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I’m also considering getting a full electric car, but have a little range anxiety mixed with a general feeling that the improvements over the next couple years will make current electric cars obsolete, so I am following along with this thread!
This is my problem with any new car. Practically every new car (even ICEVs) is just a smart phone on wheels now. It’s not like in the ‘90s - ‘00s when you could still legit buy a car from the ‘70s and daily drive it and repair it in your own drive way for cheap (most people in the 50s - 80s were capable of basic tune ups, etc).
My concern is that at some point the parts won’t be made anymore. Or if the LCD command console gets cracked or something your car’s totaled. I mean, people used to own cars for at least ten years, twenty years wasn’t uncommon. Do you think a 2025 XYZ is going to be on the road in ten years- twenty years? What’s the resale value on that / who’s going to buy a twenty year old phone on wheels?
As much as people believe EVs are better for the environment, aren’t they increasing the rate at which a vehicle ends up in landfill? I hope recycling is part of the car’s lifecycle.
At the same time though, I have to acknowledge that, without an ICE, EVs have far fewer points of failure. There’s a potential for them to be on the road much longer. I just don’t see that happening due to consumer demand. Even if you’re able to update the software and swap out worn out parts, is that enough to keep the car on the road as long as or longer than an ICEV? What happens when technology changes and they find better batteries or charging methods? How much do you have to invest in the phone on wheels to keep it on the road?
A modern car is far more reliable than anything from the 1970s or before. Sure you could repair those older cars, but also you had to repair those older cars. I'm old enough to remember people bragging about getting 100k miles on a car - they had to check the oil every day, and most days add more. Today a ICE will go 300k miles with minimal maintenance, checking oil is not a common thing for people to do.
I'm not arguing that. My argument is actually because cars are far more reliable, doesn't that decrease their resale value as more and more modern convinces are added to newer cars?
You've got a window of less than ten years on a modern car where then the technology in it is so old that few people would consider purchasing it to keep it for another five - ten years.
For example, my mom just bought a '24 Subaru with a huge touch screen in it. Will it keep working in ten years? Probably. Will anyone want to buy that phone on wheels in ten years? Not likely. I just bought a 2013 Mini Cooper. It "has bluetooth" but it's strictly for (shitty sounding) phone calls and not audio streaming. I'm one of few people who's okay with this because I'll only drive 1500 miles a year.
Whereas a 25 year old car in 1998 was, aside from your accurate claim about reliability, perfectly fine as a daily driver. If you can find one and are capable of proper maintenance, you could still drive a 1960s car today. But because modern consumer tastes expect advancements in vehicles the same as they expect them in phones, I just don't see used cars living as long as older cars have.
So, it's not so much about the ability for a vehicle to remain on the road but consumer choice.
1500 miles a year... I do that in two weeks.
I absolutely would drive an ev if I could afford it, but I have a few years to go before my current car is worth a trade... and where I live I have no ability to charge at home, which is the one thing that would save me a lot of money.