this post was submitted on 11 Jan 2025
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Let's assume that in 10 years, AI has advanced absurdly, insanely fast, and is now capable of doing everything a Senior SWE can do. It can program in 15 different languages, 95% accuracy with almost no mistakes, can create entire applications in minutes, and no more engineers or SWEs are needed.... What will all the devs do? Do they just become homeless? Transition to medical field, nursing? Become tradespeople like plumbers, HVAC?

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[–] deathmetal27@lemmy.world 78 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

You seem like someone who hasn't really worked in software development.

Software engineering does not simply mean coding. A production grade software application goes through analysis, design, implementation (where coding happens), testing (several phases), release and maintenance. Not to mention infrastructure concerns (storage, databases, microservices, service orchestration, middleware, etc). The whole process is too nuanced and complex to conclude that AI would make the whole career obsolete. It might shake up some areas of software engineering but only a small part of it.

You'll still need people to verify that the AI generated application actually behaves as per the business logic, runs optimally with the hardware you have and scales as your business grows. Which means engineers for testing and reviewing the generated code plus engineers to setup the infrastructure where the application will run.

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[–] Kaboom@reddthat.com 49 points 2 weeks ago (11 children)

That will never happen, or at least with how ai currently works. It's basically a glorified autocorrect, it uses the same technology underneath.

But presuming it does, yes. We will have to go to another industry, like AI prompting. Coding is a tiny part of professional software development.

[–] fadhl3y@lemmy.world 23 points 2 weeks ago

Yes, exactly this.

When compilers came along, some people honestly thought it would dumb down programming so much that anyone could do it.

When high level programming languages came along, they rejoiced again - now finally anyone can make software.

When Intellisense meat you no longer had to remember variable names, write your own imports and could guess how most libraries work, the bells rang out once again in celebration.

And now we have AI, it's cool but really just another step like all those steps before. For me, it's a replacement for the documentation I never read anyway. I can ask an AI a stupid question rather than bothering a human developer.

These days it's my job to manage a small team of developers - when I ask them why they wrote a stupid thing that makes no sense, 90% of the time, the answer is that an AI wrote it for them.

[–] Enoril@jlai.lu 4 points 2 weeks ago

Glorified autocorrect... YES! It’s a really good analogy that i will use to temper the expectation of my boss. Also: AI hallucination is just a fancy way to say ’it’s a wrong answer’.

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[–] hperrin@lemmy.ca 38 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

You have to understand what software can do, how to design it, and how it should interact with other systems in order to write software and not just code, and AI can’t do that. If you tell it to make you A, and what you really want is B, you’ll never get what you want.

Only about 10-20 percent of my job as a software engineer is writing code. AI can be really amazing at writing code, but unless it can do the other 80-90% of my job without me, I’ll be safe.

Now, whether middle and upper management will know this is an entirely different question. A lot of them think that lines of code written is a good measure of productivity, when in fact it’s often the opposite.

I foresee there being a big struggle for management to come to grips with the fact that AI is better suited at their job than ours.

[–] NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 21 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (2 children)

My best days as a software dev are negative line days.

[–] futatorius@lemm.ee 5 points 2 weeks ago

NegaSLOCS are the best SLOCS.

[–] tehciolo@lemm.ee 4 points 2 weeks ago

Hear, hear!

[–] lemmydividebyzero@reddthat.com 34 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

If it is able to replace software devs, it's probably able to replace 95% of the jobs that require mainly using your brain.

[–] DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social 8 points 2 weeks ago

Yeah it's being applied to software devs right now but it's already capable of replacing nearly every manager/supervisor in existence.

It can make schedules, direct tasks based on inventory, and balance a budget. Have a human backup available on call to fix hallucinations and you're golden.

[–] mjhelto@lemm.ee 24 points 2 weeks ago

They're just gonna sit around and wait a few months until they are begged to come back and can demand more compensation. The current generative AI, which is not general AI, will not be able to replace high functioning jobs. Eventually, a lot of those software engineers will be asked back and get much more for their services.

[–] atrielienz@lemmy.world 22 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

The plan is to rehire them back temporarily to babysit the AI and fix all the AI generated crap. Then realize it was cheaper to actually just have the devs make code. Then hire them back at a reduced rate on a more permanent basis with the understanding that they believe the code will still be partially generated by AI and cleaned up by the same people and they aren't paying top tier for third hand AI slop.

[–] FartsWithAnAccent@fedia.io 11 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

They've been doing the same thing in IT for decades, just replace AI with outsourcing.

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[–] hendrik@palaver.p3x.de 17 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (4 children)

Well if it can replace senior software engineers... Wouldn't it also be able to do almost all of the other jobs? Or are you referring to some specific future where AI advances massively, but robotics does not and handymen are still safe?

I'd say if all humans are unemployed, society would change massively. We can't really tell how that'd work. But if machines / AI do all jobs, get food on the table... I don't really know what other people would be doing. I think I'd relax and pursue a few hobbies and interests. Or it'd be some dystopia where humankind is oppressed by the machines and I'd fight for the resistance.

