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Trump marginally ahead of Harris in US national polls, but Harris improves from Biden’s polls.
(theconversation.com)
this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2024
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Harris stable at 38% (odds of winning, not portion of votes) on polymarket.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election
What the shit is polymarket?
It's a prediction market using cryptocurrency. Look at predictit.net for a more traditional one.
Oh so it's a useless thing for dupes and idiots okay. Thanks.
Shrug, it's a way to bet on election outcomes. No different from betting on football or the stock market. The betting lines really do tell you something about the underlying reality, since if you are sure the true odds are different, they give you a way to turn that knowledge into an expectation of cash. I don't participate myself, but you could interpret that as a weak belief that the current odds are about right.
That particular one comes with the stench of crypto but the original one (Iowa Electronic Markets) didn't have that. Of course I'd expect the offered odds at all those things to be the same, or else there is arbitrage available.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets
Added: I just found this and it is pretty good:
https://mickbransfield.com/2024/01/18/the-last-25-years-of-the-iowa-electronic-markets/
The "accuracy" section claims that from 1988 to 2008, the IEM outperformed polls. It doesn't say about post-2008 so maybe there is more gaming of the markets now.