this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2023
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[–] Dkarma@lemmy.world 105 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (4 children)

Fta: "It’s a one-sided bet,” said John Y. Campbell, a Harvard economist who has argued that the 30-year mortgage contributes to inequality. “If inflation goes way up, the lenders lose and the borrowers win. Whereas if inflation goes down, the borrower just refinances.”

Yeah won't someone think of those poor lenders who make...let's check my notes....130% on their investment or more over the 30 years and it is amortized so you pay the most interest up front in the first decade? Even if you refi you still start that interest over and pay thousands in closing costs to the bank on top of it.

Waahhhhhh Cry me a fucking river.

Lmfao The reason rate are locked is obvious.
Why should I lose my home because interest rates changed and your mtg goes up 40%?

That's what happens with 5 -15 year loan terms.
A buddy in the UK is facing this now. Because he can't get a 30 year loan and can't pay off his house he's forced to restrcture and his payment is going from $800 to $1300.

Man look at all that inequality defeated just like the article says it would be...not.

[–] derf82@lemmy.world 26 points 11 months ago (1 children)

And the lenders don’t lose at all! They borrow the money at current rates, and immediately package it off to a mortgage backed security and sell it within weeks of closing. The only potential “loser” is the investor that buys the security, but that’s just the nature of investing.

[–] pensivepangolin@lemmy.world 12 points 11 months ago

Yeh this is just thinly veiled propaganda.

[–] Cornpop@lemmy.world 6 points 11 months ago

Came here to say the same thing. What a bullshit article.

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[–] sylver_dragon@lemmy.world 61 points 11 months ago (7 children)

Ah yes, let's see if we can't pit groups of normal home buyers against each other, while ignoring the institutional investors who are buying up homes to rent out (short or long term). We can also ignore the fucked up trend of building bigger, more expensive housing on lots just barely bigger than the house itself, with the near lack of things like condos, duplexes and multiplexes. Yes, I'll openly admit I would never again live in a place where I share a wall with someone. But, when I was younger and costs mattered more, cheaper, higher density housing made more sense.

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[–] 800XL@lemmy.world 58 points 11 months ago (3 children)

Yeah, the last time the lenders pushed Adjustible Rate Mortgages as a way for borrowers to be able to afford a home with cheap monthly payments it turned out fucking great! Lots of people were able to buy the house of their dreams and the economy flourished for the next decade!

Oh no it didnt. A shit ton of people lost their homes and the banks and mortgage industry pulled a fast one, lied, and hid the evidence when found out. Oh and the economy took a shit!

[–] ristoril_zip@lemmy.zip 4 points 11 months ago

C'mon it worked out for the banks though!! The ones that are still around, anyway....

[–] ohlaph@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I took a combo loan, one 10 year ARM, and a 20 year fixed. I know I probably won't get a better deal when my rates inevitably increase at year 10, but saving almost 1.5 percent over ten years is nice. Hoping to have it paid off by year 15, so 5 years at a higher rate should be okay for now. Short-term arms are crazy.

[–] pahlimur@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago (2 children)

If your in the US you should have refinanced in 2021 if it was an option. It's cheaper for me to pay the minimum on my home loan than it is to pay it off. Inflation is significantly more than my mortgage interest rate.

Hopefully it works out for you, but I'd be legit terrified of the moment that loan becomes adjustable rate.

[–] ohlaph@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

And we still have 8.8 years roughly, so we're trying to pay what we can before we reach that point. It should give us time. Our ARM and fixed arw actually for a 20 year pay off. We could refinance later, but goal is to have the fixed paid off and 75 percent of the ARM paid off at year ten, then that tives us roughly 5 years for the rest.

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[–] MaxVoltage@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago
[–] Furedadmins@lemmy.world 30 points 11 months ago (7 children)

Something is good for consumers so it must be a problem. Fucking economists.

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[–] StrawberryPigtails@lemmy.sdf.org 20 points 11 months ago (2 children)

And they almost completely ignore the elephant in the room. Nobody has been building new homes!

[–] PP_BOY_@lemmy.world 24 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (4 children)

Nobody has been building new homes!

Do you live in the US? People have been flocking out of the cities to the rural parts of the country because of WFH. I work in general residential contracting in a town that was 20,000 citizens five years ago and is now over 100,000, and we've had to turn away probably 50 potential clients this year alone. We're booked under contract for the next four years.

People are absolutely buying new homes, but not having to make daily commutes to the downtown office is giving them the ability to build in historically cheaper parts of the country.

[–] ultranaut@lemmy.world 16 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

New home construction in the US was massively reduced back in the 2008 GFC and has remained depressed ever since. It's hyperbolic to say nobody is building, but there's been fewer new homes being added for awhile now and that's one of the central problems in the current housing affordability crisis.

