this post was submitted on 07 Aug 2024
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LLMs will not give us AGI. This is obvious to anyone who knows how they work.
I haven't assumed that those who believe AGI will, at some point, come to be necessarily think that LLMs is exactly the tech which will get us there. Just that AGI is likely to happen because they don't think there's anything super special about the meat in our heads that makes intelligence possible and it should be able to be reproduced in other mediums.
I have been trying to convince my friend for weeks now. Not 24/7 of course. I try to explain how it works and we need at least another conceptually new method, this will never cut it. He says, "nobody could have predicted any of this, so you cannot be sure. You see, ChatGPT will take all the jobs in a couple of years."