But regardless... In a world like that, money wouldn't work the way it does now. Neither would salaries for labor mean anything.

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[–] clutchtwopointzero@lemmy.world 15 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Coding is just a part of the overall "programming" problem. Most problematic areas are in translating what the customer wants into code (requirements analysis), modifying code to overcome specific constraints, integration, etc and etc

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[–] anus@lemmy.world 15 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

There are a lot of dumb takes here in the comments

Developer displacement works the same way it does for any other technology

The problem is not that the job is eliminated but that fewer are needed per unit of output

My startup only has 4 engineers because we don't need 5

This trend will continue until the SV hiring bubble bursts

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[–] RagingSnarkasm@lemmy.world 13 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Spend their days (and some nights) tweaking and refining AI prompts to get the stupid thing to generate the software that the dumbass product manager wants and the user does not.

You know....

Pretty much the same thing they do now.

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[–] Anissem@lemmy.ml 13 points 2 weeks ago

I was going to learn how to give a really good handjob but the AI robots will probably take over that too.

[–] futatorius@lemm.ee 13 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

They'll either move up the food chain to higher-touch work where AI can't compete, or they'll do other things.

Keep in mind that most devs aren't really all that good at their jobs, so it will probably be economically beneficial for them to do something else. I say this as a long-time hiring manager with many decades of experience in the field.

It can program in 15 different languages, 95% accuracy with almost no mistakes, can create entire applications in minutes

Only if you believe the hype. It can do that in best-case scenarios when the requirements are written as rigorously as code, or where it's replicating a common pattern.

Do they just become homeless?

During previous layoffs, a lot of them left the field, and some of the rest founded startups. It wasn't always the case that firms were founded by teenaged sociopaths with strong family connections to VC funding. There was a time when they were founded by people who knew how to do things.

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[–] anon_8675309@lemmy.world 13 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Retire. All I ever wanted to be was a programmer. If I can’t do that anymore I’ll just retire. I’m saving/investing every penny I can just in case.

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[–] phughes@lemmy.ca 12 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

This thread is full of people comparing OPs hypothetical about 10 years from now with last year's capability.

Will AI progress that fast? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It probably won't get that good, but it doesn't matter. If it gets as good as your average junior that's going to mean something like 100% increase in productivity, which means 50% as many jobs and that's going to be a BIG FUCKING DEAL.

Especially when it's going to be replacing a lot of other types of office workers. What kind of job is your average software dev going to transition to? Tech support? Not anymore. UI Designer? LOL. Manager? And who are you going to be managing?

If the US doesn't hit 15-20% unemployment in the next 10 years I'll eat my hat. I'll be eating it either way because I'll be starving to death.

[–] Nalivai@lemmy.world 5 points 2 weeks ago

There is a hard limitation on LLM, it doesn't and by definition can not have a criteria for truth, and unless something completely new emerges, it will never replace a junior, really. Some managers can be convinced that it did, but that will be a lie and the company that believes it will suffer.
It can transform some junior jobs for sure, some people might need to relearn some practices, there will probably be some shift in some methods, but unless something fundamentally new will appear, there is no way LLM will meaningfully replace meaningful amount of people

[–] SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone 12 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (2 children)

Welcome to being a luddite.

It's not actually about hating the progression of technology, it's realizing that your labor has been leveraged against you. You will not bear any of the true fruits, because your bosses will use the fruits of your labor to purchase the AI to replace you.

It's because the labor market is fucked and developers needed unions 20 years ago instead of thinking because they were "rockstars" and "made the big bucks" that they didn't need anybody else.

We wouldn't have to ask these kind of questions if the fruits of our labor were being equitably distributed.

Basically in the scenario described, this is what's happening to developers:

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[–] vane@lemmy.world 10 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Writing code is last thing you want to do as senior SWE because every line of code is potential debt and maintenence problem.
The just write code bro, figure out things later attitude is good for R&D, MVP and POC that is like 10% of job.

Just like with art, writing code like drawing is just a skill. AI is trying to replace the obvious part (that is actually the reward from thinking and describing problem in your head) because it can't replace thinking. Removing rewards bring us to depression, depression bring us to death.

Ergo AI will kill economy with no people left to replace it so we will end up to being monkas.
That's why I'd say SWE will go to farm and wait untill people in cities will start starving to death because AI stopped working and there is nobody left to fix it.

[–] realitista@lemm.ee 7 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

It's funny how all trends extrapolated out lead to the plot of Idiocracy.

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[–] AlexisFR@jlai.lu 10 points 2 weeks ago

Why would devs be displaced by an interactive search engine?

[–] lemmeBe@sh.itjust.works 9 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

The same thing that devs displaced by all the CMSs are doing - their jobs, just with another tool in their toolkit.

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[–] MajorHavoc@programming.dev 9 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Homemade pornography, obviously.

But actually, I'll limit myself to fixing deployment pipelines, correcting business specification mistakes, helping business leaders understand how computers work at all, mitigating moderate security issues, and finding a new job when the unmitigated severe security issues drive me employer bankrupt.

