this post was submitted on 23 Aug 2023
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Politics
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Him going to jail is the better scenario as he can still run even if he is in prison and he'll split the R vote down the middle. But if he flees the country they'll strike his name off the ballot and you get a DeSantis on the ballot as the official nomination. I still think the R's would lose, but it would be a closer contest.
These trials are going to take forever so I don't think he'll flee until after he loses in 2024. At that point he has no reason to stay anymore.
Though at this point, it looks like Trump will get the nomination with no real competition from DeSantis or anyone else, regardless of going to jail.
Trump fleeing and some states striking him from the ballot will enrage his supporters and make them not vote for who the actual nominee is.
I think the fleeing outcome harms the Republican chances more.