It would take a strong defeat (e.g. loss of occupied territories not only in Ukraine, but also Georgia, Moldova and loss of Belarus). They are unfortunately really petty and it would piss them off to no end if our countries became successful and independent.

Perhaps I am too biased against russians, but some sort of global ostracization would be helpful. Not allowing russian citizens into EU, US, Australia.

And most importantly a prolonged period of economic decline.

Yeah, Navalniy and his crew have zero influence inside the country and they are not really looking to do anything beyond YT videos. They don't really want to fight. They are malicious grifters that at best run an online discussion community for somewhat liberal leaning russians.

Their pride stems from imperialism and "being feared". They are no where near recognizing that they have the capability to build a better world for themselves. Not to mention they just can't stop themselves from digging a deeper hole, that exponentially increases the cost of action.