speakers and some of the attendees found common ground on the theme of digital sovereignty. They started a Signal group and met online a few times. The term “EuroStack” rolls off the tongue nicely and helps to clarify that digital infrastructure consists of layers. A “stack” that starts with the (submarine) cables and ends with the software. Only by cultivating serious European players in all areas, from cables and data centres to chips and clouds, can you achieve a degree of independence. According to Caffarra and his colleagues, this can be achieved through demand. From autumn 2024 onwards, they attach the hashtag “EuroStack” to all kinds of communications.

At the dinner prior to Caffarra's conference, they are physically together again for the first time. Trump's re-election has significantly fuelled the sense of urgency. Among those present are many tech entrepreneurs, but also regulators, bankers, consultants, politicians and journalists. The atmosphere is informal and cheerful. A German MEP from the Greens and a French specialist in tech regulation are engaged in lively conversation at one of the round tables.

The Frenchman is delighted. The Brussels lobby group for major American tech companies, the Chamber of Progress, has calculated what it would cost the EU to replace the services of current American tech companies in Europe with its own products. The result: at least 25 times the The calculation was leaked to the media outlet Politico, which published it that morning. When he heard about it, he high-fived his EuroStack allies, he says. In his view, this is recognition that EuroStack is gaining traction. ‘Otherwise, they would just ignore us.’

In the article, Chamber of Progress uses the term ‘digital curtain.’ The suggestion is that Europeans are putting themselves behind a digital curtain when they try to cobble together all the technology themselves – a reference to life behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War.

The EuroStack people are not advocating a total disconnection from the US. Their message is: governments, stimulate demand for alternatives to the services of large American companies such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon. Make a percentage – for example, 20 or 30 per cent – of government spending European. This will stimulate demand and encourage European companies to develop those products and services. In this way, European companies can flourish alongside the American giants. And freedom of choice will be created. Nevertheless, with their digital curtain warning, they are cleverly touching on a sensitive issue. Because EuroStack sounds attractive, but it is a hashtag behind which lies a question mark. How do you free Europe from the American digital stranglehold? And how do you sell something that does not yet exist?

Fragmented industry

Frank Karlitschek feels a sense of responsibility; he wants to help build the European “tech stack”. With his company NextCloud, the German software developer and entrepreneur offers office software similar to Microsoft, but with two major differences: it is European and open source. Two hundred people work there, mostly from Stuttgart and Berlin.

Karlitschek works closely with Caffarra. In addition to being an entrepreneur, he is also an activist for privacy and open internet standards, ensuring that software remains accessible and affordable. He is someone who feels at home behind his computer but is less comfortable at networking events than Caffarra. This is evident in the many photos taken after meetings with politicians, in which they appear together throughout the year. Caffarra always poses professionally, with a big smile, while Karlitschek looks a little uncomfortable.

Interest in NextCloud's products and the idea of a “EuroStack” is growing exponentially as Trump and his vice-president JD Vance seek confrontation with the EU. During a speech at the annual security conference in Munich, Vance says, among other things, that Europe is undermining itself from within. Democracy in the EU is no longer functioning, he says, partly due to European regulations for the digital world – which in practice mainly affect large American social media companies such as Meta and X.

Caffarra is inundated with calls, she says in mid-February on the phone from her car. ‘I'm on Zoom eight hours a day. It's like during the coronavirus pandemic.’ She notices that the message is getting through in France and Sweden. The position of Europe's industrial powerhouse Germany, which is on the eve of an election, is still a question mark. Caffarra wants European industry to speak out in favour of European procurement and is discussing this with her contacts in the business community. In mid-March, this results in a joint letter from European CEOs to the President of the European Commission and the European Commissioner for Digital Affairs. ‘You cannot regulate yourself out of a position of lagging behind,’ it says, among other things. The long list of names below it illustrates above all how unknown most European tech companies are. There are also bigger players among them, such as the CEO of Airbus.

Karlitschek is extremely busy. Everyone wants information about his “European alternative”. But NextCloud is not a European Microsoft. It only offers office software for things like video calling, collaborating on documents and what resembles Excel services. But it has no cloud and does not make the specialist software for businesses that “hyperscalers” such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google do offer.

What makes these companies so attractive to their customers is that a whole world lies behind a single point of contact. Anyone in Europe who wants to buy something similar has to do business with all kinds of small and medium-sized companies. And take into account the possibility that these technical “solutions” (ICT jargon) may not quite fit together.

If the European tech industry wants to have any chance of flourishing in the shadow of the American giants, companies will have to ensure that their products are interchangeable and can be used in conjunction with each other, Karlitschek explained in a video call in early March. ‘I strongly believe that we need to work together,’ he said. He sounded somewhat subdued and busy. ‘It has to work, for the future of Europe. But I'm not sure if we as Europe can deliver that.’

