With Frank Reich getting fired and Bryce Young not looking anything like the player he was at Bama (granted he's not working with much), this inquiry seemed highly relevant to me and the NFL could look very different if the dominoes fell in a different formation.
Pretty straightforward: Lovie said fuck it and coached his boys to win their second game of the year in the last week of 22, ultimately losing the first overall pick in the draft and instead picking 2 overall. Thus, Chicago does not get the first pick and Carolina would not be able to trade up to number 1. Houston would not have traded that first pick, and they'd have their choice of the 2 consensus top QBs.
I'm not saying Stroud wasn't their guy. He may have been that dude regardless and they very well could have picked him. But most prognosticators assessed Young as the safer prospect with a higher ceiling.
What if Houston gets that first pick and drafts Young? Does Chicago trade their pick still? Does Chicago stay put? Who do they snag at 2 if so? Does Carolina still try to move up to 2 to get a QB? Does another team like Indy get into the mix? What does Chicago's future outlook look like without those potential picks going forward? Same question about Carolina, reversed. Do they keep all those picks and have a better outlook? What if Chicago doesn't get Moore in a deal? What if the Panthers QB has Moore as his WR1 instead of Theilen? How does Houston look relative to how impressive they've been? Does Carolina still have 1 win? Is Reich still there?
So many dominoes, how would the NFL look if the first domino never happened? Which ones did I miss? Just curious of others thoughts!
My thoughts:
Houston takes Young
Carolina still trades up to 2 - it’s virtually been confirmed there was a 3 way trade between Houston, Chicago, and Carolina that would’ve had Houston getting #1 and Carolina getting #2 that fell apart at the 11th hour. And I still think they have to give up DJ Moore to do so (but maybe don’t have to give up the 2025 2nd as Houston would be providing some capital to Chicago as well)
Young looks much better in Houston than he does in Carolina because Bobby Slowik sure seems like a much better offensive play caller than Young, though I doubt Young reaches the levels Stroud has
Carolina also looks better with Stroud, who simply has shown more arm talent and better anticipation than Young thus far, which would allow him to succeed in some situations where Young has failed. They’re not where Houston is, but they’re closer to .500 than a single win imo which means Reich is still there.
Bonus domino: does Houston take Dell without Stroud pushing for it? Maybe, as he’s still a hometown kid, or maybe Stroud expresses his affinity for Dell to Carolina and they trade back from 39, don’t take Mingo, and draft Dell in the late 2nd?
I don't think Houston takes Dell without Stroud's input. Based on history, Houston likes bigger receivers, but that's also ignoring not knowing what the new coaching staff likes.