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@MattR @Anonymaus
I don't think anyone seriously believe that the US would come to any kind of help, should Putin go after an European country, but currently it is unknown if the rest of the Republican party and the US military would stand by and just leave it at that.
As such, Putin cannot be entirely sure that he would have free roam as far as the US is concerned, and that is a better position to be in for Europe at the moment.
However much we like to think that we can take on Putin on our own, there are still glaring holes in our defense that needs to be addressed before we can hold down the fort for certain without any help from the US.
Every day that Putin is left wondering is a day where Europe can expand its military capabilities with non-US weapon systems, and we need as many of those days before the inevitable break-up as possible.
Im sure there are a lot of deals and agreements in place with other countries from earlier administrations, something like "you give us military support, in exchange we give you resources, buy US bonds or trade our oil in USD". As far as i remember Europe adopted some of the US copyright law for the internet after ~~hollywood~~ the US administration pushed for it, so if you host pirated US movies in europe you can be sent to an US jail for that. I a lot of those deals would be canceled by the other states if it turns out that the US does not hold up their part of the deal.
is it unknown? what makes you think any of them would go agaist the pedo king or that they could stop him?
I don't thik Russia has any war capabilities left over to fight a thumb wrestling match, let alone take on all of Europe
@Jhex
There are decent people left in the US, but my main point is, that it IS unknown - the second you tell the US to fuck off, the unknown part goes away.
As for Russia, only a fool would write off a nation with a one million man strong army. Yes, they have had huge losses and yes, their economy is in shambles, but they are still fighting against an almost equally large army in Ukraine and almost having a stalemate.
I don't think Putin would take on all of Europe, but I do think that he could decide to test the European resolve by taking on one or more of the Baltic countries. If he succeed, they will be relatively easy to defend (note the "relatively"), and give him better access to the Baltic Sea.
Do I think it would be suicide to take on a Finnish neighbor after they joined NATO? Absolutely. Do I think that Putin could be insane enough to try? Absolutely too.
Sorry man (or woman), but thinking the USA will correct on a dime today, specially against Russia, is completely wishful thinking.
Not writing them off, and thanks for the back handed insult, but again, evidence shows they have been utterly unable to take control of Ukraine... but you'd have us believe that they can take on Ukraine and all of Europe?
Here you are literally playing to believe what you want: on one hand the USA may turn good again somehow despite all evidence to the contrary... at the same time, we all must fear Russia, despite all evidence to the contrary again
Like they succeeded in Ukraine? a much weaker enemy?
@Jhex
It does not matter what you and I *think* - as long as Putin does not *know*, the possibility of the US pivoting is still in play. That is my point.
At no point have I made the argument that Russia can take on Ukraine and all of Europe - that is your argument, not mine.
I have made the argument that I think he could be insane enough to test European resolve and commitment by taking on one of the Baltic countries. I stand by that.
Here is the thing: Look to Italy and Spain. They are not in any way, shape or form looking for a fight with Russia, and if Putin can put a wedge in between them and the countries that are ready to defend the Baltic countries, the losses may be worth it. A divided Europe would make his life a lot easier, since that division could easily be extended to the support for Ukraine.
As for the military force of Ukraine, there is no country in Europe that has a stronger, better trained, more battle hardened military force than Ukraine right now. They *were* much weaker at the beginning of the war, but the Russians underestimated them even then, and made a major mess of their invasion. I see no reason to think that they would be equally stupid again.
If Russia decided to throw 100000 men with pitchforks against a Baltic country, they would probably take it, simply by being more men.
Correct, but if you agree this is not possible them we know Russia won't be able to attack Europe in any significant fashion, no?
Yes, after years of the current fight against Russia... Ukraine was not in this battle-hardened shape when the conflict started which actually implies the opposite point you are trying to make. Right now, after the example Russia set with Ukraine, most European countries would be much better prepared than Ukraine was a few years ago (plus they will definitely have Ukraine ready to whisper any Russian weak spot they have uncovered)
Russia or the rest of Europe? If you are talking about Russia, this makes no sense as you'd seem to imply they have a much stronger military might available right now to really hurt a Baltic or European country, yet they are happy being beaten by Ukraine on a daily basis?
Again, and they are choosing NOT to do this against Ukraine because losing is a better option?!