And so the NextCloud CEO is trying to get the fragmented European ICT industry moving. On 4 March, Karlitschek will fly to Milan for a EuroStack meeting with mainly European entrepreneurs. The aim is to take steps towards a joint European ICT offering. They agree on a first step towards a joint European standard for clouds.

Politics gets the message

In the Netherlands, ICT expert Bert Hubert has been passionately advocating the need for greater digital autonomy for years. The former entrepreneur and former intelligence service regulator gives lectures on the subject, writes blogs and LinkedIn posts, and collaborates with researchers. He has found little resonance. But after Trump's inauguration, his inbox has been overflowing with requests to speak, and journalists call him daily. He has been given a leading role in an item by Arjen Lubach on digital sovereignty and is occasionally recognised on the street and on the train.

Hubert is adept at using metaphors to make complex technology accessible to laypeople. To explain what dependence on an American hyperscaler entails, for example, he shows slides with pictures of coffee machines. We can all make coffee, but in recent years, IT administrators have switched en masse to Senseo, and now they can only buy those expensive coffee pods from that one brand. In the spring, Bert Hubert joins EuroStack. He quickly becomes part of the active core.

At first glance, the EuroStack movement appears to be successful. Under the leadership of Francesca Bria, the EuroStack recommendations are compiled into a voluminous report that is embraced by most political groups in the European Parliament in early June. And in April, thanks in part to German think tanks with good ties to the CDU, EuroStack is mentioned in the German Elon Musk inadvertently helps by interfering in the German elections via his platform X and supporting the radical right-wing AfD.

Politically, the message seems to have landed. Bert Hubert attends a series of meetings in Brussels, including an hour-long conversation with European Commissioner for Digitalisation Henna Virkkunen on a hot day in July. Afterwards, Caffarra is delighted and convinced that the message is getting through, as Virkkunen has repeatedly said that the European Commission is working on the tendering rules. Caffarra plays the schoolteacher for a moment when they are back outside. ‘Class, I am proud of you.’

Sovereignty washing

American companies are cleverly responding to the European desire for technological sovereignty by suddenly calling all kinds of products and services “sovereign”. Microsoft offers a sovereign cloud solution, as do Amazon and Google. The companies promise, for example, to use data centres in Europe. Or they add an extra – European – layer of management to their company.

Does this give Europeans the independence they desire? The ultimate owners remain American. Caffarra's group calls this “sovereignty washing”, analogous to “green washing”, the established term for companies that pretend to be sustainable.

American companies say exactly what their customers want to hear. Satisfied customers, with whom they have long-term relationships. The small European companies are the newcomers, who look and sound different. They are being cautiously sniffed out. European companies and governments are starting pilot projects, but are still hardly buying in any other way.

NextCloud organises presentations to dispel the unfamiliarity. Initially, the company had booked a small room for fifty people. More than three hundred turned up. On 5 June, it will also be packed when they organise a “summit” at the Mariott hotel in Munich with panels on sovereignty. Caffarra gets a laugh when she calls the idea that more European regulation can build a tech industry ‘a collective hallucination’.

The company is bending over backwards to make the threshold for users as low as possible. In their NextCloud Hub 10 update, they are adjusting the colour palette. Are users accustomed to a Word-style word processor being blue, Excel green and PowerPoint red after years of experience with Microsoft? Fine, then NextCloud will use similar colours.

However, government departments that are actually making the switch are still few and far between. Since March 2024, the government of the state of Schleswig-Holstein has been replacing Microsoft services with open-source alternatives for its 30,000 civil servants. An Austrian and a French ministry are following suit. The opposite is also happening. Parts of the government, such as the Dutch Tax and Customs Administration, are continuing the migration to Microsoft that was already underway. They do not see any European alternatives in the short term.

Politics and ICT procurement are two completely separate worlds, writes Bert Hubert on his blog. ‘Regardless of what parliaments and ministries say, the procurement department will continue to buy what it has always bought.’

Cristina Caffarra gives her pep talks almost daily. As the year progresses, she increasingly does so via video link, because travelling is no longer possible. In July, she launched her own podcast, Escape. She remains enthusiastic and outspoken on LinkedIn. However, her posts reveal growing frustration. ‘European elites are destroying Europe themselves,’ she writes, for example, when Europeans react with shock in early December to the American national security strategy, which is openly anti-EU. ‘They talk about their values and the wonderful European way of life, but they have no interest whatsoever in building their own digital infrastructure.’

During his presentations, Hubert is always asked the same question. What is the alternative to the American offering? What can we switch to? And at the end of 2025, he still has to give the same answer as a year earlier. Namely, that European companies need to get their act together.

He is disappointed with the attitude of European companies, especially cloud providers such as Hetzner, Leaseweb (Dutch), OVH and Ionos. ‘You would expect them to be at the forefront of the battle. But instead, they say, “It's not our fault that people don't buy our stuff”.’