[–] Dkarma@lemmy.world 15 points 11 months ago (1 children)

And very few of them are under 350k That's the real issue

[–] anon_8675309@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago

Yes. Nobody is building starter homes. Even the 50+ communities going up have 4 bedrooms and 2200 sq ft.

[–] TurnItOff_OnAgain@lemmy.world 7 points 11 months ago

We live in a rural ish area 2-3 hours from DC and homes are going up like crazy. In the last 2 years there have been 3 or 4 100+ home subdivisions built. As I understand it though they are almost exclusively rentals owned by the builder themselves.

[–] Burninator05@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago

That sounds horrible for that city. A five times population increase in only 5 years seems like something that no city would be able to manage well.

[–] StrawberryPigtails@lemmy.sdf.org 4 points 11 months ago

Sure do! Been living in Alabama for almost 20 years at this point. Grew up in Minnesota. While I appreciate how slammed your profession is right now, you’re not really having an much of an effect on the market just yet. And none at all at the lower end of the market. I have seen a lot of really nice builds at price points I can’t afford though.

The mediam household income in Alabama is $54,943 and the median individual income is $30,458 according to the US Census Bureau. My wife and I combined make roughly $110k with myself making $70k. My wife is a mental health therapist with a master’s degree and I drive a truck. We’re lucky, but a lot of folks ain’t.

Growing up I was told, when your buying a house, your budget should be no more 2 times 1 persons (the husband’s) salary. Back in 2005 Dave Ramsey said no more than 4 times the household income. I did a bit of digging using both guides to see just what folks could afford in our local property market right now at the most common wages in the area, and the pickings are pretty slim until you get to the wages common for skilled trades. Given how frequently my wife, or I have been out of work, I decided use only a single income in my searches.

Here’s a paste dump of what I found:

$7.50/hr @ 40hr/Wk = $15,600/yr

X2 Gross = $31,200 https://www.zillow.com/tuscaloosa-al/?searchQueryState=%7B%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22isMapVisible%22%3Afalse%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-87.703283%2C%22east%22%3A-87.366123%2C%22south%22%3A33.028236%2C%22north%22%3A33.454732%7D%2C%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%2245404%22%2C%22regionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A14208%2C%22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%2C%22price%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A31200%7D%2C%22mp%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A166%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%7D

X4 gross = $62,400 https://www.zillow.com/tuscaloosa-al/?searchQueryState=%7B%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22isMapVisible%22%3Afalse%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-87.703283%2C%22east%22%3A-87.366123%2C%22south%22%3A33.028236%2C%22north%22%3A33.454732%7D%2C%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%2245404%22%2C%22regionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A14208%2C%22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%2C%22price%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A62400%7D%2C%22mp%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A333%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%7D

$16.00/hr @40hr/wk = $33,280/yr

x2 gross = $66,560 https://www.zillow.com/tuscaloosa-al/?searchQueryState=%7B%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22isMapVisible%22%3Afalse%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-87.703283%2C%22east%22%3A-87.366123%2C%22south%22%3A33.028236%2C%22north%22%3A33.454732%7D%2C%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%2245404%22%2C%22regionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A14208%2C%22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%2C%22price%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A66560%7D%2C%22mp%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A355%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%7D

x4 gross = $133,120 https://www.zillow.com/tuscaloosa-al/?searchQueryState=%7B%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22isMapVisible%22%3Afalse%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-87.703283%2C%22east%22%3A-87.366123%2C%22south%22%3A33.028236%2C%22north%22%3A33.454732%7D%2C%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%2245404%22%2C%22regionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A14208%2C%22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%2C%22price%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A133120%7D%2C%22mp%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A710%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%7D

$22.00/hr @ 40hr/Wk = $45,760/yr

x2 gross = $91,520 https://www.zillow.com/tuscaloosa-al/?searchQueryState=%7B%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22isMapVisible%22%3Afalse%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-87.703283%2C%22east%22%3A-87.366123%2C%22south%22%3A33.028236%2C%22north%22%3A33.454732%7D%2C%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%2245404%22%2C%22regionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A14208%2C%22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%2C%22price%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A91520%7D%2C%22mp%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A488%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%7D

x4 gross = $183,040 https://www.zillow.com/tuscaloosa-al/?searchQueryState=%7B%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22isMapVisible%22%3Afalse%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-87.703283%2C%22east%22%3A-87.366123%2C%22south%22%3A33.028236%2C%22north%22%3A33.454732%7D%2C%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%2245404%22%2C%22regionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A14208%2C%22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%2C%22price%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A183040%7D%2C%22mp%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3Anull%2C%22max%22%3A975%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%7D

[–] andrew@lemmy.stuart.fun 10 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Don't worry, we're actually building a lot of them out here in the totally-long-term-sustainable desert of Phoenix area.

[–] Dkarma@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)
[–] anon_8675309@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago

There’s plumbing. Just no water.

