this post was submitted on 30 Jul 2026
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It's not manufactured scarcity, it's just scarcity that the market can't (or won't risk) reacting to quickly.
It costs hundreds of billions and multiple years to build out the capacity to make these chips at scale, and decades to earn back that investment on each plant. If the companies think it's going to be a short term thing, they won't build enough new plants because that would risk being over-supplied and not being able to recoup the investment. If they think it's going to be a long term thing, they will start building. They are clearly building some new capacity, so they must think it's not entirely a short term thing. However, they won't build as much as possible, because that risks oversupplying if too much gets built and the demand shifts.
LLMs could shift to an entirely new tech that doesn't rely on these chips in 5 years, and then they'd be fucked.
All it takes is one crazy ass dude or dudette to build out a more efficient biological processor or something and then we're all going to be growing AI brains in jars to do our work for us.