His top 7:
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Raptors
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Heat
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Knicks
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76ers
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Cavs
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Bucks
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Celtics
The top of the Eastern Conference also doubles as the top of the NBA, at least until further notice.
It’s a strange thing to say when three of the past four championships were won by the other conference. However, the East had the three best regular-season records and the four best point differentials last season and, on paper, has by far the two best teams heading into the season. Either Boston or Milwaukee has been in the last seven Eastern Conference finals, and they had the two best 2022-23 regular-season records. After both clubs loaded up even further in the offseason, it looks like a two-team race at the top.
Alas, that quality trails off quickly. Miami, winner of the conference in two of the past four seasons (and nearly a third), lost key pieces and whiffed on Damian Lillard, leaving the Heat a step behind their rivals. Philadelphia is in similar straits while it plays out James Harden’s trade demand, which thus far has been a rerun of the Ben Simmons saga that brought Harden to Philly in the first place. Cleveland, and its talented core quartet, merits watching, but must prove it isn’t just a regular-season paper tiger. The Knicks are deep and fun, but lack star power. The Raptors similarly seem at least one player away from being anything threatening.
Counterpoint - The Heat were a 34% 3-point shooting team in the regular season, and then shot 45% from deep in their series against Milwaukee and Boston. That's it. That's why they won those series. It happens, tip of the cap, but it's an anomaly.
To put it into perspective how insane shooting mid-40's in a series is - The Warriors 3P% in their NBA Finals wins - 37% vs Boston, and 38%, 38%, and 36% in the 3 Cleveland series.
The Heat realistically were what they were all year - a solid but unspectacular team. And then they shot the 3-ball at an EXTREME aberration in two series against better teams.
The Heat will be in the mix of playoff teams and they're totally capable of beating a Knicks or Cavs caliber team. But I think expecting a deep playoff run again is just fear of the boogeyman more than anything.
Maybe, but I'm still trusting them over the Cavs, Knicks, and Sixers. Heat didn't shoot well against the Knicks, but beat them relatively easily and the Knicks beat the Cavs relatively easily.
That's Celtics PTSD talking. The Heat weren't real contenders last year and they're less this year.
That doesn’t negate his knicks point. Their worst shooting series they still handled business against a 4/5 seed. It wasnt just their hot shooting
I don’t care, I’m scared of the boogeyman
The Heat had outlier-y bad shooting luck in the regular season on offense and defense, the odds of that happening again are extremely low.