this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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These predictions are basically why tanking is a bad strategy
Tanking for a near lock player like Andrew Luck isn’t too bad.
But tanking any given year just for the top pick isn’t the best strat
Teams with bad players are not fixed with one potentially decent player, news at 11, see also: Browns, Cleveland
Watching the Patriots sub want to lose every game and posting draft order updates and mock drafts starting in like week 4 has been insane.
We don't know what the draft order will be. If we did, we don't know who we'd pick. If we did, we don't know if he'd be any good at all.
If we end up picking first or second, I'd much rather we find someone who wants to trade up and overpay for the pick. Get ~3 shots at impact players instead of putting all our eggs in one basket.
Ownership and management might want to tank, but players' careers are too short for them to tank
I believe that shitty teams are to blame mostly for draft busts. If they were good at developing talent, they wouldn’t be a shitty team.
I mean, you also get the top pick in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, rounds, etc.
Every pick is basically a lottery scratch off, but at least with a high pick you get more choices on the menu.
Tanking works far less well in the NFL because of the relatively low number of viable NFL prospects and the random nature of injuries.
I’m not convinced tanking works all that well in the MLB either, but that’s a different story.
Nah, I hope the Jets tank for the Darnold of every draft.
Or you know trading the farm to move up.
As always, depends. The Jags out-tanked the Jets for the 2021 draft, and the "surefire" consensus #1 pick of Trevor Lawrence has lived up to be very solid.
It's easy to forget that Lawrence had been annoited the #1 pick his freshman year. When you talk about best prospects of all time the list is Elway, Manning, Luck, Lawrence. The real surprising part is that the next 4 1st rd QB's will all be backups next year
They tried their hardest to fuck it up by hiring Urban Meyer, though.
If a team tanks, I think they need to get a franchise altering player with that pick.
Jury is still out on Lawrence. But it's promising.
Jury still out on Travon Walker, and not looking great so far.
Too soon for Bryce Young.
Of the other 21 first overall picks of the 2000's, I think these guys were franchise altering (in a good way).
Michael Vick (though derailed off field)
Carson Palmer (slightly derailed by injury and then contract dispute, but overall I think worthy of #1)
Eli Manning
Jake Long
Matthew Stafford
Cam Newton
Andrew Luck
Jared Goff (I guess.)
Myles Garrett
Joe Burrow
So that's 8 out of 21 that would have been worthy of tanking for. And I'm being generous on a couple.
Tanking is definitely worth trying. I don't get why people say it doesn't work. You have to have some top end picks somewhere on the roster to succeed.
It depends on how one tanks. If you're shipping off guys in their 20s to do it, it's probably not good. Look at the Panthers shipping away CMC and DJ Moore. If your team naturally sucks and it's late in the season then it's different.
Very solid, I just can't stand the fucking pre-draft hype.
People were talking about TLaw like he was football jesus and called him a generational talent and the league was fucked and Brady should go ahead and retire because the true GOAT was here.
It was so fucking annoying. Dude played in the fucking ACC, lets calm down.
I’m not gonna say tanking is a good or bad strategy nor that teams are always particularly effective at talent evaluation but you cannot compare an NFL teams scouting department to some schlubs posting on this forum lol
I was pretty pissed we won a game against the Stafford-less Lions to potentially miss out on Chase Young.