this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2023
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Herbert has played in 59 career games: 58 regular season games and 1 playoff game.

So in slightly more than 10% of his career games, the Chargers score 30 or more points and lose. Those specific games were:

  • 10-4-2020 31-38 loss to TB
  • 11-1-2020 30-31 loss to DEN
  • 1-9-2022 32-35 loss to LV
  • 1-14-2023 30-31 loss to JAX (playoff)
  • 9-10-2023 34-36 loss to MIA
  • 11-12-2023 38-41 loss to DET

This is obviously not accounting for defensive scores, short fields, etc. but is instead just a simple observation.

For comparison's sake, I looked at Tom Brady. He's played a long time, right? So surely he would have a bunch of these games, too.

Brady played in 383 career games: 335 regular season games and 48 playoff games. In those games, Brady's team scored 30+ points and lost just nine times, or just over 2%. Those specific games were:

  • 1-21-2007 34-38 loss to IND (playoff)
  • 11-15-2009 — 34-35 loss to IND
  • 9-25-2011 — 31-34 loss to BUF
  • 9-23-2012 — 30-31 loss to BAL
  • 12-16-2012 — 34-41 loss to SF
  • 10-1-2017 — 30-33 loss to CAR
  • 2-4-2018 33-41 loss to PHI (playoff)
  • 12-9-2018 — 33-34 loss to MIA
  • 10-2-2022 — 31-41 loss to KC

I also quickly looked at some of the best current QBs just to get a sense of what Herbert's contemporaries experience:

  • Joe Burrow has had 3 such games (all regular season, 2 in his abbreviated rookie year) of 58 games total, ~5%
  • Josh Allen has had 4 such games (3 regular season, 1 in the famous KC playoff loss) of 94 games total, ~4%
  • Tua Tagovailoa has never once scored 30 points and lost in 45 career games (though I don't think he started/finished all of them)
  • Jalen Hurts has had 2 such games (1 regular season, 1 in last year's Super Bowl) of 58 games total, ~3.5%
  • Patrick Mahomes has had 8 such games (7 regular season, 1 playoffs) of 103 games total, ~8%... these were pretty prevalent (relatively speaking) early in Mahomes career but are rarer over the last few years as KC's defense has really emerged
  • Yesterday was Lamar Jackson's second-ever game scoring 30+ and losing out of 84 games he was involved, ~2% (though he didn't start in all of them)

In conclusion: Fire Brandon Staley

Also note: It's late and I'm just counting these on pro-football-reference; I may have messed up the count or the math!

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[–] According_Floor881@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

I think this has less to do with Justin Herbert and I'm more so that the chargers choke and have a history of choking long before this guy was in the league.

[–] DBreezy69@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Thanks Brandon Staley. Thanks Dean Spanos

[–] aerovirus22@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I for one think Staley is doing a bang up job.

[–] Misanthropyandme@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Bowlcut Davis > Spanos

It pains me to say.

[–] aerovirus22@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Davis for all his faults has a true passion. He wants to live up to his dad, and make Raider Nation proud and something to be proud of. Spanos just seems to want his investment to gain value. He doesn't care what his fan think of him.

[–] TripleThreatTua@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

At least Davis realized he made a mistake and fired McDaniels

[–] Aolian_Am@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Your forgetting Telesco.

I think they need a defense oriented coach next.

[–] Rubberducky690@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Didn’t even mention Jared Goff as one of the best QBs in the league…

[–] maple2848@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

He did his best on the offense and make the team moved and scores but he didn't play defense. The Chargers defense sometimes was good but they aren't consistent/solid the whole game.

[–] Relatively_Cool@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

If you drop down to 25+ points rather than 30+ points, the win percentage disparity between him and the others is much bigger. He wins ~60% of those games and the QB average for the top 10 QBs is something like 80-85%

[–] y_wont_my_line_block@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Here's another fun one. When. Justin Fields team scores 25+ points, the Bears are 2-6....

Not sure what's worse. That it's only happened 8 times or that the Bears lose 75% of those games.

[–] venk@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

That’s actually not that surprising, I’d bet many of those Ls are defenses going to prevent in the 3rd quarter .