So essentially, exactly how i spend my day today, but with less typing.

And more nude photography, of course.

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[–] AceFuzzLord@lemm.ee 9 points 2 weeks ago (13 children)

They're probably gonna laugh at the absurdity of the situation because some new popular language will come along and the AI will be back to pushing out broken code. That, or laugh because the code in well used languages will include a shit ton of vulnerabilities that wouldn't be present if real devs had to double check code before pushing it out to the public.

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[–] gedaliyah@lemmy.world 9 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

I'm not a programmer, but I don't think I'd pay for code that was 95% accurate. That sounds buggy af

[–] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 5 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I am a programmer, and I also wouldn't stand for that either. We also introduce bugs and are probably around that 95% rate, but at least we know the most important uses are correct and the person who introduced them can usually fix them quickly. With AI, there's no guarantee where the bugs will occur.

[–] monogram@feddit.nl 1 points 6 days ago

Nor has any person built up the mental modal to read it properly let alone fix it

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[–] hellothere@sh.itjust.works 9 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)
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[–] whotookkarl@lemmy.world 8 points 2 weeks ago

Fixing broken software some robot pushed to prod

[–] ubergeek@lemmy.today 6 points 2 weeks ago

Thats a whole lot of heavy assumptions, doing some really heavy lifting.

[–] Vipsu@lemmy.world 6 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (3 children)

Honestly people are getting distracted here. Now lets say A.I makes developers 50% more productive thats a huge boost for smaller companies with only handful of developers.

Many companies are only thinking about reducing costs for themselves but at the same time they're freeing up a lot of talent for new and old competitors.

Here's some food for thought:

  • Open source developers may use A.I to develop better software to close gap between paid alternatives. (Blender, Gimp, Krita, Linux distributions, mastodon, lemmy, pixelfed)
  • Many LLM's can already be ran freely and locally. These will only get better as technology progresses. This can make selling/profiting from A.I services a lot harder
  • A.I may be used to block ads or obfuscate (create bunch of fake data) user data that is sold to advertisers.
  • Some media sites are already using A.I to write articles. Whats the point when users may just use chatbot to get all the information without ever engaging with the source.

These are just few that come to mind. but the unkowns with this are quite terrifying.

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[–] maniii@lemmy.world 6 points 2 weeks ago

Ai-herder or Robot-farmer or Llama-raiser etc etc

devs still needed to ensure code is sane and not some insane hallucination.

[–] Max_P@lemmy.max-p.me 6 points 2 weeks ago

Ultimately we need to prepare for a future where the majority of jobs have been automated and need a way to keep the economy going. Everyone being employed full time is just something that is not sustainable on the long term as technology progresses. We'll eventually need UBI because otherwise all the money will be transferred to nearly fully automated companies controlling basically everything. We just won't be able to keep everyone employed without creating a massive amount of bullshit jobs nobody really wants to do. The better way is UBI and people going into research or creative works, and aim higher like space travel.

We're not quite ready yet and people are way too invested in capitalism for this to work just yet. But it will become a necessity eventually. It's not just affecting IT, it's affecting all sectors: we can basically 3D print houses now, we're not far off automating farming either. We will reach a point where most of society has been automated, we can feed everyone effortlessly.

[–] Boomkop3@reddthat.com 6 points 2 weeks ago

They're going to keep doing their job, good luck to some manager who thinks they can be verbose enough to get their idea across

[–] mesamunefire@piefed.social 5 points 2 weeks ago

As a dev, there's still quite a bit ai can't do and will most likely not be able to do.

AI is good at solving old problems but it's not trained on anything new. Its good at boilerplate and templates, but not good at original material. If it gets tremendously better, and really does get to the point where it's better than we are at development, then the industry will shift into prompt engineering. But I can see a huge reduction of jobs.

[–] FartsWithAnAccent@fedia.io 5 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

They'll get jobs as contractors fixing shitty AI code

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[–] BigBenis@lemmy.world 5 points 2 weeks ago

Finally free from the Golden Handcuffs, I'd use my extra time to do something I've always wanted, like music production, which would also inevitably be taken over by AI.

[–] Zementid@feddit.nl 4 points 2 weeks ago

Well before that level of complexity is achieved, the jobs of CEOs and Managers will be gone. Question is, will the Ai CEO really want to risk the safety of a review, knowing that it IS the company. Pump and Dump won't do it any more. Then CEOs need to actually work for their money. (Or well... get replaced by an Ai)

[–] bedlam@lemmy.world 4 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

That's something that we're probably going to have to figure out quickly. We won't though given the lack of accountability of those in power.

If SWEs are losing their jobs you can imagine a lot of other white collar workers will be as well. This would mean you will be competing with many other people in other fields. The large number of unemployed will reduce demand for goods produced by those companies that are also laying off workers due to automation.

This is a bit of a tragedy of the commons where companies adopt the technology to increase profits but actually disrupt the economy, potentially leading to their own collapse.

It's impossible to really prepare for this scenario because it requires you to simultaneously be ready for retirement in the next few years but also riots. I'm just hoping for the best for now.

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