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Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfpjBLtv92U&t=16s

JT O'Sullivan took huge issue over Carr not even trying to make a tackle despite injury around 25 minutes into the video. He says O-linemen see that and get pissed off. How do you feel personally?

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It seems safe to assume that the falcons would normally have preferred to play their star running back unless he was actually unable to play effectively.

Given that assumption, there are only three options:

A) Bijan’s injury was unknown to the falcons until it was too late to disclose on the injury report.

B) Bijan was hurt, the falcons knew about it, and they were attempting to gain a competitive advantage against their opponent THIS WEEK by not disclosing the injury

C) Bijan was hurt, and the falcons were attempting to hide the nature of the injury to obtain a longer term competitive advantage.

Let’s ignore options A) and B) as they aren’t very fun to discuss. If we look at option C), what injury would the falcons look to hide? I would argue that an injury capable of keeping Bijan out multiple weeks is a clear motive to mask a more serious injury as a nebulous “headache.” This is especially true if this hidden injury would have the capacity to sideline Bijan for multiple weeks.

Let’s now think - in this era, what injury could have the potential to keep a player out multiple weeks yet be effectively disguised as a headache? CONCUSSION!

The evidence (conclusively?) points to Bijan sustaining a concussion during practice on Thursday or Friday, with the falcons minimizing a concussion by only reporting a single, innocuous symptom - a last minute “headache” - to avoid further scrutiny.

Am I crazy here?

TL;DR: Falcons hid a Bijan concussion from the nfl. Take away all the draft picks.

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We're getting to the over the hump part of the season, /r/NFL, and we're no closer to figuring out half of these teams' identities. Happy Halloween week, everyone! I hope all of you get dressed up in some amazing costumers, get big sized candy, and have a great team win. We had a lot of upsets last week, and I was barely able to predict close to halfway on these games, going 6-7 and bringing me to 65-41 on the season. How did everyone else do? We only have four division games this week with some more cross-conference games lined up. But strangely enough, there are no byes in Week 8, halfway through the season. Let's get to it!


Winner Loser Comments
Bills over Buccaneers Buffalo has off on their offensive performances the past two weeks, especially Allen. He will get charged up here in a matchup that will call for him to pass, pass and pass some more as there's not much point forcing a shaky running game on Tampa. Baker is struggling now with turnovers and being one-dimensional on a short week facing an angry Buffalo defense.
Vikings over Packers I believe the Packers are slightly favored, but they've averaged only 16.7 PPG the past three weeks, scoring just six points in the first half of the last four games. Minnesota's coming of a short week with two road wins and they'll add another one here.
Titans over Falcons Atlanta has been tough to pick this year and it'll continue this week as it's another coin-flip game for a young team on the road, but Tennessee is coming off a bye week. The Titans are 2-0 S/U at home. Atlanta ranks eighth in the NFL in rushing defense, so Tennessee will need to be more than Henry on offense.
Saints over Colts This Super Bowl 44 matchup could be what NOLA needs to right the ship on offense. Indy has four turnovers in back-to-back weeks. While the Saints are considered the underdog here, the defense will contain Taylor and the offense will sputter to a close in, splitting their AFC South games 2-2.
Dolphins over Patriots Belichick got his 300th win last week, and now the Pats head to Miami – where the Dolphins are coming off a loss to Philly. Miami is a different team at home, winning those games by an average of 28.7 PPG. Tua has a 132.3 passer rating at home, too and Miami has won the last three home meetings by 10.7 PPG.
Jets over Giants Since both teams' home is MetLife, neither one really has homefield advantage in this matchup. The Giants are coming off their first win of the season, but the offense still averages 11.2 points in its last five games. Jet's win coming off a bye in a close one.
Cowboys over Rams Dallas had a bye week, and they have been dominant in their two home games; winning by a combined score of 78-3. The Rams are stepping up in their weekly matchups, but Stafford has taken 11 sacks. The Cowboys will be bringing pressure.
Jaguars over Steelers This is a good matchup between two emerging AFC powers. Lawrence is locked in with Etienne and all of his weapons and the Jaguars' defense has been a turnover-forcing machine. Pickett is playing better with more of his key support and Watt is doing major damage for the Steelers' defense. This is really tough to call, but Lawrence's arm and athleticism can help him make more big plays.
Eagles over Commanders Hurts played through a knee injury on SNF, but the Eagles bounced back and head into a rematch with NFC East rival. Philly won a 34-31 thriller on Oct. 1. Washington has lost to the Bears and Giants in two of their last three games. Philly also has won the last two meetings at Washington. The trend will continue.
Texans over Panthers The clash of Young and Stroud will be interesting to watch in their first start against each other. Stroud has led the Texans to victories in three of their last four games, and they are coming off a bye week. The Panthers are winless but also coming off a bye week. Which QB avoids sacks and turnovers? Young has 20 (6 INTs, 14 sacks) and Stroud has 14 (1 INT, 13 sacks) at this point.
Seahawks over Browns Cleveland may be going on the road with either a gimpy Watson or Walker. They've won a battle of attrition against the Niners and a crazy shootout at Indy. But Seattle's settled defense can cause them problems with no consistent passing game. On the flip side, the Browns are leaky enough against the power run that Smith can lean on Walker to grind a win.
Chiefs over Broncos The Chiefs just saw the Broncos two weeks ago and nothing much will change in the rematch, except that Mahomes, Kelce and the offense will execute better with fewer mistakes. The Chiefs' defense continues to dominate and when the Broncos don't stick with running well, they are lost around Wilson.
Ravens over Cardinals The Ravens have allowed 17 points or less in their last four games. Arizona has lost four straight, and they have failed to score more than 20 points. Baltimore is hitting a groove at the right time. Lamar has completed 70% or more of his passes in all but one game this season.
49ers over Bengals Tough pick in this matchup. The Niners are working on a short week and Cincy had a bye week. The key for the Bengals on the road will be generating more out of a running game that only has 69.8 YPG. That will free up Burrow for more. The Bengals defense has also struggled against the run by allowing 142.8 YPG. Burrow can keep this one close. Both teams protect the football well.
Chargers over Bears Are the Bears a different team with rookie QB Bagent? The reason for improvement also is a tough run defense that has allowed just 52.2 rushing yards in its last four games. Chicago has covered in its last two road games, too. The Chargers' season is on the brink, and they cannot afford a third straight loss.
Lions over Raiders The Lions laid a big egg in Baltimore. Their defense went into the tank against the run after dominating all season and they couldn't pressure or cover anyone downfield. But they have an immediate get-well game against a weaker, Raiders team. Goff will rebound with plenty of help from the running game setting up big pass plays, while Hutchinson will go back to leading a much stouter effort on the other side.

Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun. Best of luck!

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As the title suggests, the NFL needs to change how they schedule teams after bye weeks. Teams that come off of bye weeks should be playing each other. It is not right, nor is it fair for the team that is not coming off of a bye to have to play against a team that has come off a bye week. I'm a 49ers fan so I can only speak about our schedule. I'm not saying that the only reason the 9ers lost was because of the bye week. The 49ers had a lot of issues, no doubt about it. Even still, we played against the Browns in their home stadium, after the Browns came off a bye. This weekend we play the Bengals who are also coming off a bye. On top of that, my team is coming off of a short week. Again, not saying that is a massive factor, but it does seem right.

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As the title suggests, the NFL needs to change how they schedule teams after bye weeks. Teams that come off of bye weeks should be playing each other. It is not right, nor is it fair for the team that is not coming off of a bye to have to play against a team that has come off a bye week. I'm a 49ers fan so I can only speak about our schedule. I'm not saying that the only reason the 9ers lost was because of the bye week. The 49ers had a lot of issues, no doubt about it. Even still, we played against the Browns in their home stadium, after the Browns came off a bye. This weekend we play the Bengals who are also coming off a bye. On top of that, my team is coming off of a short week. Again, not saying that is a massive factor, but it does seem right.

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Not the hottest take around, but it’s absolutely wild to see instant reactions and turn-abouts following a Monday night game.

Everyone completely ripping Purdy (terrible in 4th quarter).

Everyone completely on Cousins MVP chase.

Absolutely wild.

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Other than the John Candy moment. What is really spoken?

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It’s well discussed that Jalen Hurts can squat about six benjamins and that it has just as much, if not more, of an impact on the play as good O-Linemen have.

There’s really nothing about the play that’s hiding anything, and the coming play is obvious once the team lines up for it.

While other players may be at injury risk, the QB ultimately matters most and they are the ball carrier getting hit. There are a lot of guys that can squat 600 pounds, most of them just don’t play quarterback. So… why would most teams bother with having the QB take the snap when running the play?

Jalen may have a unique advantage over most if not all NFL QBs, but stick a beefy fullback out there on 4th and 1 to take the snap and chug forward while guys push his tush. Of course the FB lining up behind the center is a clear indication of what’s coming, but that doesn’t matter with this specific play.

I’m willing to bet most teams would increase their success rate with the play if they subbed their QB out and put in a fullback or their powerback RB under center when running it. And maybe less teams would be interested in banning it since the Eagles would not have as large of an advantage.

Thoughts?

tl;dr: have a FB take the snap for the tush push instead of whatever QB a team has that can’t squat 600 pounds

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Something interesting I noticed, the Seahawks have just been the Eagles one year apart from each other:

2020 Eagles and 2021 Seahawks: team falls apart and trades it’s qb in the offseason

2021 Eagles and 2022 Seahawks: expected to be rebuilding, surpasses expectations but loses a lopsided affair as the 7 seed

2022 Eagles: Best team in the conference, ends up making Super Bowl

So the Seahawks might not be the best team in the conference, but the NFC is wide open this year and could potentially make this arc complete

1837
 
 

Just posting a career stats update on ya boy, Lavonte David.

