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If US automakers move out, Canada will just move another brand in, Honda, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, lots of options. There will be a huge opening in the truck market too.
We are currently looking at a new truck and had decided on a Ford F150, just waiting until summer, but now, the decision process has reopened, and I will be considering any non-US made truck. Just need alot of towing capacity which seems to be the catch...
Toyota Tundra
Toyota and Honda at least are already here
Those other auto makers will also face "choosing 1 country". I think they are less integrated among crossborder plants for repeated partial assembly steps. AFAIU, the big 3 use canadian parts in engines. Japan/Korea might import their engines. I don't actually know. I do know that Canadian costs are lower than US now. That cheaper steel and aluminum and energy from less supply to US (export tariffs if necessary) can mean a much higher cost differential in favour of Canadian production.
There are 15 car models assembled in Canada. A fair range, but no trucks other than Rav 4. There could be production increases if Canadians just buy from that model selection. There are cars/EVs made in Mexico too.
had decided on a Ford F150
Aluminum tariffs alone are expected to add $6000 in costs to big heavy trucks such as f150.
Yeah but there's a bigger market in the US. And they have more purchasing power. That might be a good enough reason for them to move there. Tariffs will have an impact but that won't matter much. Unfortunately
That is the problem. Incentives to keep at least Canadian production for Canadian demand is basic. But the cost advantage could be high enough to export to US even with tariffs. Canada never buying a US car again, is reason to try to prefer Canada production.
Drop the tariffs on EVs from China and let them have some factories here.
Europe has "reasonable tariff levels" that allowed them to first get some tax revenue, and then noticing the cars were popular they built factories there. Europe is a little different in that it is a very large open market.
Reasonable tariff levels would allow for introduction while still selling our own cars. Plan A of keeping our auto industry, but plan B, have better value cars from China, and never buy another American car again if they abandon us.
Our current tariff levels and attitude towards China, directly copying US policy/attitude, is equivalent to a ban. They can't trust us to be reasonable. Lower tariffs, perhaps with quotas to start, can raise tax revenue, but open the door to future cooperation (plan B)
Thing is it would take up to a decade for the US manufacturing to be all done in the US, Trump gave them 30 days. Canada and Mexico can still work together, so it will not take nearly as long to get the retooling done but it will still be a while. Other car manufacturers will move into Canada and mexico as the US car companies start to collapse, I could see the big 3 leaving the US and trying to work outside of the US I do however cannot see that working out to well for them.