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This is going to spiral out of control. The whole Middle East is going to suffer from this. How is Russia going to react? What are the domestic repercussions going to be during an election year?
No love for the Ayatollah's regime but this is a disaster. This admin has such limited forethought they will make the Bush admin look like geniuses in retrospect
Definitely. From what I've read, the CIA and military brass advised against this move because someone more aligned with the IRGC could be installed. Who knows what that will look like, but the Khamenei government was offering to honor the 2015 nuclear agreement. Next regime probably won't be so cooperative.
Also wondering how this will change the plans and behavior of other big global players like China and India in the longer term. Preamble to WW3 or just a new era of heightened millitarism worldwide?
Especially with China. From what I've seen, they have advanced weaponry that rivals the USA/Israel along with a security agreement with Iran. Could be the beginnings of a new proxy war in the middle east. IRGC aligned proxy groups will also ramp up attacks in the region. No bueno all the way around.
Anyone checked on Taiwan?
WW3 started when Putin invaded Ukraine the second time.
Long term, no idea. But Putin thrives on creating chaos, and much of his international strategy involves taking stable democracies and doing everything in his power to destabilize them. Just today a report came out in regard to likely Russian interference in Denmark's upcoming elections, but check out the sub-header:
Putin did it in the UK with Brexit, he's done it (and is still doing it) here in the US, and now he's taking it further. Don't think for two seconds that Putin is threatened by this at all.
I guess Ukraine won't have to worry about as many Shaheds going their way?
Weren't they being produced in Russia now?
I don't honestly know.
Speaking of which . . . (for the younger ones among us who might not remember what a shitshow it was)
That's the objective.
It is out of control. But Russia seems occupied with occupying elsewhere, what could their reaction still be?
Well as far as concrete actions I'm not sure what they will do. But I do know Russia is certainly a big fan of taking advantage of chaos, and this strike works in Russia's favor by helping delegitimize international order and rule of law even more, because the US (and Israel) acting unilateraly, illegally, and hypocritically weakens their ability to meaningfully call out Russia for similar behaviors later on.
Even if they are tied up now in Ukraine this makes it easier for them to act with less constraint when they see fit (yes I know, they have been acting without constraint already but they can always get worse)
All the average American cares about is, yay war. This could precipitate a red wave.