The big boys

On 18 November, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz jointly take to the stage in a former gas factory near Berlin Airport. France and Germany – the driving force behind the EU – have organised a summit on European digital sovereignty. There are more than a thousand guests and ministers from 23 EU Member States.

The focus is on plans to make it easier to exclude non-European companies from tenders, for example with reference to national security. And on “innovate first, regulate later”. There are no anti-American statements. The ministers and state secretaries present, including those from the Netherlands, sign a declaration.

It explicitly refers to autonomy and freedom of choice, not sovereignty, because everyone knows that complete decoupling is an illusion and no one wants to unnecessarily antagonise the Trump administration. Frank Karlitschek of NextCloud is one of fifteen CEOs with a seat at the round table with Merz and Macron. That sounds more special than it is, he says two days later in a video call. They had fifteen minutes in total – “you were allowed to say something for two minutes” – and then a group photo.

The summit proves that the theme of digital sovereignty has reached the highest level of European politics. Nevertheless, Karlitschek has mixed feelings about it. ‘It's becoming very broad and going in all directions. I'm a little afraid that we're losing focus.’

The threatening language of Trump and the tech bosses has also led Europe to realise that it needs to become more militarily independent from the US. And that's where the money comes in. Within NATO, it has been agreed that European governments will significantly increase their defence spending. And that industry is not standing still.

Sitting at the same table with Karlitschek are representatives from, among others, the defence and electronics company Thales and the French fighter jet manufacturer Dassault. Defence is touching on digital independence. The themes overlap in areas such as cyber security. There is money to be distributed and therefore to be earned. With his open source background and as a privacy activist, Karlitschek does not immediately feel at home in the world of defence orders.

‘We punched above our weight’

Now that the message seems to have landed politically, it is time for EuroStack to move on to the next phase. ‘Until now, we were a loose collective. Me, a few CEOs, a LinkedIn channel. We punched above our weight,’ says Caffarra in a telephone interview at the end of October. In November, when the European summit takes place in Berlin, Caffarra and Karlitschek register EuroStack as a foundation in the German capital. Caffarra becomes chairman, Karlitschek one of the board members. Others include the CEO of Proton, the Swiss provider of secure email and cloud services, and a number of French and German tech entrepreneurs and investors.

The foundation should help with the transition from ‘talk to action,’ according to the statement. And that it is time to start ‘building’ the European offering. What this means in concrete terms is not immediately clear. It is certainly not an industry organisation, says Caffarra by telephone. There are already enough of those in Brussels. Caffarra hopes that EuroStack will primarily bring together supply and demand in Europe. But the foundation is not a consortium of EuroStack companies. It is not a quality mark. And it is certainly not a think tank, “they just talk endlessly”. She reacts as if stung by a wasp to the suggestion that the EuroStack foundation is somewhat like an NGO lobbying for something, namely European digital sovereignty. ‘Nobody pays me. I advocate for a cause I believe in. In my own time and with my own money. When people pay you, they think they can give you orders.’

She is negative about politics in Europe. ‘There is no leadership, no vision,’ she said in an interview with Bloomberg TV just before Christmas. ‘But the industry is on the move. I think we're going to see a lot of confidence in European tech.’

Initially, the EuroStack appeal was mainly ‘Buy European’ (aimed at governments), then ‘Sell European’ (aimed at companies), and now it's ‘Fund European’. Caffarra believes the latter will succeed. She mentions new European tech funds, including those from (American) Sequoia Capital and the Swiss-based investment fund Lakestar. And she hints on the phone at funds whose names she does not yet want to mention, including those from wealthy European families who would like to invest in European tech, but want to use EuroStack's advice in doing so. EuroStack has successfully helped put digital autonomy on the agenda, concludes ICT expert Bert Hubert. ‘It took an Italian power lady who has nothing to do with computers to get things moving.’ In his view, a movement like EuroStack cannot do more than that: the foundation does not produce technology itself, and you cannot stand on the sidelines indefinitely and shout that everyone should do things differently.

Hubert: ‘European industry is sidelined. But then they are also not interested in taking the lead in finding a solution.’ His conclusion: ‘EuroStack faces the impossible challenge of connecting customers who don't want to buy with suppliers who don't want to make. Strategically, that's a dead end.’

He decides to distance himself from it and leaves the EuroStack Signal groups with a farewell message.

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cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/6444245

Canada PM Mark Carney will be in France on Monday and Tuesday, where leaders of the bloc known as the Coalition of the Willing will gather to “accelerate efforts toward a negotiated peace for Ukraine, supported by strong security guarantees.”

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The group’s 35 member states, including Canada, have pledged their support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.

