He had huge red flags in terms of character, has been a compete bust and is making Jamarcus Russell’s deal look like a bargain.

Cleveland could have been a SB contender with a decent QB and instead they gave their fans this epic disaster.

If this isn’t the worst contract of all time, what signings are worse?

I don't know if you all have noticed, but this 2023 Giants team sucks. As an analyst, the eye test isn't enough for me. I need data, so I got it. And the data confirms that they suck...maybe even worse than the eye test. The Giants -14.8 point differential per game is second worst only to the 1-12-1 1966 Giants who had a per game point differential of -17.0. That 1966 team put up 41 points on offense against Washington in a game and still lost. They lost because they gave up 72.

Below you can see each year's point differential per game for the Giants with a few annotations. This image really puts into perspective just how bad 2023 has been so far.

https://preview.redd.it/kxth5tfwpp0c1.png?width=1708&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cfc9fd7d4b173c7a1fa9c0e4e46b5f064bbb59e

Some context for younger Reddit posters: Monday Night Football used to be *the* biggest game of the week from the 70s through 2005 when it was on ABC. When ABC Sports merged with ESPN and MNF was placed behind cable in 2006, Sunday Night Football (which had just been acquired by NBC) became the biggest primetime game of the week, especially with Al Michaels, John Madden, Dick Ebersol, and others switching sides. Additionally, the MNF package was removed from the Super Bowl rotation.

Now, is it just me, or does it feel like Monday Night Football is (slowly) overtaking SNF on NBC to become the premier primetime game once again? MNF seems to have regained its credibility by poaching Joe Buck and Troy Aikman from FOX. They've also set several personal records for ratings this season, including a record 22.6M viewers on opening night, in large part due to each game getting simulcasted on ABC (part of an agreement to bring Disney/ABC/ESPN back into the Super Bowl rotation). Most importantly, MNF has out-drawn SNF in ratings on several occasions this season, and I'd expect this week to be no different with the Super Bowl LVII rematch. Between the matchups not being as compelling and the gravitas of Al Michaels leaving the program (no disrespect to Mike Tirico, who is an outstanding announcer), it almost feels like SNF has taken a step back. Of course, they still hold an important advantage over MNF with their ability to flex games later in the season.

So, is this considered an unpopular opinion, or do others feel the same way?

It’s not gonna happen anytime soon but the league really should have all bye weeks within 4 weeks of each other. I feel like even from a TV watcher perspective. This is going to be way better(esp if you buy Sunday ticket)

I am absolutely loving not having any clue which team is actually the best team in the AFC North. Sucks when players are getting hurt, but the games have been entertaining.

1. Tom Brady 🐐
2. Mac Jones
3. Andrew Luck 4.Matt Ryan
4. Eli Manning
5. Drew Brees 7.RG3 8.Ben Roethlisberger
6. Joe Flacco
7. Johnny Manziel

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/calvin-ridley-promises-dominant-jaguars-debut-after-reinstatement-im-giving-jacksonville-1400-yards/

He currently sits at 471 yards through 9 games and is projected 900 total yards for the season. Not a good look from a guy who got suspended for betting on games to "betting on his daughter's name" on something that has virtually no shot of happening now.

I'll start with a couple:

Legedu Naanee

Gary Brackett

Henry Hynoski

I think Dak is a very good QB but I see a weird narrative about the Eagles-Cowboys game

Hurts had a higher passer rating than Dak did. Hurts had a 130 passer rating

Dak had more yards sure but the Eagles have given up 300+ yards to everyone. Sam Howell, Mac Jones and other guys have put up big numbers on the Eagles secondary

Hurts had a much tougher task than Dak did. The Cowboys had allowed the 4th fewest pass yards in the league at that point. The Eagles were 29th vs the pass.

You can't just say, Dak had more yards he played better

I was messing around with some adjusted passer ratings last week and a lot of the responses wanted Rushing contributions to be included. So I came up with a new method to do so, combining the adjusted Passer Rating (Passer Rating without Drops, Spikes, Throwaways) with Rushing production. That produced what I call QB CPR.

^(Full disclosure: I am a 49ers fan, but I did not do this to overhype Purdy. He was not atop this list a week ago (Cousins, Goff, & Stroud were 1, 2, & 3, respectively. Ignore my flair and you will still see differences like Goff, Wilson, and Mahomes vs their traditional rankings.))

