NFL

14

Probably look at SB 42 when the Pats were 16-0 going up against the underdog Giants who ran hot. A quick google search shows the Pats we’re 12 point favorites.

Cowboys by a billion, presumably

18-20 with a prime Alabama moneyline

The undefeated Patriots were a 12 point spread against the wildcard Giants who ran the gauntlet to make the Superbowl in 2007. I can't imagine it'd be much larger than that.

Some of the older spreads are pretty funny. Washington was a 2 point favorite over the 72 Dolphins in their SB.

There has not been a spread over 4.5 since Super Bowl 43.

Bout treefiddy

2007 Patriots were 12.5 point favorites over the Giants. I think that’s about the limit.

The most probable scenario this year would be a top contender vs a weaker division winner; say KC vs ATL. Since the game is played on a neutral field, I’d assume KC would be a 10 point favourite?

You're predicting a falcons Superbowl, my man!

Once you get to 14 I think that’s it for this era barring some freak QB injury on one team

I'd say 13.5

Point spread could be even bigger if any team ever makes it to the Super Bowl but their starting qb gets injured in the conference championship game.

Even with an elite team, I think Cheifs vs eagles would be a pretty low point spread either way but if either team lost their qb and it was the starter, I would expect atleast a full touchdown point swing in that direction.

I’m not a fan of this example

IIRC, 49ers vs Chargers had a spread of 18. Deion and some of the team were out partying that weekend because everyone in the country knew it would be a blowout.

I’d have to agree with what’s been said. You’ll never see a Super Bowl where the favorites are gonna be more than maybe 12 points. The talent disparity simply isn’t going to be there because it’s still gonna be a good team, and it’s extremely difficult to fluke your way into a Super Bowl.

If I recall correctly, the 2001 Rams were favored by 14 points against the Patriots.

.....and the Patriots won.

Doubt you'd ever get more than 10-12 if both teams were healthy.

If you had something like Miami having both Tua and Tyreek injured in the 4th quarter of the AFCCG but holding on to win it, you might see a higher spread.

it all depends on how the season ends and which team is a sleeper for what reason. “nobody wants to matchup with this 7 seed in the playoffs!” but they’re still not favored, they’d have to turn it on like crazy and win some close games, and then face like the Chiefs or Dolphins or Eagles or some other super high powered offense, MAYBE a 7.5 spread cuz they want the house to cash in as much as possible

I would bet KC is going to be about 10 favorites over Phily this year

In 2010 the Seahawks won the NFC west with a 7-9 record, it was a rather ugly season to say the least. This gave them the 4 seed in the playoffs though and behind what is arguably the greatest rushing play in league history by Marshawn Lynch they managed to beat the defending champ Saints at home. The next week they played a very "meh" game against a good Chicago Bears team and lost.

Had the Seahawks though, somehow managed to pull off a win in Chicago they would've hosted the 6 seed Packers in the NFC championship game. Let me put it another way, the UNDER .500 Seattle Seahawks would've hosted the NFC title game in front of that home crowd. Lots of what-ifs but I wonder what kind of spread that SB would've had, Pittsburgh was very good that year and was the AFC representative. I'm thinking at least a 15 pt spread.

In their nearly perfect season, New England was favored over the Giants by 16.5

Found some stats here of NFL conference champions with the lowest point differential: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-conference-champion-team-with-lowest-point-differential

Those famous 2011 Giants are the only conference winning team with a negative differential (-6) and went on to beat the Patriots (+171).

But it's actually the third lowest point differential conference winner, the 2007 Giants (+22), that probably have the biggest spread entering their Super Bowl against those 16-0 Patriots (+315).

That might stand alone as the biggest spread possible for a long time. Especially considering how scoring has changed and defensive isn't deciding games the same way it used to.

Had a certain team made a 4th down conversion last season, there still could’ve been a chance… albeit slim.

If it turns into a Chiefs - Falcons Super Bowl with a large point spread, sell your house, your car, your kidney, and your daughter and bet it all on the Falcons to cover and thank me later. This is how that game will go down:

Chiefs will come out over confident and play like complete garbage because no team plays down to the competition better than the Chiefs. Kadarius Toney will pull a hamstring coming out of the tunnel. Sky Moore will drop every ball thrown his way, eventually start running the wrong routes, try catching balls not meant for him, and dropping those too. Isiah Pacheco, in the days leading up to the Super Bowl, signs a peace treaty with the ground and now runs much more gently on it. What really causes the offense to stall though is Jawaan Taylor getting flagged 7 or 8 times doing the exact same thing the Falcon's right tackle is doing which constantly puts the Falcon's in reasonable field position from which they use their MVP, Younghoe Koo, to put themselves up ahead 12-0 going into half time.

After the half, the Chiefs offense stalls out on 3rd and inches a few times when, instead of just handing the ball off and taking it right up the middle, Reid calls for a triple reverse jet sweep and some play they made up called duck, duck, goose that fails spectacularly. Meanwhile, the offensive failures combined with multiple Chiefs penalties, including an unsportsmanlike conduct call on Chris Jones for looking violently at Desmond Riddler, has allowed Koo to carve up the Chiefs special teams by adding a couple more field goals and the score is now 18-0 going into the fourth quarter.

At this point, the Falcons have paid the Patrick price. Mahomes just starts scrambling for first downs and throwing the ball to Travis Kelce because Atlanta's defense, like all others, apparently forgot he was an eligible receiver. After the Chiefs score two touchdowns and a field goal (that would have been a touchdown had it not been called back due to a questionable offensive pass interference call on Mecole Hardman), the Chiefs have the ball with time running out down18-17 while threatening to get into field goal range. On a 4th a and 5, Mahomes throws a 15 yard pass to Rashee Rice that would have put the Chiefs in field goal range had he come down with it. But wait... there is a flag. Replays show an Atlanta defensive back grabbing Rice's face mask and horse collar all while giving him a reach around. After a short officiating gathering, they decide to call it pass interference and moves KC into field goal range where they win the game.

Afterward, r/nfl is littered with multiple posts claiming this Superbowl needs an asterisk and the officials gave the game to KC using such classic lines as, "that facemask penalty where he ripped Rice's helmet off was very ticky tack," and "at the end of the game, the officials just need to let them play." A Chief's fan who is new to r/nfl creates a post showing multiple angles of the attempted murder of Rice and explains in detail how it was the correct call only to have the post removed as low effort while 2 posts below it is a tweet by Mike Florio saying Joe Burrow probably doesn't even like Skyline Chili which is allowed to stay for some reason.

Looking at tcu here

stop I can only get so erect

24.5 point spread. Chiefs cover, winning 28-3.

31-9 Chiefs loss

You could have a 20+ spread if a team that was highly dependent on three players (imagine Kelce, Mahomes and Jones get injured in the AFC championship) while an NFC team absolutely steamrolls the NFC playoffs and wins every game by 40. It would have to be something like that or a matchup that had already occurred in the season and it's obvious that the losing team has no answer for the other team.