[–] Acceptable-Story-83@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

The Bears suck in general and lose 75% of their games regardless lmao doesn't matter who is at QB or who is the coach. Zero weapons (DJ Moore is hardly a #1), non existent run game, shitty O-Line, inconsistent defense, and Fields turning the ball over.

[–] jrod41523@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

time to fire Staley, who is supposed to be a defensive mastermind head coach …. he’s clearly the problem

[–] Soyeahnahh@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

He deserves better. He’s gonna rot in Los Angeles the same way Matt Stafford did in Detroit

[–] Xaxziminrax@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Philip Rivers minus the kids

[–] Misdirected_Colors@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Wild that they "stacked" that defense and it's performing so poorly.

[–] Ambitious_Reporter38@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Maybe Herbert is overrated. Surrounded by talent, barely sniffs the playoffs

[–] 2Blitz@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

What talent? His defense is full of "names" who aren't performing

[–] CarolinaMtnBiker@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

James, Mack and Bosa are top tier defenders and start on any nfl team.

[–] blueiguana675@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

James hasn't looked good from watching the games. I don't know if the numbers back this up or not. The secondary as a whole has been bad to me.

[–] Sniperlake21@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Not the way they are playing this year. Mack had one game with 6 sacks, Bosa I good for a sack + stupid penalty every game, James is so talented but kills the team with constant personal fouls or automatic 1st down penalties

[–] Simmumah@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

The dude scored 38 points lol what do you want him to do?

[–] Simmumah@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Its like rewatching Stafford's career. Staley NEEDS to be canned. That team has WAY too much talent to be 4-5 again. You could see Keenan Allen look so pissed off at the end before the game was over and it just says it all.

[–] ianbits@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Matt Stafford 2.0

[–] Comprehensive_Main@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

The Jacksonville game Herbert also has to share the blame. Herbert only led 1 scoring drive in the second quarter and that was a field goal. Herbert’s defense failed him but he didn’t perform well in that playoff game as well.

[–] CunningRunt@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Let's see what the r/nfl ~~QB_WINZZ~~ QB_LOSSES meter reads today!

[ ~~Wins~~ Losses are a QB Stat! | ~~Wins~~ Losses are NOT a QB stat!]

.............^....................................................

[–] LiesInRuins@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Justin Herbert sucks at defense. He’s like Caleb Williams.

[–] MikeBinfinity@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

It's crazy how many people don't understand this.

[–] i2WalkedOnJesus@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)
[–] Otherwise_Awesome@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

I read this in Homer Simpson's voice

[–] gigglefarting@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Maybe he should stop scoring so much

[–] cstrifeVII@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

People keep saying it and I agree... this is so reminiscent of the 2010's era Lions with Stafford.

[–] Otherwise_Awesome@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

I keep telling my friend this but he'll point out that loss to the Jags in the playoffs constantly. I'm like, the Chargers defense went from 10th his rookie year to 23rd, 20th and now is 29th. It's so HARD to win games in a shootout consistently.

[–] joahatwork2@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

The Aaron Rodgers

[–] PigSlam@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Was their super fan there to be disappointed?

[–] PigSlam@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

When the score was 24-24, I told my wife it’s too bad the chargers were gonna lose because they’re looking great, but they always lose those games.

[–] GHamPlayz@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

The perfect Phillip Rivers successor

[–] xTodd_Howard_76@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Nothing about Herbert impresses me. He's a choke artist. He's Rivers 2.0. He's part of the problem. But go on with these posts.

[–] XxmilkjugsxX@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Is Herbie on that Rodgers career arc?

[–] Dijohn17@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

How the hell did the Chargers not learn from the Phillip Rivers era? This is Rivers 2.0

[–] TitShark@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Why isn’t he better at defense?

[–] tofulo@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Literally Philip Rivers

[–] cwesttheperson@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Defensive guru Staley.

[–] Ravenlen@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

As an IDP player, I thought Derwin James was one of the best Safeties in the league. Nope, he just stops a lot of big plays because that defense is horrible and he's often the last man to stop the play.

[–] SerEx0@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

The Chargers spend a boatload of money/cap space on Defensive players that they then squander by having Staley as the HC

[–] sir_brockton_@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Do it with Brees. Bet he’s up there too.

They remind me of each other. Just as talented as the best qb’s of their era, but defense lets them down regularly.