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One of the founders of DeepMind thinks there's a 50% probability there will be AGI by 2028.
(www.dwarkeshpatel.com)
this post was submitted on 29 Oct 2023
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I know 50% is better than say 5%... but whenever I see 50% all I think of is a coin flip, either it will or won't happen. Still, interesting times.
I don't feel comfortable with a potentially existential risk being a coin flip....