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What do you think the trajectory is for Victor Wembanyama's three point shooting? (alien.top)

submitted 10 months ago by joshuamarkrsantos@alien.top to c/nba@nba.space

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First and foremost, I'm a huge fan of Victor. He's a very talented player and he has a bright future ahead of him. However, at 28.4%, his three point shooting has been downright atrocious so far. I've watched some Spurs games this season where teams would block his path to the rim, cut off passing options, and let him fire away from three because they know that he wouldn't be able to make them pay.

To put things into perspective, Josh Smith, a player who was notorious for shooting his own team out of games, has a career three point percentage of 28.5%. Charles Barkley, the worst volume three point shooter in NBA History, has a career percentage of 26.6%. The fact that Victor's three point percentage lines up with the percentages of these guys is not good. Even a player like Russell Westbrook has a higher 3 point percentage than Victor at 31.6%.

However, he can improve. His stroke looks fine and he could improve his shot selection. He takes many threes which are not in-rhythm. His percentage could definitely grow up if he solely takes spot up threes like Yuta Watanabe, PJ Tucker, Grant Williams, and Grayson Allen. It would also be good to take threes as a trailer in transition or in a pick and pop situation like Kevin Love, Dirk, Al Horford, Brook Lopez, and Chet Holmgren (at least in the games he's played in so far).

How do you think this will go? Will he improve and become like Luka Doncic (who was a horrible three point shooter in his first few seasons but is now hitting 42.2% of his threes)? Or will he become a liability from deep who continues to keep firing away? (ex: Russell Westbrook, Josh Smith, Charles Barkley, Antoine Walker, Jerry Stackhouse)

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[–] LoWE11053211@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

69%

[–] CrissCrossAppleSos@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

His shot doesn’t look broken, so you’d have to assume it improves at some point. But yeah, he’s bad for now

[–] ABentPlant@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

I don’t think he’ll ever be 40%, but he could be a 37-38% on decent volume in a few seasons

[–] bobbdac7894@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

He was a mediocre/bad 3 point shooter even in Europe. People are assuming it will get better for some reason. Maybe it will. But I don’t think it’s a sure thing at all.

[–] will_chill420@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

It's a concern usually when a guy is clanking FTs along with 3s. He's nearly 80% on FT, so that's usually a sign of decent repeatable mechanics. I think you worry more about the shooting trajectory of a rookie like Ausar Thompson although he looks like a very promising player in other aspects of the game.

[–] figgnootun@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago (2 children)

He’s shooting 37.5% on pull 1.9 pull up 3s per game and 24% on 3.9 catch and shoot 3s per game. He’s also shooting 35% percent on wide open threes, 30% on open threes, and 17% on tightly covered threes. He seems to rush his shot at times but when he gets it off in rhythm like on his 1 dribble pull ups he’s been quite good.

I would expect him to become a league average shooter on good volume for a big because of his ft rate and solid mechanics. I also think the potential to be an elite shooter is there but wouldn’t expect that rn.

[–] notcool_5354@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Tks for the data. Next step this year is to shoot smarter 3. He will then have next summer to improve like kj

[–] swanpenguin@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Love this data. Backs up how I’ve felt about his shooting too.

[–] dash_44@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

He takes tough 3s

I think the the % will get better as he becomes a better shooter and also improves his shot selection.

I wouldn’t read too much into this right now. He’s basically like a new super hero trying to figure out the limits of powers

[–] ColdCocking@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Not nearly as much arc on it due to his height.

[–] Large_Mango@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

He’s 19 guys…patience Danielson

[–] junkit33@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

3P% tends to follow FT% the majority of the time. (Westbrook a rare but notable exception)

Guys like Smith and Barkley were bad FT shooters.

If Wemby is really an 80%-ish FT shooter, then there's no reason he can't become a 36-38% 3P-shooter. Doesn't mean he will, but history says he certainly can.

[–] domingodlf@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

As long as the mechanics look good and the ft% is good, which both are, there's no need to worry. It'll come. He'll probably be at least league average on ok volume