First of all, I want to credit u/NBC7x for coming up with the name. I made a post last week about this concept, but I'm reintroducing it here from a different point of view.
Have you ever watched a game where a team seems to purposefully run a "bad" play on 3rd down that leaves them just short of getting a 1st down? Well sometimes, it's simply poor play calling or poor execution. But more often now than ever, teams call 3rd down like they do 2nd down, knowing they'll go for it on 4th if they are close enough.
So what I came up with is called the Drive Continuation Rate (DCR). I've just added a team's successful 4th down conversions to their 3rd down conversions, the divided by their 3rd down attempts. Here's where every team ranks:
| Rank | Team | 3DAtt | 3DConv | 4DConv | DCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 137 | 66 | 13 | 57.7% |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 133 | 64 | 6 | 52.6% |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | 141 | 66 | 7 | 51.8% |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 137 | 58 | 12 | 51.1% |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 138 | 60 | 10 | 50.7% |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | 150 | 62 | 14 | 50.7% |
| 7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 139 | 60 | 10 | 50.4% |
| 8 | Kansas City Chiefs | 129 | 59 | 5 | 49.6% |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | 146 | 63 | 9 | 49.3% |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | 106 | 47 | 4 | 48.1% |
| 11 | Houston Texans | 137 | 60 | 5 | 47.4% |
| 12 | Baltimore Ravens | 139 | 62 | 3 | 46.8% |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | 145 | 54 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 14 | Los Angeles Rams | 135 | 55 | 7 | 45.9% |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 140 | 58 | 6 | 45.7% |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 138 | 56 | 7 | 45.7% |
| 17 | Indianapolis Colts | 143 | 56 | 8 | 44.8% |
| 18 | Miami Dolphins | 107 | 41 | 5 | 43.0% |
| 19 | Washington Commanders | 142 | 53 | 8 | 43.0% |
| 20 | New Orleans Saints | 148 | 54 | 8 | 41.9% |
| 21 | Denver Broncos | 123 | 47 | 4 | 41.5% |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 131 | 46 | 7 | 40.5% |
| 23 | Las Vegas Raiders | 132 | 43 | 10 | 40.2% |
| 24 | Arizona Cardinals | 136 | 48 | 6 | 39.7% |
| 25 | Cincinnati Bengals | 129 | 46 | 5 | 39.5% |
| 26 | Tennessee Titans | 121 | 40 | 6 | 38.0% |
| 27 | New England Patriots | 132 | 45 | 5 | 37.9% |
| 28 | New York Giants | 165 | 51 | 11 | 37.6% |
| 29 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 136 | 47 | 4 | 37.5% |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | 153 | 50 | 7 | 37.3% |
| 31 | Seattle Seahawks | 123 | 39 | 6 | 36.6% |
| 32 | New York Jets | 131 | 30 | 10 | 30.5% |
So if a team failed on 3rd down, but then was successful on 4th, I'm counting that as a successful drive continuation attempt. However, if a team failed on 3rd down, then failed on their 4th down attempt (or didn't go for it all), I'm counting that as a failed drive continuation attempt.
I know this doesn't account for every situation. For example, a team down 1 point with 20 seconds left and the ball on their opponents 10 yard line will likely "fail" on 3rd down by simply running to the preferred hashmark of their kicker and then make a game winning kick as time expires. In this specific scenario, I've counted that as a failed drive continuation attempt for a team that executed a game winning play.
For the most part though, this gives you a good overall look at how good/bad teams are at keeping drives alive on the final play of a set of downs where they plan on turning the ball over to the other team if their play is not successful.
Looks like a mix between Series Conversion Rate that I think Timo Riske makes, and regular old 3rd Down %, still fun stuff!