Futurology

This is a fascinating read. It was interesting to hear him say that all of the current problems with factuality and hallucinations are solvable, and he sees the route to doing that.

He was less convincing in discussing how to constrain the power of an AGI that is smarter than us. His solution is to make sure it understands ethics. That idea has lots of weaknesses, and the guy interviewing pressed him on that a few times, and he seemed to fudge his responses.

It's interesting to look at people's past predictions. He said he predicted the 2028 date for AGI back in 2008. Not only was he able to say it hasn't changed, but he was also able to point out everything he expected has gone to schedule in the 2008-2023 timeframe. It makes that 2028 prediction more credible.

I know 50% is better than say 5%... but whenever I see 50% all I think of is a coin flip, either it will or won't happen. Still, interesting times.

Apparently they’re (idk if it’s deepmind specifically) releasing models that are 100x more powerful than gpt 4 in the summer next year? Has anyone heard anything wbout that?

either way it'll happen way sooner than most people think