this post was submitted on 30 Mar 2025
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Russia can't even take over Ukraine and they'll take on entire NATO? Even if we exclude USA from it there is just no chance. Only if dumbass Trump collaborates with Russia to attack NATO together. That would be WW3 then...
They're already quite successful in hybrid warfare against NATO and EU.
Probing NATO's security guarantees doesn't mean taking it on fully. It means testing out how far you can go without them fully committing with military.
There’s this old saying that goes something like: "The European Airforce could beat Russia any day of the week - as long as they don’t have to do it the next week as well."
Meaning, the most pressing problem are our ammunition stockpiles. If you research that you’ll quickly see how bad the situation is in the EU currently. The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.
Then there’s also the issue of lacking infrastructure, the absence of a unified command structure in Europe and with the withdrawal of the US, also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).
You should read these claims with the same amount of nuance you use on claims like "Russia runs out of tanks/missiles/shells".
What they mean is "we can sustain a full-on, large scale offensive at optimal supply for two weeks, before we need to scale to a lower operational pace and stockpile material for our individual operations."
No military ever has enough, Russia "ran out" a few days into their offense, and yet they've been fighting for years.
Eh, NATO high command exists just fine. Sure, it would be headed by the 2nd in command, but it works.
Yeah, Europe has a terrifying lack of enablers, but the reason for that is, apart from intelligence, is that European militaries aren't prepared for, or want to be prepared for, large scale offensive power projection away from home.
You can drive a truck from Gibraltar to Talin in Estonia in 48 hours. A train takes slightly longer, though I imagine clearing the railways is a lot easier under martial law.
Europe only has one good wing of tanker/transport planes, but we have hundreds and hundreds of airfields, and you don't need much mid-air refueling in a defensive war where everyone has capital cities in easy jet range.
The lack of airborne radar and satellites is MUCH worse for Europe than any other enablers.
Using NATO infrastructure would presumably invite US to the table, which is probably not desirable, even today.
Idk man, we (as in NATO nations, except the US) ran out of ammunition during the air campaign against Libya. And that lasted mere days without any significant enemy pushback. There simply are no significant (deep) depots of ammunitions stockpiled here. Sure, we could probably start throwing helmets at the Russians after a week or so.
Most of the NATO command structure is incredibly US centric though, it doesn’t end with the SACEUR. It's kind of unsettling considering our current relation with the US.
Regarding your last paragraph, I agree that airborne radar and satellite data are the most crucial factors we are lacking without the US.
Russia has the same problem as the same problem has the US, but supercharged it. They made the military the backbone of the economy and main social safety net, so they need to be in a permanent state of conflict to justify it.
That’s not at all comparable to the American economy, wtf dude.
To different scales it is. The US has been using the armed forces as an employer of last resort, and defense factories are the only thing keeping some regions afloat. Of course the US economy is significantly more developed outside of the military, but if the US were to scale back its military there would be transversal cracks all over the economy and society.