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I did, did you?
Since you're apparently going off vibes and not actual math or history, here's a short breakdown for you.
The current House makeup is 217 to 212 (plus 1 independent and 5 vacancies). That's a 3-seat advantage for the Republicans.
The historical average of a party flipping midterm seats is 27, with that number being higher for less popular presidents.
In the 2010 midterms the Republicans picked up 63 seats. This was right after a recession with an Obama approval rating in the mid-40s. Trump's approval rating is currently around 36% and the economy isn't doing well right now either.
Redistricting in the South is underway with some having been finalized and some very much still up in the air. If all those hold for Republicans and - very importantly - if all those new districts vote R, that nets the GOP between 8 and 12 seats.
In an average midterm election, that wouldn't be enough to overcome the expected flip; that's without any sort of blue wave. But there most certainly will be, as it's already underway.
Democrats have flipped 30 state-level seats since 2024 and many more local ones, in some places by as many as 30 points. They have over performed by 4.5 points on average and are D+6 on a generic ballot.
So while this race to the bottom in gerrymandering is not ideal and it sucks not to gain those seats in VA, this really isn't anything to get worked up over. It doesn't mean give up but it doesn't mean not to bust your ass either.
You need to add in Texas and Kentucky.. now because of the Supreme Court decision all southern states are back on the table.
Thats a conclusion for before the SC decision this week. Those states are going to go even further with regards to gerrymandering.
I think thats a hell of a thing to say considering it wasn't until California and Virginia took up the process that we were even considering the Democrats would take the house.
Sure, and Democratic approval is basically the same. Its not like Dems are hitting it out of the park, so we can't rely on their "popularity" to get us any where.
I genuinely think this is a "break glass, pull handle" week as far as redistricting and voting rights are concerned going into this November. The panorama of decisions is that basically Republicans are going to be allowed to gerrymander to all fuck, and Democrats won't be allowed to do anything. That as a structural barrier is enough to give us pause as to whether or not its even possible for Dem's to take the house.
No that 8 to 12 seats includes all those states, finalized and not: 1 in LA, 1 in MS, 4 in FL, 1 in AL, 1 in SC, 1 in TN, and 2 maybe 3 in VA. That's 11 or 12.
Kentucky is not redistricting but that would only be 1 more if they did.
And again that's assuming they all vote R. Gerrymandering creates more districts at the expense of making them weaker, which is precisely why Kentucky GOP doesn't want to.
The House has been likely to flip Dem since the beginning of 2025, before all this redistricting started. This Congress began with a 3-seat Republican majority, 220-215. That is not a big enough margin to overcome the expected flip of an average midterm cycle of 27 seats.