[–] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 16 points 11 months ago

Sort of true. We bought our house in 2008 and got a 3-something% API fixed-rate mortgage. We hate this town and we know where we want to move, but we can't afford a higher rate mortgage, which we would have anywhere we moved. My wife has amazing credit and the house is in her name only (my credit is shit), so she'd still get a decent loan, but fixed-rate and anywhere near 3%? Probably not anymore.

[–] TheBananaKing@lemmy.world 12 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Australia here and you get like 3 years fixed if you're lucky.

Here, enter into this lifetime contract; after three years the terms change to whatever the hell I say they are, and you say sir yes sir or I destroy you.

[–] LoganNineFingers@lemmy.ca 4 points 11 months ago

Canada's the same to a max of 5 yrs. You can get longer ones but the rates suck

My understanding is because it's Canadian law that after 5 years banks can no longer charge you for early cancellation. In the states they can for the entire duration of the mortgage. Which, benefits the banks when rates go up, the buyer when rates go down (and the opposite in the states)

[–] omgarm@feddit.nl 3 points 11 months ago (5 children)

Netherlands here: I had no idea the US has 30 year fixed rates. That is insane. Our housing market is fucked and rates are only locked for 10 to 15 years these days.

[–] Dkarma@lemmy.world 11 points 11 months ago (4 children)

It's awesome knowing my payment won't change aside from maybe a bit more each year due to any potential tax increase!

How do you not panic realizing interest rates are rocketing and you'll be priced out of your own home and you can see it coming and there's nothing you can do???

What a shit system that must feel like.

[–] monkeytennis@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

It's crazy in the UK too, where 3-5 year fixes are common. I've know folk who at renewal next year will be paying £500-£800 extra, each month.

My biggest impact has been gas and elec, which maybe added that amount to my annual bill. I can't imagine the stress.

[–] r00ty@kbin.life 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Timing worked really well for us. Finished a 5 year term just before the larger rate rises. Broker was telling me to ride it out with a tracker and the inflation/interest rises will be short lived.

Nah, got a 10 year fixed rate at a rate that is around half the current BOE base. He just couldn't understand that we're fine with 10 years at a rate that might be even double the rate banks offer in say 2-3 years. Because we can afford it fine. The risk is low with the fixed rate, whereas the risk of a tracker/standard mortgage almost has to upper limit.

Also, if the rate actually came down to half our fixed rate it would potentially be worth the penalty to exit early. It's still kinda win/win in the UK, but timing can screw you over.

[–] monkeytennis@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

It just feels like a huge gamble. I went the tracker route between 2012 and 2018 only because I didn't want the overpayment restrictions imposed by fixed deals.

Luckily it worked out, had I gone for a fixed rate I'd still be slowly paying it off, at a higher rate.

For every person who did well, there's someone else who didn't, mostly through unlucky timing.

[–] r00ty@kbin.life 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

How much did you want to overpay? Pretty sure we're allowed to do something like 10% of remaining balance per year. Which, so far at least has been fine.

And yes, this is generally how the banks work the risks I suspect. They will lose out on some deals, but gain hugely from others. For us, after 10 years of fixed payments there won't be much left (even less if kitchen appliances stop failing and giving us ways to not put money onto the mortgage)

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[–] omgarm@feddit.nl 2 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Part of your house is paid off in that time. All mortgages are structured so that in 30 years they are paid in full. So if in 10 or 15 years you need to refinance somehow it will be cheaper than financing 100% of a residence.

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[–] stolid_agnostic@lemmy.ml 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Most people can't afford the real cost of a home and instead end up paying something like 2.5 times the value in interest over those 30 years. Those who can will always go for a 15 year loan and try to pay it off somewhere in the 10 - 12 year range, the rest just pay interest for decades.

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[–] EssentialCoffee@midwest.social 2 points 11 months ago

You can choose to have a lower term mortgage if you want to.

[–] lobut@lemmy.ca 2 points 11 months ago

Canadian here. It's 5 years for us!

[–] mean_bean279@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (5 children)

You can also get 15 year loans with fixed rates here in the states. They’re usually .1% better on the interest rate compared to a 30 year, so for most people it doesn’t make sense to go with a 15 year when you can pay substantially less on a 30. Plus homes here are very much a very safe investment. When you own the home you only pay property tax generally after you pay the mortgage and in states like California that can mean an incredibly cheap place to live once paid (I’m talking 100s of dollars a year, though that will go up over time).

People bitch about housing here in the states, and it’s definitely not as good as it once was, but it’s also not as bad as many other places. I travel to Canada regularly and their shit is fucked. 😅

[–] SCB@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

When you own the home you only pay property tax generally after you pay the mortgage and in states like California that can mean an incredibly cheap place to live once paid (I’m talking 100s of dollars a year, though that will go up over time).

This is actually a significant cause of California's housing crisis.

[–] RaoulDook@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Are you saying that people living in the homes that they own are causing the housing crisis? Or what?

[–] EssentialCoffee@midwest.social 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Kind of yeah. Prop 13 definitely is part of the issue.

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