this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2023
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Whether a team is under or over performing, who's gonna be a complete opposite by the end of the season compared to now?

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[–] wjbc@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (5 children)

Basketball Reference has a Simple Rating System based on point differential and strength of schedule, not wins and losses. In the East, the biggest discrepancies are the Atlanta Hawks (ranked 9th according to wins and losses but 5th according to SRS), and the Miami Heat (ranked 5th according to wins and losses but 9th according to SRS).

In the West, the biggest discrepancies are the Golden State Warriors (ranked 10th according to wins and losses but 5th according to SRS) and the Dallas Mavericks (ranked 5th according to wins and losses but 10th according to SRS). SRS is usually considered more accurate by bettors, so perhaps the Hawks and Warriors are better than they appear and the Heat and Mavs are worse than they appear.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024.html

[–] _darkfantasy@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Interestingly, the Nuggets had an SRS of 3.04 last year through the regular season. This was the 6th best SRS in the league, trailing the Grizzlies in the west and the Celtics, Cavs, 76ers, and Bucks in the east.

I’m not sure why they were underrated so much by this metric, considering just how dominant they were in the playoffs and how much Basketball Reference adores Jokic’s advanced stats. Maybe it had to do with some early season performances when Murray was still ramping up.

[–] wjbc@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Murray played much, much better in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. Many people attributed that to the fact that he was coming back from a major injury and a year off to rehab. But it's also possible that he just got hot at the right time.

[–] Flareon7@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Heat outperforming their net rating is definitely a trend, and I wouldn’t bet on it stopping. They tend to win most of their close games.

Last year’s Heat were bottom 10 in net rating and they made it to the finals.

Mavs however, wouldn’t surprise me if they dipped a bit.

[–] Respected-Watcher@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Yeah we have plenty of evidence to suggest this metric doesn’t really relate to us

[–] Somberoking@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

This year has seemed to be a little different for the heat, they have blow multiple 20 points leads and struggled when close (e.g. vs knicks and bulls most recently)

Hopefully when Tyler is healthy that will change

[–] JAJAJAGuy@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

The problem with the Hawks is Jalen Johnson just got injured and will be out for some time.

[–] HamlnHand@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

We basically lost LeBron James lite

[–] 3luejays@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Big blow to how fun my fantasy team was to follow

[–] WembyandTheWolves@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Wow, the Celtics and 76ers have a huge lead over everyone else.

[–] clownysf@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Good comment, but why do you talk like chatGPT?

[–] wjbc@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

It’s because I used proper grammar and complete sentences, I suppose. You aren’t the only person to comment on it. It’s a pity that such writing now makes readers suspicious.

[–] clownysf@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I think it’s suspiciously proper. Something you would see in a professional/academic setting, but not too common on social media or message boards. Also, the last sentence is a little odd imo. Like, we all just read your post - did you really need to include a conclusion?

[–] wjbc@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Well, I'm a lawyer, so that's just the way I write.

[–] AffectLast9539@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

most educated r/nba user