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this post was submitted on 25 Apr 2026
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How can Russia believe to win the necessary wars? People suggest that Russia can win the propaganda war in the EU to take enough countries out of the EU and then have no opposition when conquering the Baltics. But buying ads cannot beat owning the algorithm.
The strategic benefit of the Baltics for Russia is that defending is easier. It doesn't make sense to start a war to get them.
Russia doesn't oppose the EU with article 42. I think it's actually Nato and the influence of the US that they don't want.
If there is no western European support (because for example Germany is ruled by the AfD, France by the FN and the UK by Reform... not exactly an unrealistic scenario right now, and the "algorithm" is helping them with that) then they can win, or at the very least pressure these smaller states to become vassals like Belarus is right now.
But even if you personally disagree that this is a realistic scenario, it doesn't change the fact that the large majority of the eastern European states believe so and thus will prevent any attempts at reconciliation with Russia on EU level.
The US control the social networks. That's not my personal preference but a fact.
If they believe that soon the EU won't protect them they would seek reconciliation immediately. They can only be aggressive towards Russia because they expect Russia to lose and to be dismantled.
And the US is currently (intentionally or not) helping Russia in this information warfare against western European liberal governments.
And you are mixing up who is aggressive against whom. The eastern European states pose very little threat for Russia but feel (justified or not) massively threatened by them.
I mean news like
With their history I understand why they want Russia's power to be dismantled but it only makes sense to openly call for it if they don't expect to fight Russia on their own in 5 years. Otherwise it would be better to try to avoid the war by trying to create peaceful relations before the protection runs out.
All I want to say with this is that Russia has not that much of an influence on the media.
The West uses the extreme right parties to split the workers so that neoliberal policies can be implemented.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory
We live in times of information warfare. That means that everything can be deception. As long as the billionaires don't push for an impeachment I am sure that Trump is deception and with him everything that looks like successful Russian influence.
In South America we can see the US influence. Why should it be any different in Europe? At least in Germany we have a chancellor who was paid by an American company for years.
Russia can't want a Europe that is controlled by the US. To me, the Russian support for the opposition looks not so much like an attempt to destroy Europe but as an attempt to get the US out.
Again, have the US out for what? And why would Lithuania try to appease the agressor preemtively when it is far from certain that Russia will succeed in their campaign to destabilize the EU (which is currently supported by the US).
The real fear the Russian government has is that some of their remaining imperial holdings also decide that enough is enough. So by attacking Ukraine and trying to cow the baltic states into submission, they are trying to frighten anyone that might see these states as positive examples how former soviet states can be much freer than they themselves are under Russian domination.
That's why I think that the Russian influence on social networks is not big.
I think so, too. The question is which fate they can expect from joining the American free market. If they end up homeless without healthcare like poor American citizens then their freedom will be a trap. I think that the US cannot afford to have countries with better healthcare and housing in their sphere of influence in the long run. Germany is starting to discuss no treatment for unemployed.
But there is also the US problem of being overtaken by China. I think that problem can only be solved with a war. Russia would be involved. So some geostrategic considerations should influence Russia, too.
The typical Russian citizen living in the imperial holdings doesn't aspire to US free market style conditions, but they can see on social media and from personal connections / travels that other often even Russian speaking people living in the Baltic states and (pre-war) Ukraine enjoy significantly more personal freedom and often also higher quality of life.
This is a direct practical refutation of the dominant propaganda narrative of the Russian government that if anything changes it will only change for the worse.
How people in the US or even western Europe live is entirely irrelevant to this perception.
There is no point in asking what ifs, and the EU is certainly not trying to emulate the US even though it does have its own problems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lys%C3%A9e_Treaty
The section called 'Controversy'. Have we managed to become independent?
That's why Russia must be worried. People see the material improvement but don't consider the long-term perspective.