this post was submitted on 25 May 2025
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They're not what I think of as a "Key Company" for anything.
That would require them to be irreplaceable in some aspect, on any reasonable timeline. But if they disappeared tomorrow, AMD would be able to step in and cover every use people had for Nvidia products.
(Accept maybe the Nvidia Shield. But Nvidia seems to have largely quit that anyway)
The closest thing they have to irreplaceable is CUDA. But AMD has been making leaps and bounds improving their GPU software. It would take the market maybe 6mo, or a year. But it would adjust without much trouble.
They are still largely shitting the bed here. Their ROCm installer won't run on Ubuntu 25.04 last time I checked, and the 9070xt won't work on OSs that ROCm DOES support because the kernel and graphics stack is too old.
ROCm has been "almost ready" to be a drop-in replacement for CUDA for almost a decade. I feel like it literally would take nvidia ceasing to exist to give them the critical mass to push it over the finish line
Nvidia ceasing to exist is exactly what I'm talking about here.
When people have no choice they'd make ROCm work. It'll take some extra effort, but it would get the job done just fine.