Imagine having one less work day
this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2023
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It extends a lot of drives. 4 and 1. 4th and 2. Are no longer punts. Defense has to stay on field which tires them out and helps our time of possession.
Don’t think as much as people think it is. Most good offenses have good conversion rates on 4th and 1. The eagles obviously are goated at it
Gaining 1 yard on 4th down really isn't all that difficult for any team in the league, I'd be surprised if we convert it even 5% more than league average.
We converted 4th and 1 on our own 30 in the first quarter against the cowboys. I don’t think any other team goes for it, so it is certainly helpful
When you guys were going for it, I thought it was a crazy decision. But now I know, no team in the league can defend it lmao
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Almost as big an advantage as they get from the reffing.
One yard
People keep saying 1st and 9 but every time they run it they get like three yards lol
I’d say we’d be at like 95% chance on 4th&1 and like 70% on 4th&2
Honestly, if it didn't apparently take so much out of our players, we should be running it for a 2pt conversion every time. A 70% success rate would make that the analytically correct move in neutral situations.
I'll admit I don't pay a ton of attention to the games, but I swear to God I have not seen DeAndre Swift rush for less than 12 yards this year.
They currently convert 76.5% of their 4th downs, compared to a league median of 50%. Regressing them to the median would result in 4.5 more failed attempts. They average 2.54 points per drive, so 4.5*2.54 = 11.43 points on the season, or roughly 1 point per game. According to Vegas, a 1 point shift in point spread averages out to a 1.3% increase in win probability.
So about 1.3% of an advantage.
Wouldn't your math show 11.4pts per game increase
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This is what I wanted to say without being nearly as articulate or smart.
Thank you.
They also run the play on 3rd down a lot and they run it at the 1 or 2 yd line regardless of down sometimes. It is definitely a lot more valuable than your brief 4th down analysis. It pretty consistently sustains drives that would have otherwise had a much higher probability of ending sooner.
Ok so in Vegas that’s a huge edge. Is it in football?
Does this also account for how much more they go for it on 4th vs. other teams because of it?
about 10%
Ignoring all the dumb Reddit-ass “joke” answers, it helps a lot when you can shoot short of the sticks or the endzone. It completely changes how a defense had to defend third down. All of a sudden if you’re protecting the sticks a decent run by a RB gets them in position for an easy 4th down conversion. But then if you try to prevent them from getting into push range you’re potentially giving up bigger chunk plays.
edit I think the redzone it has the biggest advantage. Normally the defense would be at an advantage because they’re defending a much shorter field, but then they also have a tendency to defend past the pylons instead of before them.
having watched every eagles snap the last 3 years, it feels like a substantial advantage, particularly in playcalling.
for example, we're very comfortable running on 3rd and 4 with the expectation that we're always going for it on 4th and short.
its a tough task for defenses because they have to defend the entire playbook every snap.
More like only 8 yds, they can do the push for 2 yds all day.
Part of it is modern defenses are not built to stop every play. They have a certain amount of bend to then to not give up bigger plays.
So, what you'll often see from the Eagles, is they take those 3-5 yard buffer plays (a quick checkdown to Smith, a run up the middle). Then on third downs, defenses usually play the sticks, trying to force a punt. The Eagles push this to take the easy yards and come up short on 3rd down, specifically knowing how common 4th-1s can be.
What you saw in the Jets game (and early on against Kansas City and Buffalo to a degree), was the defense selling out to stop those little plays - extra pressure on first down, right coverage combined with blitzes. The goal was to set up 4th and long, rather than just 4th down.
Yeah I want to point out that if the chiefs offense didn't shit the bed entirely that would be roughly the blueprint to beating the eagles, sell out to set up 4th and long, and force hurts to beat you with intermediate passes.
I think it's more of a MENTAL advantage.
Knowing 4th and 1 is automatic even in your own half means you are always in 4 down territory and opens up the playbook more.
Also I think it grinds down the morale of the opposing defense knowing full well what's coming on 3rd and 1 amd being helpless against it anyway.
That feeling of helplessness in that situation when a defense should be getting ready to leave the field is a big advantage IMO.
10%?
Yeah, it’s not that. It might actually be higher. But I don’t math well. So…..10%?
The way it opens up the playbook for them and the fact that yards matter more each down I’m just not sure. Because in reality it make a 2nd and 6 really 2nd and 5. It just changes so much
Depending how you do it 2nd and 5 can be as good as 1st and 5. Just depends where on the field (though the Eagles have been daring once or twice deep enough in their territory).
It’s an age old want from coaches. A play that is about a guarantee of 2-3 yards each time. I don’t think this one is a guarantee forever, but it has been so far.
It’s admittedly boring as fuck, but also effective as fuck.
One thing I have noticed is that the Eagles do extend alot of drives using the tush push even if they are in their own side of the field.
Hard to quantify how big of an advantage that really is but I do recall one drive where they used it multiple times to just keep the drive alive and score with it.
You don’t punt on 4th and 1
You do in your own territory
They're not gonna do this on every 4&1 ya know