this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2023
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Basketball Reference has a Simple Rating System based on point differential and strength of schedule, not wins and losses. In the East, the biggest discrepancies are the Atlanta Hawks (ranked 9th according to wins and losses but 5th according to SRS), and the Miami Heat (ranked 5th according to wins and losses but 9th according to SRS).
In the West, the biggest discrepancies are the Golden State Warriors (ranked 10th according to wins and losses but 5th according to SRS) and the Dallas Mavericks (ranked 5th according to wins and losses but 10th according to SRS). SRS is usually considered more accurate by bettors, so perhaps the Hawks and Warriors are better than they appear and the Heat and Mavs are worse than they appear.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024.html
Interestingly, the Nuggets had an SRS of 3.04 last year through the regular season. This was the 6th best SRS in the league, trailing the Grizzlies in the west and the Celtics, Cavs, 76ers, and Bucks in the east.
I’m not sure why they were underrated so much by this metric, considering just how dominant they were in the playoffs and how much Basketball Reference adores Jokic’s advanced stats. Maybe it had to do with some early season performances when Murray was still ramping up.
Murray played much, much better in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. Many people attributed that to the fact that he was coming back from a major injury and a year off to rehab. But it's also possible that he just got hot at the right time.