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Anyone taking bets for how long until Poohbear starts offering ammunition to Netanyahu to "build diplomatic relations"?
Not a snowball’s chance in hell. Putin backs Iran, which in turn backs Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis. The Israel-Iran proxy conflict has been a US/Russia proxy conflict since Reagan and Gorbachev.
That's true, but also a little more complicated than that I think. At least one of the reasons Israel was able to extract so much aid from the US to begin with was the threat they could align with the Soviet Union (initially one of the biggest supporters of Israel, and first to recognize them as a state officially in 1947, though they had a few others had unofficially recognized them by then). Stalin had a zionist foreign policy, despite (or maybe because of) being antisemitic himself. Though Soviets and Israel largely schismed in 1967 and the Soviet union began throwing its funding behind the surrounding Arab states.
Relations warmed in the 90s again but have been up and down since. But there has been a lot of Russian immigration to Isreal. Russian is the third most spoken language in Israel.
Israel at times has been quite friendly to Russia. It took a neutral stance on the Crimea annexation, infuriating the United States. Russia recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in 2017. Israel refused to recognize Russians assassinating people abroad, infuriating the UK. Netanyahu has spoke often about his friendship with Putin. Israel refused to impose sanctions on Russia or send defensive weapons to Ukraine.
I mean you could go on, it's a complicated relationship, with especially Netanyahu favoring closer relations with Russia and trying to play both sides. Iran's relationship with Russia certainly presents complications, but I don't think Israel getting closer to Russia or at least using the threat of it to extract more from the United States is out of the question. They're often trying to "play both sides" of the Russia and US divide to their benefit. Especially if Netanyahu remains in power.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/ukraine-russia-israel-netanyahu-putin-lapid-kuleba
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/netanyahu-governments-approach-russia-and-ukraine
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Russia_relations
China and Israel have had surprisingly good relations too. And again, Netanyahu has consistently tried to make those closer, possibly to help keep US aid flowing.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-israeli-us-ties-troubled-china-says-xi-looking-forward-to-netanyahu-visit/
Not saying the US shouldn't cut off Isreal, please do, but the results may be surprising if that were to actually happen. I don't think putin harbors any particular concerns for the plight of the Palestinian people.
That all changed when Reagan played both sides by selling arms to Iran in the Iran-Contra scandal while providing military aid to Israel with the mandate that they attack Hezbollah in Lebanon. Gorbachev then reinforced the relations that Russia had with Iran since the Persian Empire, and the Israel-Iran proxy conflict was born.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict
Any diplomatic words from Putin should be seen as coercive agenda. He recently stated that he’d prefer Biden in office over Trump because he’s more predictable, while circulating communication with direction to support and encourage the Republican Party.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/08/russia-propaganda-us-ukraine/
Yes not disputing at all that there's a proxy war (though Soviet Israeli relationship deteriorated long before that started with Soviets funding Israeli opponents since 1967), just that despite or partially because of this, Israel is closer to Russia than most western countries. Isreal doesn't want to upset Russia and give them more incentive to fund proxies against them, and some Israeli governments, like Netanyahu's especially, have helped provide cover for Russian actions. And Russia at times will often take surprisingly pro Israeli moves despite also funding proxies.
I don't think it would be impossible for Israel to switch alignment to Russia, and I think you would quickly see Russia providing cover and stopping any assistance with proxy conflict against them. It would be essentially accomplishing Russia's goal, so what would they have to fight Israel about anymore? Putin is a real politic great powers kind of leader who has no qualms about butchering civilians by the thousands. He's certainly not aligned with Iran because he's concerned about Palestinians. Israel becoming fully aligned with Russia would be accomplishing a 77 year in the making goal for the Soviet Union and Russia.
That’s a fair point. I could see it if Biden cut Israel off for longer enough he’d effectively push Netanyahu into Putin’s arms, like paying protection from the mob. That would also require Netanyahu to remain in office, and he’s polling at 15% favorability as of January. I’m sure that’s gone down since the Iranian retaliation. Elections tend to be reactionary when following tragedy and disaster, so I’m hoping they finally get a more liberal Prime Minister this time around.
Yes totally agree, there's no way this goes anywhere but worse somehow as long as Netanyahu remains in power. Hopefully elections (or just being hauled off to jail hopefully) push him out soon, for everyone's sake.
Funny detail is that Israel was the one that shipped their weapons to Iran, with the US supplying them with replacements
We had better hope hell stays hot and China stays out of it, then. Genocidal assholes don't care where they source their weapons, and I wouldn't put it past him to bend over for any country willing to support his campaign.