this post was submitted on 23 Aug 2023
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Setting aside anything related to Musk, Tesla really doesn’t seem to be staying competitive.
Cybertruck (and the “indestructible” window press conference) is probably the easiest example. Years of attempted hype that haven’t paid off in a meaningful manner, while rivals have been releasing in-class competition. Anyone can see that’s a problem.
Tesla cars used to be pretty revolutionary, now they’re in an entirely different era that’s filling with exciting EV alternatives around every corner. Yet Tesla style still looks the same. The shoddy construction is still around and becoming more widespread knowledge. They’re failing to attract their target audience due to a long series of missteps. More problems.
Not to mention that Tesla was downright overpriced at its height. It’s a fraction of the volume yet made other automaker valuations look minuscule. The logic for that was never there.
Give it 5 - 10 years. Tesla will be a company that makes and maintains a charging station network and sells batteries to the other auto makers.
It's becoming increasingly obvious that they can't hack it in an automotive sales industry. Which is fine, frankly. I think battery manufacturing and charging network are pretty complimentary industries and provide a decent revenue stream into the future, License the charging tech to other automakers early and get some vendor lock-in going, and the company could be in it for the long haul.
They might even be able to keep making a couple EVs, to prove new charging or battery tech, much like how Google keeps making Pixel phones to essentially prove and market new Android features.
My limited understanding of the matter is that their batteries are overpriced and nothing special compared to alternatives.
The real game changer that seems to be coming down the pipeline is the solid state battery Toyota has been teasing. If they manage to bring that to market while holding important patents on the technology it's basically game over for other kinds of battery for EVs.
Toyota has been teasing this for years now. It's a bit like fusion energy at this point, always on the brink of a revolution that never comes.