News

Something something Manifest Destiny

So, this is wild speculation, but I'll tell you my guess. I think it's about TSMC, the world's leading semiconductor manufacturer. China has, for years, been saying that Taiwan isn't an independent country, but is instead "Chinese Taipei," a part of China. They've been using this idea for years to gradually build towards an invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan, of course, does consider itself an independent nation. The US officially holds no position on this question, which is kinda bonkers; there's this whole diplomatic dance about whether the US would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. The US might not care if it weren't for TSMC, which runs the plants that produce a huge proportion of the world's CPUs and GPUs and AI chips. All the best chip-making technology and know-how is with TSMC. It's a major vulnerability in the US supply chain.

China has been ramping things up in the past several years. It's suspected that a big part of why they're going along with the Russian invasion of Ukraine is that Russia probably promised to go along with China invading Taiwan in exchange. It's all very sub-rosa, but there's been so much military maneuvering and posturing and so on back and forth around Taiwan that it's been kind of dizzying.

This is, unfortunately, part of why China was enthusiastic about getting Trump back into the White House. Trump's policies of isolating the US from its military allies, instigating worldwide trade chaos, and cozying up to dictators make the conditions a lot more ripe for China to make a move on Taiwan. And since the US has never been able to actually talk about Taiwan before, it's gonna look absolutely batshit to the majority of Americans if China invades Taiwan and the US government suddenly wants to go to war against China over this, which seems like a huge risk. But since, as Trump so eloquently put it, "everything is computer," we basically can't stand by and let China take Taiwan without a fight.

So he's trying to gin up sentiment against China on his own terms to lay the groundwork for a war that seems increasingly inevitable.