this post was submitted on 25 Dec 2025
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The countries that hit the brick wall fastest during the Arab Spring were - curiously - the ones where the US had the biggest influence. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Iraq... all saw the movement flatline in a matter of weeks. Egypt and Turkiye saw some early movement and even a successful turn of government, but immediately boomeranged back to military dictatorship when too many Arab Nationalists started gaining steam. Gaza and the West Bank had a moment, only for the Israelis to freak out and start killing people for mentioning the Nakba.
Libya, Syria, and Iran saw real instability, though. The Qaddafi government came crashing down, with its ex-leader dying to sodemy by razor blades. Assad put down his revolt with horrible violence per family tradition, buying himself another ten years of dictatorship. Liberal Iranians once again became cannon fodder for the counter-revolution, while Americans were prompted to liberate the country in the same way we'd liberated its Saddem-Era neighbor.
None of these stories ended well, because none began with an eye towards actual democratic liberalization. The Arab Spring was a beautiful narrative spun atop a horrifying region wide civil war for control of... oil.