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The Mueller report specifically concludes that they could not find evidence of collusion. It did find clear evidence of Russia trying to influence the election in favor of Trump, but no collusion from the Trump campaign with Russia in this effort. Given what we know about the general competency of Trump and his campaign how likely would it be that he was capable of hiding collusion from the full force of the FBI?
Mueller report also documented many cases of obstruction, the reason they couldn't come to a conclusion, and was hamstringed by not being allowed to look into finances. Also Trump is on record saying he fired Comey for that Russia thing because it was made up (of course Trump never lies). So it seems he was capable in some capacity. Also having the boss of the people who are doing the investigation on your side never hurts, why do you think it was shut down soon after Barr was appointed?
Yeah you're right that there is nothing definitive. I've always found Manafort's actions to be the most suspicious though. Maybe "almost certainly" is too presumptive.