That 'momentum' is voter apathy starting since Harris moved her campaign to the right to court the ever elusive centrist voters. Imagine the lead if she doubled down on Walz' popular policies instead of Biden's unpopular policies.
this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2024
2 points (53.8% liked)
politics
19050 readers
5176 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Yes, Trump appears to have momentum, but it also appears to be a phantom momentum driven by right leaning polling organizations.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-hungry-harris-campaign-early?utm_source=publication-search
"I now count 27 Republican or right-aligned entities in the polling averages:
American Greatness, Daily Mail, co/efficent, Cygnal, Echelon, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Mitchell Communications, Napolitan Institute, Noble Predictive, On Message, Orbital Digital, Public Opinion Strategies, Quantus, Rasmussen, Redfield & Wilton, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, TIPP, Victory Insights, Wall Street Journal.
In September 12 of the 24 polls of North Carolina were conducted by red wave pollsters. Check out the last 4 polls released in PA on 538. All are red wavers."
This is part of the plan, to induce doubt. "We couldn't possibly have lost a fair election! We were ahead!"
Hopefully.
He makes a pretty convincing case for both the idea that "momentum" is kind of meaningless, but also that Trump slowly gaining for the last 30 days is not. Part of what pushed it over the line (Silver is quick to point out that 49.8 and 50.2 is basically meaningless like the difference between a 49th and 50th birthday; we like round numbers) is the Fox News poll.
As he demonstrates, there is no detectable right-wing bias in Fox News polling despite the obvious bias of their news reporting. I can't speak to the others, but I'm not ready to dismiss all polls based on the political identification of the organization, if the polling is of high quality.
My gut tells me Trump is going to pull this out somehow. But, then again, my gut literally has shit for brains.
My personal opinion is that it's going to be far closer than anyone is really comfortable with.
I mean, look at 2020... BOTH candidates got more votes than any other candidate in history. 74 million people out of 330 million voted for Trump. 22.4% of the entire population went "Yeah, he looks good!"
What makes me think Trump will lose again is the issue of women's rights/abortion.
I don’t think the people most affected by that are the ones answering poll questions, so I don't think their thoughts are being fully represented in the polls.
God I hope so, but Trump's continued support, specifically with white women, the largest demographic, is just BAFFLING to me.
I do see some older middle-aged women Trump supporters here, but most of the Trump supporters I see are the guys with the flags on their trucks and stuff.
Hey @jordanlund@lemmy.world, you seem like someone that might have a good perspective on a question I have. While I've always noticed a habit of people to down vote news they don't like on Lemmy, I feel as though there has been a lot more of this occurring in the last, say, two weeks around election news.
Anything that seems to indicate bad news for Harris or is critical of democrats tends to get rapidly buried, often with little engagement. I worry this is symptomatic of a broader denialism on the left/Harris wing, and that it might lead to another election where people are caught by surprise by something that was a very plausible possibility the whole time.
Since you see a lot more posts than I do week in and week out, does that phenomenon seem to be intensifying over the last week or two, or have I just been noticing it more and it's always been happening?
Oh, it's been going on long before now. Negative news about Biden and Biden polling was being buried before, that didn't really stop until his train wreck of a debate performance.
The news source of this post could not be identified. Please check the source yourself. Media Bias Fact Check | bot support