this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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I’m a very big Sengun fan but how realistic is this? Jokic AD are basically locks then there’s Sabonis and KAT.
Selections are divided between frontcourt and guards. There are 3 starting frontcourt players and 2 starting guards, and these are selected based on a combination of fan votes, player votes, and media votes. There are 7 total reserves, and while there is no limitation on number of frontcourt or guard reserves, reserve selections are based on coach votes, and each coach votes for 2 guards, 3 frontcourt players, and 2 wildcards.
With that in mind, it is likely that 6-7 all star players will be frontcourt and 5-6 all star players will be guards. It could vary from that, but based on the vote allotment, that seems likely. In last year's ASG, for example, the East breakdown of selected players (ignoring injury replacements) was 6 guards and 6 frontcourt players, and the West breakdown of selected players (ignoring injury replacements) was 5 guards and 7 frontcourt players.
With that said, you have to consider not just Cs but all frontcourt players (SFs/PFs). I'd currently have Jokic, AD, Sabonis, KAT, Lebron, Zion, PG, KD, and Sengun as the top 9 contenders for a likely 7 spots. He's probably 8 or 9 right now in that group, so just on the outside looking in. Could definitely make it via injury replacement.
Also, maybe Markkanen gets a look if Utah improves, and maybe BI and Kawhi get a look if they can improve their scoring efficiency.
I rarely vote myself so I’m always forgetting it’s just front/backcourt. So very good point on all of that.
A few points, not really arguments just observations after you enlightened me a bit. I don’t agree with it, but it sounds like a lot of people might be voting PG in as a guard which opens up some votes for others so it can only help his case.
I think Kawhi gets votes off legacy, especially since he’s seemingly healthy this year. Lauri and BI need to play better but have the ability to do so like you said (I personally have Lauri > Alperen=BI).
And even though they’re not doing super well, always have to be wary of GSW/LAL frontcourt votes.
But all that aside, you’ve convinced me that Alperen has a realistic shot of getting in (imo probably as a replacement rather than an actual vote in but he wouldn’t be far off if that)
Thing is, the hybrid voting (fans, media, players) is ONLY for starters iirc. The reserves are selected exclusively via coach votes. Point taken on Kawhi but I don't think he's beating out some of the other guys for the 3 frontcourt starting spots. If his only path is thru coach votes, I'm not sure they'll value legacy as much as fans would, for example.
I'm a huge Lauri fan and wanted him on an All-NBA team last season, so I'm sorta there with you, but I think he needs Utah to improve in the standings to have a shot to make it (would also be via coach vote on reserves).
Agreed Sengun's likely path is via injury replacement.