TFL: Currently ranked 11th all time with 149 behind players like Terrell Suggs, J.J. Watt, Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, DeMarcus Ware, Aaron Donald, Calais Campbell, Von Miller, Cameron Jordan, and Jason Taylor. If you haven’t noticed, all of those guys played on the line. David does not. The next closest offball LB on that is Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher at 138 and you would have to go even further to find the next closest, London Fletcher and then Ray Lewis. Is this a relatively new stat? Sure. Not many LBs are consistently blowing up screens. Solo Tackles: Currently ranked 16th overall with 982 solo tackles. If he replicates last year’s performance, he will finish the season with 1,029 putting him 12th overall just behind Brian Urlacher (1,046), Ronde Barber (1,044), and Lawyer Milloy (1,033). By comparison his peer, Bobby Wagner, is currently at 935. You would have to drop at least 100 tackles to see other LBs of the same generation.

Combined Tackles: David, is currently 18th all time in combined tackles with 1,399 putting him just ahead of Urlacher (1,361). By comparison, Bobby Wagner has 1,586.

Forced Fumbles: David is currently tied at 32 with 27 forced fumbles. Who is he tied with? Tony Brackens, Khalil Mack, Clay Matthews, Von Miller, and J.J. Watt. Again, Dlinemen. If you look at the forced fumble list, its mostly dlineman and legendary DBs like Peanut Tillman, Brian Dawkins, and Charles Woodson showing up near the top. Closest LB is Mr. Derrick Brooks at 24.

On top of all that, the guy has a ring where he was a major factor when he was asked to run with a HoF TE. Now keep in mind with all of that, the guy still isn’t considered to be a HoF lock (when he should be) because of his lack of accolades. And without these accolades, he’s just some guy. Some guy that consistently makes plays in different defensive schemes regardless of who stands next to or in front of him.

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Rank Team Adj. Win %
1 Kansas City .763
2 Philadelphia .760
3 Baltimore .730
4 Jacksonville .707
5 Cleveland .690
6 Pittsburgh .690
7 Detroit .673
8 San Francisco .660
9 Miami .594
10 Houston .573
11 Dallas .564
12 Seattle .547
13 NY Jets .537
14 Atlanta .536
15 Buffalo .534
16 Indianapolis .533
17 Tampa Bay .513
18 Cincinnati .510
19 LA Rams .491
20 Minnesota .448
21 Tennessee .405
22 LA Chargers .394
23 New Orleans .393
24 Washington .388
25 Las Vegas .379
26 New England .362
27 NY Giants .334
28 Green Bay .323
29 Denver .309
30 Chicago .292
31 Arizona .221
32 Carolina .149

I'm using the Colley Matrix iteration process (https://www.colleyrankings.com/method.html)

To summarize, you take the win percentage of every team and correct it against the win percentage of their opponents. Then you have a new win percentage. And I repeat that process until the correction factor is below 0.01%. Essential this is what I would expect the win percentages to be if the teams played an average team every week.

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On this post from a couple of years ago most people in the comments were saying Sean Payton will eventually go into the HOF…did he ruin his legacy by going to Denver?

https://reddit.com/r/nfl/s/uACrUEI8Dq

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In 2016, Christian McCaffrey set the single season record for receptions by a running back with 116 catches.

Alvin Kamara has 35 receptions through 4 games this year (8.75 receptions per game). If he were to maintain his current pace for the Saints' remaining 10 games, he'd finish with 123 catches.

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There was a post yesterday about Zach having a better 4th quarter passer rating than Brock Purdy and I noticed in the linked pro-football-reference stats page that his 4th down passer rating split was shockingly high, so I decided to see where it ranked all-time (min 25 attempts). Once he figures it out on the other three downs its over for the rest of you hoes

All-Time Rank Player 4th Down Passer Rating
1 Patrick Mahomes 128.2
2 Scott Mitchell 125.0
3 Andy Dalton 122.2
4 Peyton Manning 121.9
5 Justin Herbert 120.0
6 Rich Gannon 119.7
7 Jalen Hurts 119.7
8 Joe Burrow 115.9
9 Mark Brunell 114.7
10 Zach Wilson 114.3

Active Player Rank Player 4th Down Passer Rating
1 Patrick Mahomes 128.2
2 Andy Dalton 122.2
3 Justin Herbert 120.0
4 Jalen Hurts 119.7
5 Joe Burrow 115.9
6 Zach Wilson 114.3
7 Derek Carr 109.3
8 Jacoby Brissett 105.5
9 Trevor Lawrence 104.8
10 Jimmy Garoppolo 103.2

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Football is generally known as the league with the most ~~parody~~ parity because of the draft+salary cap (though we've seen this can be offset with franchise QBs), while baseball with a looser salary cap and a less consequential draft makes it more like European soccer.

However this year's world series is featuring two teams who were among the league's worst just two years prior.

What's the closest NFL equivalent?

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