Canada

The polling suggests that the CPC is capturing young, angry, and terminally online voters same as Trump did. So that's a bit concerning.

I'm from the east, but have some in-laws from Alberta. Not farmers though, people with family in the oil industry. They seem to 100% support Pollievre and went from Trudeau is evil to Carney is evil before they knew anything about him. So the CPC will probably still do ok in Alberta.

There's also people who've read the newspaper every day of their lives and now that newspaper is owned by postmedia. They tend to hate every prominent Liberal, wonder why?

But yeah Pollievre lost a lot of support in the eastern part of the country. Hearing about the security clearance stuff from family members unprompted, and people are very suspicious of a guy that doesn't want to even look at the intel about who in his party may be a foreign asset.

Given all of the factors of American oil industry influence, American postmedia influence and American social media influence, I think it will be close.