“Canada is working relentlessly with our allies to secure a just and lasting peace for Ukraine. We must deter and fortify – with robust security guarantees and by ensuring Ukraine can rebuild, recover, and create the foundations of true prosperity,” Carney said in a statement Friday.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44742454

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) faked the death of Denis Kapustin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), and claimed the bounty placed on his head by Russia's intelligence service, HUR chief Kyrylo Budanov revealed on Jan. 1.

"Welcome back to life," Budanov said on a Telegram video, while congratulating Kapustin and the intelligence team involved in the operation.

The announcement follows reports published on Dec. 27 stating that Kapustin, also known by his nom de guerre "White Rex," had been killed during a combat mission in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. In its Jan. 1 statement, HUR said those reports were part of a complex special operation that misled Russian intelligence services.

Russian intelligence services had ordered his assassination and allocated a bounty of $500,000 for the successful completion of the assassination.

"Our side also obtained the funds allocated by Russian intelligence services to carry out this crime," Budanov was told by the commander of the Timur special unit in the video.

"As of now, the RDK commander is on Ukrainian territory and is preparing to continue carrying out assigned tasks,."

...

Web archive link

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44761574

Ukrainians forced out of their homes by the Russian military now face the prospect of permanent loss of their property under a new Russian law. Signed by Vladimir Putin on December 15, 2025, Federal Law No. 518-FЗ authorizes Russian authorities in illegally annexed Ukrainian territories (the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) to seize, through 2030, any property deemed "ownerless."

To be legally recognized as the owner of real estate in an occupied territory, one must hold Russian citizenship and have re-registered property with the occupying authorities. For a Ukrainian, obtaining Russian citizenship takes about two years.

Seized properties become the possession of municipalities or regional governments and, according to the law, are to be redistributed to Russians who lost their homes "as a result of acts of aggression against the Russian Federation." The Russian legislature is thereby reversing the roles, depicting the plunderer as the victim.

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Law No. 518-F3 violates Article 46 of the international regulations concerning the laws and customs of war, annexed to the Fourth Hague Convention of 1907, which prohibits the appropriation of private property in occupied territories.

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In doing this, the Russian occupiers have formalized a practice observed since the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022: the plundering of property by local military or collaborationist authorities. Used in a chaotic and arbitrary manner, this practice primarily targeted the property of Ukrainians identified as hostile because they were politically or militarily engaged on the side of Kyiv.

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To speed up the expropriation process, Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic," called on residents as early as December 9, 2025 (the day the law was adopted by the Russian Parliament), to "report vacant homes to the authorities." The largest "redistribution" will take place in Mariupol, the biggest Ukrainian city captured by Russian forces since 2022.

This port on the Sea of Azov, formerly home to 400,000 people, endured three months of siege and Russian bombardment, resulting in around 50,000 deaths, according to Petro Andriushchenko, former adviser to the ex-mayor of Mariupol. He estimated that 75,000 apartments became uninhabitable, with half permanently destroyed (493 buildings). Occupying authorities have so far rebuilt 5,500 homes, but according to Andriushchenko, 22,000 Mariupol residents remain without housing.

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Andriushchenko sees the expropriation law as part of a quiet plan for ethnic cleansing. "Within five years, there will be no more Ukrainian residents in Mariupol and it is for this purpose that the Russians are redistributing the housing stock. This is an unprecedented seizure of property since the end of the World War II and Ukrainians have no recourse to seek compensation."

In a statement, the Ukrainian foreign ministry noted that "Russia aims to change the demographic composition of the occupied territories by replacing locals with Russian citizens," and "condemns [a law] designed to strip Ukrainian citizens en masse of [their] property. Russia has identified itself as a bandit state."

Law No. 518-FЗ is part of a long history of mass expropriations with an ethnic dimension. After the first annexation of Crimea in 1783, Empress Catherine II expelled the Tatars and the Nogai people, allocating their lands to settlers to Russify the peninsula. In the 1930s, Stalin caused a catastrophic famine (the Holodomor, which killed between three and four million people) and orchestrated the mass deportation of Ukrainian peasants from the Donbas to Siberia to repopulate the region with workers from across the Soviet Union. The list of tragedies is far from complete, and Moscow clearly wants to see it lengthen.

Archive link

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https://archive.is/2cUbQ

Telefonica approved a sweeping redundancy plan affecting 5,500 jobs

BT, another historic company, cut 5,000 jobs. The same was true for its German counterpart, Deutsche Telekom, which let go of 3,300 employees in the third quarter over the course of a year, as well as the Scandinavian operator TeliaSonera, which announced plans to cut up to 3,000 jobs in Sweden.

Nokia, which announced 14,000 job cuts over three years in October 2023, asked France in November to bear 427 layoffs and warned Germany it would close a site employing 700 people in Munich by 2030. Ericsson, its Swedish rival, also planned to reduce its headcount in France by 130.

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