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CPR

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing

GUIDE:

• CPR = Adjusted Passer Rating + Rushing Production
  • Adjusted Passer Rating = Passer Rating after eliminating Drops, Throwaways, & Spikes
  • Combined with Rushing Yds, TDs, & Fumbles Lost
• C-Yd = Combined Yards (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TD = Combined TDs (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TO = Combined Turnovers (Rushing + Passing)
• C-YPA = Combined Yards Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TD% = Combined TD% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TO% = Combined Turnover% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)

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CPR2

While doing all this I was looking for another metric to account for players that were doing the majority of the work. That is to say, not benefiting strictly of YAC. So I came up with another metric for this. CPR2 takes the original CPR metric and strips the YAC.

• As an example, it is much harder to earn a perfect rating this way.
  • Keenan Allen is 1/1 for a 49 yd TD. Under both standard and my CPR Rating that would be a 158.3 Rating. However, with CPR2 that becomes a 142.2 Rating. In this rating, perfect means perfect. K.Allen would have had to throw 1/1 for 49 Air Yards on a TD.

Here you will also see the biggest boosts from the high-volume rushers like Hurts and Lamar.

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing, further adjusted away from YAC

Guide:

• CPR2 = Takes CPR and adjusts it toward the % of a player's total yards are not from YAC.
  • This is designed to give a more accurate picture of what a QB is doing (as both a runner & passer) separate from the receiver.
• AYPC = Air Yards Per Completion
• YAC/Cmp = Yards After Catch, per Completion
• CRAY = % of Yards from Combined Rushing and Air Yards
• Adj OnTrg% = % of Passes on Target, per Adjusted Attempt (no drops, spikes, throwaways)

DVOA means efficiency per play and DYAR is total volume. So by football outsiders metrics, Stroud is the 2nd best performing qb this year on a play by play basis and the most valuable overall.

His DYAR is 1031. on pace for 1964 DYAR over this season.

His DVOA is 36.8%, meaning he is 36.8% above a league average QB.

To give context to how impressive this is, I will list a few QB seasons with similar metrics.

Aaron Rodgers in 2020 in his 48 TD 5 INT season had a 33.7% DVOA and 1649 DVOA. Granted this was a 16 game season.

Mahomes 50 TD season was 39.9% DVOA and 2031 DYAR.

So Stroud is playing at a similar level to 2 MVP, HOF QBs best seasons

If you are skeptical about these advanced metrics, Stroud also grades well in traditional ones.

He is 3rd in ANY/A (and the 2 ahead of him have much better offensive rosters), 6th in passer rating and 13th in pass success rate.

He should be in serious MVP consideration, especially with the defenses he has faced so far.

Link to new Football Outsiders

Image of DVOA stats

https://preview.redd.it/xdiejvgnbl0c1.png?width=2844&format=png&auto=webp&s=0636eadaace723780629e3d2c2f9140fa9872ca5

Before I debunk the common arguments used against Sam Howell, I want to remind everyone that this is his first year starting. Even thought he’s not technically a rookie QB, it’s fair to asses him as a rookie. Typically for rookie QBs the most important factor is improvement week by week. Sam has been consistently improving over the season, and recently playing like a veteran Qb.

Sam is Turnover Prone: It’s easy to look at the season stats and come to that conclusion. Most Sam Howell/commanders fans were cringing during the Bills game. Other than week 4 against the Bills where Sam had 4 interceptions, he has not thrown more than 1 interception in any other game. 40% of his interceptions on the season are from ONE stinker game, which also happened to be his 4th NFL start. Since then, his interception numbers have trended down. Only throwing 4 interceptions in the last 7 weeks. Meaning Sam had the same amount of interceptions in one game, than he had 7 weeks after that game. He’s also has thrown 1 more interception than Pat Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Yet, Interceptions are only brought up for Sam Howell.

Sam is Taking a lot of sacks: It is very true that Sam started the season as a sack machine. Some of the Sacks were on the O line, and a large percentage were on Sam. Like interceptions, his sack issue has trended down as he has gained more experience. Young QBs take a lot of sacks, which is true for future STAR qbs as well. Now, examining the last 3 weeks his sack rate has dropped to top #7 in the league. Sam is now getting the ball out quicker, and is more willing to throw to check downs. His sack issue is slowly being fixed as experience is gained by him and his 27th ranked offensive line.

He passes so much his stats are inflated: He does pass a lot. But, that doesn’t hurt an argument for him being a good QB. Other important passing metrics are high or trending in a good direction. Check this out:

• Cmp%: current rank: 15.
• he’s higher than CJ stroud, who the media praises, and is one behind Joe Burrow (14) and two behind Justin Herbert (13). Passer rating: rank 15.

