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And I'm sure the money will be so useful it if you win your bet in the end on climate collapse by 2030.
this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2025
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A Boring Dystopia
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Yeah my comment is meandering a bit. Maybe a more succinct way would be to say: this so called market is a private firm and it's in their own interest to not divulge the whole picture.
You're absolutely right about complex systems always leaking info through unintended sidechannels, but I would argue that is information not available to everyone on the "market" at the same time, thus skewing the market (and again benefitting the owners of the market more than anyone).
Could you give an example? Do you mean they will fail to report or falsify the real prices, or something else? I'll admit I like the idea of more decentralized betting markets (wish Augur had gotten big instead of platforms like Polymarket), but something that egregious seems like it would be tough to get away with without people noticing.