We’re 2/3 done with the regular season, which gives every player enough time to show their true colors this season, whether they are much better or much worse than in previous seasons. This begs the question:

Which players are having breakout seasons this year? On the other side of the coin, which players are having breakdown seasons?

(no rookies)

They teased it a couple of times but never actually ran the segment. Anyone else notice this?

Created a legitimate post that sparked some high quality football discussion. It got deleted for Rule 2.

Should I have tweeted it out first, then posted the tweet?

Goodbye forever, garbage "forum"

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At the beginning of the season, the map is divided into 32 regions, each controlled by a team in the NFL. When a team defeats another team, if the defeated team controls any land, that land is taken by the winner.

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Week 12

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Territory Changes

The Browns lost 14 territories to the Broncos

The Lions lost 8 territories to the Packers

The Texans lost 2 territories to the Jaguars

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Album of all maps

GIF through Week 12

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Leaderboard

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The Browns have held the most territory this season (47).

The Bears, Panthers, Patriots, Titans, and Vikings are tied for least territory held (1).

To get these scores, I gave each team a point for each territory they held per week (so if a team held 4 territories for 5 weeks, they would get 20 points)

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Upcoming Battles

The 49ers are battling the Eagles

The Broncos are battling the Texans

The Jaguars are battling the Bengals

The Packers are battling the Chiefs

Football has always been this way. It’s a war of attrition. Football is a sloppy game played on dirt and grass whether rain, snow, or shine.

When offenses score, it’s “good football”. When offenses don’t score, it’s “bad football”. Guess what everybody, there’s a whole other side of the game: defense!

Statistical analyses that indicate a recent decline in scoring have an easy explanation. Defenses have gotten better! Specifically, Vic Fangio kicked off an advancement of Cover 2, 4, and 6 concepts, and DCs around the league have coached up their defenses to play spectacular zone defense. And at the same time, DCs have increased their blitz aggressiveness on third downs!

Last night was an excellent example. Brian Flores’ defense might drop 8 on one snap, then send 8 on the next. The Bears’ Tampa 2 last night was impressive, seamlessly switching their assignments and making plays on the ball. All I have seen/heard about the game was how bad it was. How could a game that ended on a game-winning FG be a bad football game? I truly don't get it.

There’s a strong trend of fans criticizing players and coaches when they fail. They suck. They’re “JAGs”. Most of the time, one player is good, and the other player is better! Isn't that a wild concept?

In my opinion, if you believe the quality of football has declined, you simply don’t like football. You have an idea about what football is—big plays, big games—and then reality does not meet your expectations. I see the posts every year about how football isn’t as good as it used to be, and it’s not true. You just don’t like football, and that’s fine.

This is a response to growing sentiments among Redditors and football media (reporters/writers, podcasters, TV analysts), not Tom Brady. I think TB said what he said because he’s a competitive maniac who has the ultimate perfectionist’s standards of play. The GOAT gets a pass; the rest of you don’t.

Feel free to shit talk me as much as I’ve shit talked you.

With the tush push being so effective, they effectively only have to get 9 yards every three downs. So what kind of advantage does it give them

Anyone else think Gardner has actually become somewhat underrated? Maybe it’s people not caring about Indy, but he’s having a decent season for a back up.

With how bad QB play is around the league (Fields, Wilson, Pickett, DeVito, Bryce, Mac, etc.) I’d wager a lot of teams would love someone who’s competent, tough, accurate, somewhat mobile and a leader like Minshew. He doesn’t have a big arm, he doesn’t have high end athletic traits, he’s short, etc., but the guy can play some football and help a good team stay above water.

His rookie season was great in my eyes. The stats were honestly really good. Say what you want, but that Jags team also wasn’t very good. Watching a guy like Bryce Young play, who I’ll admit is probably in an even worse situation than Minshew was in with the Jags, really puts things into perspective of how rare it is to have a QB who’s competent and not horrendous.

Is he a star? Absolutely not. Is he a franchise guy? Nah. Is he an extremely high end back up / bridge QB? Honestly yes.