Yet another Stat for him that would be higher if not for a few stinker games.

• higher than Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson.

Source for stats: https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/

Reminder: he’s in his first year starting and has shown TONS of improvement from his first game.

He’s behind so he has to throw a lot: Eric Bienemy has a Pass happy scheme. He wants to pass if he is ahead or behind. Commanders record 4-6 is certainly not great. Again, Bienemy runs a pass happy scheme. If the commanders lead or are behind, he’s going to pass. He’s actually put up his best numbers when EB ran the ball at a typical rate for an NFL, as it left the defense guessing. Sam passing so much likely hurts his numbers as the defense can expect the pass. Compared to a more balanced attack where a defense is left guessing.

It’s all EB at not Howell: While we don’t know exactly how EB has developed Sam, one thing is clear. EB is developing as a play called and OC along side same. EB has had PLENTY of questionable play calls, and sometimes not the best game plans. As I mentioned earlier EB does not run the ball. Ever. A more balanced rushing attack would likely IMPROVE Sam stats (other than yards) as it will keep the defense guessing. Sam in-spite of up and down play calling, is playing at a high level.

Sam isn’t a winner: The commanders have one of the worse defenses statistically this year. Sam led game winning/tying drives against the eagles and Seahawks, for his defense and coaches to let him down. Seeing a QB play his BEST football at the end of games screams winner. Even tho the commanders lost those games, it’s hard to put it on Sam…

Conclusion: I conclude with the commanders have found there guy for the future. Clearly the commanders need to build around sam, and not even think about drafting a QB. You draft a QB HOPING it would look as good in 11 starts as Sam has looked this year. Give him a defense and Oline, and see what he can do.

Yeah, we know Bill Parcells said "You are what your record says you are."

But which to teams do you feel are not what their record says they are?

Better than record: Cardinals only because Kyler Murray is back

Worse than record: Steelers whose luck will run out any week now. Right guys? Any week now.

Yeah, we know Bill Parcells said "You are what your record says you are."

But which to teams do you feel are not what their record says they are?

Better than record: Cardinals only because Kyler Murray is back

Worse than record: Steelers whose luck will run out any week now. Right guys? Any week now.

The obvious answer to the title is that 3rd down conversion rate should only look at what a team actually did on 3rd down. But nobody actually cares about a team's 3rd down conversion rate. What people are really talking about when looking at that stat is how often can an offense keep the drive alive for another set of downs.

Below is my attempt at ranking every team by their adjusted 3rd down conversion rate. All I did was simply add a team's 4th down conversions to their 3rd down conversions, then recalculated their 3rd down conversion rate.

Not too big of a surprise at the top and bottom. The Eagles, Bills, and Cowboys are great at getting a fresh set of downs and the Jets are awful at doing so.

But there are some interesting results in the middle. The Lions for example are only 15th in 3rd down conversion rate, but when you account for how many times they are then able to convert on 4th down, they are 7th in keeping drives alive.

The Chiefs on the other hand are 4th in pure 3rd down conversions, but have only converted 3 4th down attempts all season dropping them to 10th in adjusted 3rd down rate.

Yes, I was very bored when I decided to look this up on Pro Football Reference's play finder.

The exact parameters I used were: years 2002-2022, regular season only, 40 seconds or less in the 4th quarter, play type field goal, everything else set to default.

I looked at the number of field goal plays run when the scoring margin was exactly -1, and there were 89 such plays. I then looked at how many of those plays resulted in a score, and there were 64 such plays. This results in a success rate of 71.9%.

I did the exact same thing for a scoring margin of -2, but this time, kickers only made 35 out of 58 attempts, for a percentage of 60.3%.

Why is this? Could there be some kind of psychological effect where a kicker feels less nervous if they're only down by 1 and trying to go up by 2, than if they're down by 2 and trying to go up by only 1 (even though it's the exact same game situation)? I could stratify my results by remaining time or field goal distance or some other factor, but surely the sample size is large enough to account for these variables, right?

Out of curiosity, I decided to look up the success rate in tie games (where a field goal wins instead of sending the game to overtime) and in situations where the offense is down by 3 (where a field goal sends the game to overtime instead of losing). For those, I got 196/269 (72.9%) and 107/150 (71.3%) respectively, so it seems like it's the "down by 2" situation that's the outlier.

Thoughts?