TLDR: A few conditions exist where the Cowboys would be good enough to clinch the 5th seed by December 17, but bad enough where they are eliminated from division contention. The Cowboys would have a full month of not playing a relevant game (December 17th to January 13th-15th). This is an unlikely scenario but I got bored.
Conditions that need to happen:
COWBOYS
Week 13: W vs Seahwaks
Week 14: L vs Eagles
Week 15: W vs Bills
Record after December 17th: 10-4
Worst possible record: 10-7
Best possible record: 13-4
EAGLES
Go 3-0 over next three weeks
Week 13: 49ers
Week 14: Cowboys
Week 15: Seahawks
Record after December 17th: 13-1
Worst possible record: 13-4 with tiebreaks over cowboys
SEAHAWKS
Lose at least 2 of the next 3 with 1 loss coming against Cowboys.
Week 13: Cowboys
Week 14: 49ers
Week 15: Eagles
Record after December 17th: 7-7
Best possible record: 10-7 without tiebreaks
VIKINGS
Lose the next 2 games
Week 13: Bye
Week 14: Raiders
Week 15: Bengals
Record after December 17th: 6-8
Best possible record: 10-8
PACKERS
Lose 2 of the next 3
Week 13: Chiefs
Week 14: Giants
Week 15: Bucs
Record after December 17th: 6-8
Best possible record: 10-8
RAMS
Lose 2 of the next 3
Week 13: Browns
Week 14: Ravens
Week 15: Commanders
Record after December 17th: 6-8
Best possible record: 10-8
NFC SOUTH
Two of the Falcons (5-6), Saints (5-6), and Bucs (4-7) get to 8 losses by Dec 17th. Falcons and Bucs play each other so guaranteed L for one of them.
Next 3 if each team
Falcons: Jets, Bucs, Panthers
Saints: Lions, Panthers, Giants
Bucs: Panthers, Falcons, Packers
And that Raiders Chargers game came to a last second kick in overtime…I was stressed