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Why do other teams keep trading the Celtics good players for terrible value? (alien.top)

submitted 2 years ago by JeffKaplanIsDaddy@alien.top to c/nba@nba.space

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Year after year they somehow retool around Tatum and Brown or other stars and other teams help them. This year it was Porzingis and Jrue for Smart (injured), Brogdon (injured), Rob Williams (out for year), and a few first rounders that will be worth dust. Last year, they got Brogdon for Nesmith and a first rounder, there’s the Cavs giving them Kyrie for a busted IT and the Nets pick, the Spurs gifting them Derrick White for dirt cheap value of Langford, Josh Richardson, a late as hell first rounder, and a 2028 swap, Suns giving them Isaiah Thomas for a first rounder. Not really understanding why teams keep doing bad business with this franchise

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[–] TheCodeSamurai@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I think there's three major things.

First is selling high. The Smart trade was cold, same with Timelord. Brad Stevens is very clearly unafraid to look at the players he drafted and evaluate them, and I think being really early to do that instead of late does wonders for trade value. I think a lot of Celtics fans saw Smart's regression from his DPOY year due to wear and being on the wrong side of the aging curve, but I don't think many FOs would have been so willing to trade their longest-tenured player and someone who means a lot to the franchise. By the time everyone's saying someone should be traded, it's too late: the best trades in hindsight are controversial at the time. I certainly hope that's true for these, and I trust Brad Stevens to know these guys better than anyone.

The other thing to note is that the Celtics FO clearly looks at a lot of analytics. Derrick White wasn't making too many waves at the deadline when we got him, but he had really good analytics behind him. Same with KP and Jrue, although obviously those players are more well-known. I don't know if the Celtics just trust their numbers more than other teams or have internal metrics that track more closely with the public ones, but if you want to know how the Celtics are gonna value players EPM or RAPM is a pretty good proxy.

The third thing is the win-win nature of a fair bit of these trades, even with some injuries. Nesmith and a pick for Brogdon is pretty reasonable. The Pacers are doing great letting Halliburton conduct the orchestra and can use Nesmith: they're also young enough to keep taking swings on draft prospects that can develop. Portland doesn't really need Jrue, but they can afford to have Timelord sit a season. Same with the Wizards trying to lose and not wanting to pay KP. I think the Celtics get an advantage by still having a lot of assets and being able to swoop in, but I think Timelord has solid future DPOY chances and Smart will do well in Memphis.

The only thing I find a little puzzling is how much value the Celtics seem to get out of their picks. Is the expected value of a Boston pick even a player who gets a roster spot? Unlike older teams I have a hard time believing Tatum is not playing heavy minutes in future seasons, and I just can't imagine the team drafting higher than 20 in the next couple of years.