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I gave the methodology a read, and it's a real head scratcher. I haven't sat down and done the math myself, but if I were going to, I would first investigate all the assumptions they had to make, such as:
Anyway, this is where I would start picking this mess apart. If I were so inclined.
From this little bit, I'd be concerned about the analysis using suppressed spending in 2020 as the starting point in 2021, as well as including spending from outside the CPI basket and non household entities in CPI estimates. I'd be concerned about over generalizing the states by estimating using their census units. Basically, I'd consider this report skeptically at best if no additional validation can be provided.