Curious as to what everyone’s thoughts are. I know he’s been a topic of discussion in the past but it seems like he isn’t talked about anymore even though he’s winning some games for a decent Indy team and not looking bad in the process. Not advocating for him to be “the guy”, that’s Richardson based on tools and potential, but I think guys like Minshew are insanely valuable.

Google wasn't much help and I was curious. There's a loud contingent calling for Arthur Smith's job. If the Falcons win the south but lose handedly in the first round of the playoffs, could he still be fired in the off season?

ptdotme's NFL Elo Power Rankings After Week 12

(By popular demand, see the rankings without the influence of last year's season-ending ratings in my comment below, or here.)

This is OC. I’ve written code to calculate NFL team Elo ratings^1 on a week to week basis. The goal is to use simple Elo ratings to create power rankings without the influence of human bias and emotion. The ratings are based on each team's rating from the previous week, with a "parity reset" applied every offseason. The model has been tested for accuracy against game outcomes since week 1 of the 2012^2 season. The ratings are derived only from each game's score, venue, and date. There are a number of variables/weights in my secret sauce but otherwise they're fairly conservative, basic, Elo ratings.

This is all a work in progress and feedback is appreciated! See more stats and info on my 2023 NFL Elo Power Rankings page.

Note: You may feel teams are ranked too high or low based on recent games, and you may be right. However, the model has been tested and is more accurate when it doesn't overreact to individual games. The goal is model accuracy, not rankings that "look right." ^(2)  

^(1)See Wikipedia. Elo ratings are numeric and assigned to each contestant. The ratings are used to estimate performance. After each game, the difference between a contestant's estimated and actual performance is used to update their rating. For the NFL, this can all be summarized as "Who did you beat/lose to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to ...

^(2)Moving backward through the years, each preceding season has a much smaller impact on the current ratings. Team ratings from 2010 have zero impact on today's ratings. Ratings from only a couple years ago, say 2021, have almost no effect on today's ratings. Seasons going back to 2010 are only used by the model to ensure its accuracy over thousands of NFL games.  

The mediocrity, or parity, however you want to brand it, is astounding this year. Who I’m the hell would have ever thought that 12 weeks into the season, all of the Bengals, Chargers, Bills, and Jets…would all not only be on the outside of the playoffs looking in, but two of them would be staring down the barrel at top 10 draft picks.

I know that at present you couldn’t remove all human officiating but I personally support some upgrades.

For example, sensors in the ball and on the field that give perfect ball placement every time. Particularly at the goal line.

Breakdown of the Super Bowl winning starting quarterbacks and the number they wore. What do you think will be the next number to get their first super bowl (1,2, and 6), and what number do you think will never win it at all or again?

Personally, with Tua and Hurts playing so good right now, its hard to not say 1 will be the next to get their first.

I think civilization will end before we see another QB with 19 win.

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# in parentheses indicates how many they won as the STARTER

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Every year we see various fanbases complain about the ownership of their favorite NFL team and wishing they would do better/sell, ect. Many dislike their ownership for perceived incompententcies in running the organization (Mark Davis, David Tepper), others dislike their owner based on personal dislike (Dan Snyder before he sold). So my question for you: what makes a good NFL owner? Should they be highly involved in team decision making ala Jerry Jones? Be way hands off like Kroenke? Does their participation in the community matter as much as winning championships? Or do you just want success?

Edit: I guess I should say, this is an excellent opportunity for Packers shareholders to pat themselves on the back

So I don’t post much at all so I apologize if this is not on topic. Whether you like the Packers or not, think Jordan Love is a bust or a future hall of famer, he deserved a turkey leg or a piece of turducken. Might I suggest a way to right this injustice: give a donation to your local food bank. They always struggle to have enough and more people are struggling with food insecurity. It would be pretty cool if this diverse community of fan bases can get together to help out a worthy cause in their community.

• Jalen: 162/246 for 1716 yards 10 TDs 10 INTs
• Purdy: 168/233 for 2170 yards 17 TDs 2 INTs

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HurtJa00/splits/2023/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PurdBr00/splits/2023/