Before I debunk the common arguments used against Sam Howell, I want to remind everyone that this is his first year starting. Even thought he’s not technically a rookie QB, it’s fair to asses him as a rookie. Typically for rookie QBs the most important factor is improvement week by week. Sam has been consistently improving over the season, and recently playing like a veteran Qb.
Sam is Turnover Prone: It’s easy to look at the season stats and come to that conclusion. Most Sam Howell/commanders fans were cringing during the Bills game. Other than week 4 against the Bills where Sam had 4 interceptions, he has not thrown more than 1 interception in any other game. 40% of his interceptions on the season are from ONE stinker game, which also happened to be his 4th NFL start. Since then, his interception numbers have trended down. Only throwing 4 interceptions in the last 7 weeks. Meaning Sam had the same amount of interceptions in one game, than he had 7 weeks after that game. He’s also has thrown 1 more interception than Pat Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Yet, Interceptions are only brought up for Sam Howell.
Sam is Taking a lot of sacks: It is very true that Sam started the season as a sack machine. Some of the Sacks were on the O line, and a large percentage were on Sam. Like interceptions, his sack issue has trended down as he has gained more experience. Young QBs take a lot of sacks, which is true for future STAR qbs as well. Now, examining the last 3 weeks his sack rate has dropped to top #7 in the league. Sam is now getting the ball out quicker, and is more willing to throw to check downs. His sack issue is slowly being fixed as experience is gained by him and his 27th ranked offensive line.
He passes so much his stats are inflated: He does pass a lot. But, that doesn’t hurt an argument for him being a good QB. Other important passing metrics are high or trending in a good direction. Check this out:
- Cmp%: current rank: 15.
- he’s higher than CJ stroud, who the media praises, and is one behind Joe Burrow (14) and two behind Justin Herbert (13). Passer rating: rank 15.
Yet another Stat for him that would be higher if not for a few stinker games.
- higher than Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson.
Source for stats: https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/
Reminder: he’s in his first year starting and has shown TONS of improvement from his first game.
He’s behind so he has to throw a lot: Eric Bienemy has a Pass happy scheme. He wants to pass if he is ahead or behind. Commanders record 4-6 is certainly not great. Again, Bienemy runs a pass happy scheme. If the commanders lead or are behind, he’s going to pass. He’s actually put up his best numbers when EB ran the ball at a typical rate for an NFL, as it left the defense guessing. Sam passing so much likely hurts his numbers as the defense can expect the pass. Compared to a more balanced attack where a defense is left guessing.
It’s all EB at not Howell: While we don’t know exactly how EB has developed Sam, one thing is clear. EB is developing as a play called and OC along side same. EB has had PLENTY of questionable play calls, and sometimes not the best game plans. As I mentioned earlier EB does not run the ball. Ever. A more balanced rushing attack would likely IMPROVE Sam stats (other than yards) as it will keep the defense guessing. Sam in-spite of up and down play calling, is playing at a high level.
Sam isn’t a winner: The commanders have one of the worse defenses statistically this year. Sam led game winning/tying drives against the eagles and Seahawks, for his defense and coaches to let him down. Seeing a QB play his BEST football at the end of games screams winner. Even tho the commanders lost those games, it’s hard to put it on Sam…
Conclusion: I conclude with the commanders have found there guy for the future. Clearly the commanders need to build around sam, and not even think about drafting a QB. You draft a QB HOPING it would look as good in 11 starts as Sam has looked this year. Give him a defense and Oline, and see what he can do.
